In disscussion of FSD Beta safety from late May (
link) I had estimated that total miles driven was 100M-1B, but Tesla just said it’s actually at 35M miles as of June. Pretty close for a wild guess.
Still, with zero (verified) crashes thus far compared to 1 crash every 200k miles for average driving in the USA, the human-supervised FSD Beta program has proven at least 175x safer than normal driving.
Average revenue per car minus ZEV credits rose by $3.8k from $52.2k in Q1 to $56.0k in Q2, a bit more than my projection of $3k for just the price hike component. So, the price increase wave clearly started to hit along with continued mix shift away from Model 3, although I still think some of this came Shanghai contributing less to deliveries.
I missed big on average cost per car, which rose $3.5k QoQ from $36.5k to $40.0k whereas I predicted $37.5k. This was the by far biggest QoQ unit cost jump in recent years. It’s unclear what contributed most to this. Inflation, new factories at low rate, Shanghai shutdowns, maybe foreign exchange rate shifts.
Profit per car rose even though gross margin percentage declined. Up $300 QoQ to $16.0k (still excluding credits and also not breaking out sold vs leased).
Production capacity for Shanghai finally updated from >450k to >750k, plus Fremont now rated for 650k and Berlin/Austin finally go from “TBD” to “>250k”
