Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

If BTC rises to $100000 how will that effect earnings

No effect....

 

[jkirkwood001]

What Gross Margin (GM) does Tesla need to print in 2022 Q2 to achieve an average GM of 30% over the past 4 quarters? I believe that is the trigger which releases the final tranche of Elon's 2012 CEO Compensation plan (which expires in Aug 2022 if not achieved). Thus, I expect this is the motivation and the actual goal, not some arbitrary level like 31% GM in Q2.

Sooo... as shareholders, are we hoping they don't meet this target? Or are we feeling warm and fuzzy for Elon and thinking he needs a few more billions to buy things, nameless thwings...?

I'm joking because, as the world's richest person, I don't think Elon is doing anything any more for his personal wealth. I don't think that's his motivation at all anymore (I doubt it ever was). I mean, how many T-shirts does a guy have to buy?

 

[dm28997]

If BTC rises to $100000 how will that effect earnings

For Q3

 

[GOVA]

The Giga-Texas battery has not been officialy opened in full by Munro (yet)

I think they might have received an inofficial request to postpone it for a bit...

 

[WattsHappening]

For Q3

Same answer: no effect unless Tesla sells their Bitcoin.

 

[AudubonB]

I'm joking because, as the world's richest person, I don't think Elon is doing anything any more for his personal wealth. I don't think that's his motivation at all anymore (I doubt it ever was). I mean, how many T-shirts does a guy have to buy?

Moderators, above all others, mustn’t violate TMC’s dictum against correcting grammatical errors, so I’ll refrain from doing so.
Rather, just thought I’d throw out a suggestion not to doxx yourself too often…

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla Model Y dominated the used car market in June

Used Tesla Model Y vehicles dominated the used car market in June despite increased prices, according to a study.

www.teslarati.com

No need for further proof that demand is way high!

In my quest to replace our Model Y, we discovered that any used Tesla was about the same price as new one. 20K miles vs 6 month wait on a new one, and people still choose used, (maybe their older vehicle couldn't wait, or they'd had enough, IDK). But many also went with new - as in my case, and it's still a 2023 delivery.

Consider this $83K price tag and how most people before Tesla only paid $20-30K for a car. So when we talk about auto margins, consider that people are now investing in a vehicle that's about 2-3x ICE pricing. Then when we hear 30% margins, no wonder TSLA has cash to research and grow faster than anyone else.

Feeling more bullish about Q2 ER now. The price hikes were on the high-end stuff in Q2. By comparison, mine wasn't high enough apparently to pull it in unless I went for the Performance version. If that's what happened in Q2, ASP could blow some minds.

If you've ever watched Carvana Tesla sales, it's pages of them with sales pending. About 3-5 new come online next day, all taken within hours. I knew someone looking for a Model 3, they weren't even looking at the specs or FSD, they are all just on then off the market that fast. Some of the Performance versions linger, I'm guessing it's the range and family fear of their kids racing it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

One way to catch up on Model Y production is to introduce CyberTruck.
I might even consider cancelling my '23 Model Y if I had a shot at Q2/Q3 '23 delivery - who needs both?
That's how we level out demand on Y and give that supply chain some relief.

 

[Singuy]

If BTC rises to $100000 how will that effect earnings

Doesn't matter, if btc is 100k then the qqq will be at 600 and tsla will be 3k regardless of earnings. It'll be bubble market 2.0

 

[ZsoZso]

We have seen predictions for the EPS numbers and other financial metrics (Thanks to @The Accountant for the neat summary table), and we all know the main stream media will bring out the usual suspects (cough GLJ ) to spread maximum FUD regardless of what the actual numbers are -- there are probably articles pre-written just waiting for the publish button press.

So how will the market react tomorrow ?
Will there be a sell-off creating a dip or investors waiting on the sideline decide its time to jump in causing a recovery rally ?
I think the answer is: YES!
And by that I mean both, i.e. I expect an oversized morning dip (possibly down to the $695 S&P500 inclusion price) followed by a recovery rally ending the week around 800 (which the MMs will try to defend with all fury due to a large call-wall expiring at that price this Friday).

Note: I am horrible at predicting short term price movements, so do not trade on my guesses!

 

[carterm2]

A play on lithium may simply be to own $TSLA

"Tesla has already purchased 10,000 acres of land in Nevada, where it plans to mine lithium."

Tesla has a new patent on Lithium Mining...

US20210207243A1 - Selective extraction of lithium from clay minerals - Google Patents

Processes for extracting lithium from a clay mineral and compositions thereof are described. The extraction process includes providing a clay mineral comprising lithium, mixing a cation source with the clay mineral, performing a high-energy mill of the clay mineral, and performing a liquid leach...

patents.google.com

An article about the patent

Tesla files new patent on lithium extraction method

Tesla has filed a patent on a new lithium extraction method from clay materials, as an environmentally friendlier way to obtain the metal.

www.mining-technology.com

During Battery Day, Tesla’s Senior Vice President of Engineering, Drew Baglino, said that Tesla has already developed this new extraction process, and it could “result in a 33% reduction in lithium cost”.

Also...

Excerpts from Lithium Industry Review

"Short-term vs. long-term forecast: The mismatch between supply and demand is still in pace in 2022, and the price has already peaked. In 2023-25, the additional production brought by new overseas mines and brine lake projects will weigh on the prices. The supply surplus of lithium carbonate is expected to correct in 2025 and onwards with the drastic development in the energy storage market."

"In the second quarter of 2022, the demand for lithium carbonate surged 39% year-on-year, of which the power battery market was still the largest application filed. And the demand from the LFP sector skyrocketed 112% YoY in the second quarter. Electronics and e-bike battery market remained muted."

SMM Review of Global Lithium Industry and Price Forecast in Q4 | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

In the second half of 2022, the lithium carbonate market will maintain a slight supply deficit, and the gap between supply and demand will gradually enlarge approaching the end of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the spot prices of lithium carbonate may rise further.

news.metal.com

I follow Haplo on Twitter for Lithium info.

 

[Pezpunk]

If BTC rises to $100000 how will that effect earnings

It has zero effect, unless they sell. Only impairments get counted. Bitcoin going up in value does not impact earnings until they sell their holdings.

 

[pitabun]

Just a quick rant, I'm so upset with GM's effort to electrify America, and the countless mentions from POTUS that Mary is leading the way, and GM is creating good union jobs. He spends so much time praising her and for what, for her to go build a factory for US cars in Mexico because good union jobs are too expensive all the sudden?

End rant.

 

[traxila]

Saw my first Rivian in the wild the other day. Had to explain to my passenger what it was.

“What is that?”
”It’s a Rivian. An electric pickup.”
”Who makes it?”
”Rivian”.
”No, I mean which car company?”
“Rivian”.

Much googling followed.

Had the exact same conversation regarding my 2013 Model S multiple times from 2013 to 2016 or so.... replacing Rivian with Tesla, of course, and pickup with car.

Always put a smile on my face.

 

[Knightshade]

Just a quick rant, I'm so upset with GM's effort to electrify America, and the countless mentions from POTUS that Mary is leading the way, and GM is creating good union jobs. He spends so much time praising her and for what, for her to go build a factory for US cars in Mexico because good union jobs are too expensive all the sudden?

End rant.

In fairness, she didn't go build a factory at all here.

That specific Mexican factory has been in use by GM since 1981 and makes, among other things, the current ICE version of the blazer.


None of this should be read as suggesting GM isn't deserving of heavy derision and criticism in a myriad of other ways on their EV efforts- but we should try and be at least as accurate in that as we wish the folks critical of Tesla were.

 

[dhanson865]

fredtrek and others say solar roof installs are being halted, installers say not so fast, we aren't affected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549781039198810114

UPDATE: According to
@weddleandsons
, this pause only applies to direct install teams. The company says they are unaffected and with high levels of demand are increasing their pace of installations.

 

[pitabun]

In fairness, she didn't go build a factory at all here.

That specific Mexican factory has been in use by GM since 1981 and makes, among other things, the current ICE version of the blazer.


None of this should be read as suggesting GM isn't deserving of heavy derision and criticism in a myriad of other ways on their EV efforts- but we should try and be at least as accurate in that as we wish the folks critical of Tesla were.

So gutting the ICE factory for EV production, the same sentiment applies. She's been given way too much credit from POTUS for this to have happened.

 

[Ogre]

In fairness, she didn't go build a factory at all here.

That specific Mexican factory has been in use by GM since 1981 and makes, among other things, the current ICE version of the blazer.


None of this should be read as suggesting GM isn't deserving of heavy derision and criticism in a myriad of other ways on their EV efforts- but we should try and be at least as accurate in that as we wish the folks critical of Tesla were.

I wouldn't care a whole lot about the Mexican factory save the politics around it.

This is the same person/ company who stood up in front of the country taking credit for the progress of the electric car, taking credit for creating American jobs (Union!!). This kind of duplicity bugs the hell out of me.

Sure, expand your factory in Mexico, go for it, that's what NAFTA was about. But she doesn't deserve to get the kind of public credit she's been given for "American Jobs".

 

[ToTheStars]

The Giga-Texas battery has not been officialy opened in full by Munro (yet)

I think they might have received an inofficial request to postpone it for a bit...

From whom? And what do you think is the reason?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I wouldn't care a whole lot about the Mexican factory save the politics around it.

This is the same person/ company who stood up in front of the country taking credit for the progress of the electric car, taking credit for creating American jobs (Union!!). This kind of duplicity bugs the hell out of me.

Sure, expand your factory in Mexico, go for it, that's what NAFTA was about. But she doesn't deserve to get the kind of public credit she's been given for "American Jobs".

Agreed....but UAW contributions to a political party go a long way for recognition. My last post on this topic...bring on the earnings!