Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SN_8]

We have a popular saying in The Netherlands that pretty much sums it all up:
Afterwards you can look at the cow's ass.

I was fairly certain from context that was something akin to "hindsight is 20/20", but I had to Google it to be sure. And just like that I got educated on a whole host of delightfully odd Dutch sayings. Thanks

 

[LodiEVFan]

Exxon Mobil and Chevron using the Russian invasion of Ukraine to their advantage to gouge joe public. Blood money. So sad.
View attachment 834392

$2,245.62 a second: ExxonMobil scores enormous profit on record gas prices

ExxonMobil and Chevron both reported record massive profits thanks to record gasoline prices during the quarter.

www.cnn.com

Can't wait until Tesla single handedly puts these miscreants out of business.

Along with OPEC - back to sand dunes!

 

[dhrivnak]

Yes, we know how this works with towing and all, but you are missing the point. The big picture is nowhere to be found by using hybrids.

So you suggest I dump my 30mpg (when towing) plug in hybrid and get a truck or SUV that gets 20 mpg? You call that progress?

 

[EVCollies]

When my daughter was in elementary school, MP3 players were all the rage. That's all she wanted for Christmas. I looked around and decided the Disney MP3 player was the best option. She was young enough that Disney princesses were her thing, it used prefilled SD cards you could buy, no subscription needed. When she opened it I thought she was going to cry. I explained all the benefits it had over the iPod but she only wanted the iPod. No reasoning with her. I knew then that Apply was on to something and knew I'd never sell my then 1000 shares. She got her iPod and multiple new ones there after. Worked out pretty well as an investment over the 20 years I've held AAPL. Now my son only cared about Nintendo. I bought some of that a long time ago, but I'll never make millions off of that.

Yep, my teenage children picked AAPL and 20 something child picked TSLA. I always ask my younger nieces and nephews their current interests and where they spend their gift monies.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Rob Maurer put together a Google Docs template for sending to your Senator regarding PHEV inclusion in Inflation Reduction Act and a change.org petition regarding the same. Links to both are pinned to comments of his podcast.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

When my daughter was in elementary school, MP3 players were all the rage. That's all she wanted for Christmas. I looked around and decided the Disney MP3 player was the best option. She was young enough that Disney princesses were her thing, it used prefilled SD cards you could buy, no subscription needed. When she opened it I thought she was going to cry. I explained all the benefits it had over the iPod but she only wanted the iPod. No reasoning with her. I knew then that Apply was on to something and knew I'd never sell my then 1000 shares. She got her iPod and multiple new ones there after. Worked out pretty well as an investment over the 20 years I've held AAPL. Now my son only cared about Nintendo. I bought some of that a long time ago, but I'll never make millions off of that.

I remember an Apple product I had that had me convinced that they were the leading edge and had a great future. I looked at them as an investment. I saw what the share price had done over the last year or two, and decided "too late, they've already been discovered and are overpriced". For that reason, I didn't buy. That was with an original Macintosh...in 1985.

I was slow with TSLA and didn't start really looking into the stock until early last year. Had the same thought when I looked at the price history. Fortunately didn't make the same mistake twice. I might be a slow learner sometimes, but can learn! More important-there are a lot more resources to research a stock/company now than there were 40 years ago.

 

[Causalien]

I am in asia now so will give real time report if anything happens between China and Taiwan

 

[madodel]

I remember an Apple product I had that had me convinced that they were the leading edge and had a great future. I looked at them as an investment. I saw what the share price had done over the last year or two, and decided "too late, they've already been discovered and are overpriced". For that reason, I didn't buy. That was with an original Macintosh...in 1985.

I was slow with TSLA and didn't start really looking into the stock until early last year. Had the same thought when I looked at the price history. Fortunately didn't make the same mistake twice. I might be a slow learner sometimes, but can learn!

Man you sure missed out on a lot of upside. But console yourself with knowing you are about to have 3 times as many chairs and they will eventually be worth thousands each, unless they split again of course. My first AAPL was about $22 a share. Fidelity tells me my cost basis for those same shares is now $0.46. Enjoy the ride.

 

[Singuy]

Have you guys watched this? Just a goldmine of information, from brand loyalty, sale numbers, competition migration, how Tesla is destroying historical trends, and everything you need to know about this auto game. One gold nugget is that EV loyalty from luxury brand has gone down by 11%, meaning 11% of those who bought other EVs went to Tesla. 95% of household who bought a Tesla went back and bought another Tesla if they were to go for another car.

He brought in Taycan and EQS as examples of many people who owned the S went to them but not many came back, but did add the stipulation that it may be because of model refresh supply issue.

The guy from S&P has personal biases and have on occasion talks about Tesla quality issues and fatal accidents they need to correct. I had no idea people didn't die in other cars...

He also talks about how they model Tesla's marketshare going down to the 20%s, and that there will be an inflection point in which all of Tesla's fatal accidents and poor quality will catch up to them(his personal opinion). I believe these biases feed into why Tesla is not investment grade because most people has these biases.

Anyways, too much good hard data to summarize and every investor should watch this even though some of those personal bias things are hard to watch.

There's a part in the video where the S&P guy plus others are saying that Tesla is not as dominance in the ultra luxury segment against the Taycan and EQS because their data shows the following the last 5 months

EQS owners going to a S: 2
S owners going to EQS: 90

S owners going to Taycan: 115
Taycan owners going to S: 25

They are using these metrics trying to prove that S/X are in shaky grounds due to the competition, but stipulate it with S/X had a lack of production which may be the cause of this.

I don't know how people freaken get paid to make these idiotic conclusions.

If 200k S owners are looking for a new car..even if 99% owners decided to stay with a new S and 1% leaves, you can say "oh my 2000 people migrated away from Tesla to their competitors!"

However when there are like 200 EQS on the road, 2 migrating to the S is also the same 1%. Also this doesn't even account for the fact that EQS are brand new cars and people usually don't migrate with new cars vs 200k model S owners who had theirs for multiple years.

If they pull up refresh S sales..they will most likely find that 20k+ migrated for an old S to a new one which puts the competition to shame and hence we are talking about strong loyalty here. So in reality that was a dumb take from these data guys.

 

[Big Time]

Congrats all on our recent run! Let’s keep it going next week!?

 

[dhanson865]

I remember an Apple product I had that had me convinced that they were the leading edge and had a great future. I looked at them as an investment. I saw what the share price had done over the last year or two, and decided "too late, they've already been discovered and are overpriced". For that reason, I didn't buy. That was with an original Macintosh...in 1985.

I was slow with TSLA and didn't start really looking into the stock until early last year. Had the same thought when I looked at the price history. Fortunately didn't make the same mistake twice. I might be a slow learner sometimes, but can learn! More important-there are a lot more resources to research a stock/company now than there were 40 years ago.

I had a similar miss with AAPL back in the day but I was making ~$4/hr and had zero savings so I don't blame myself much. I was too worried about rent and food back then.

Luckily with TSLA I had scraped up a few tens of thousands of dollars by then and could put something in without feeling like I was losing out on my day to day costs.

I remember wanting to get TSLA when the AWD model S came out had had longer range due to efficiency improvements (when every other car on the market lost range going from RWD to AWD) and Autopilot was released.

I'm not sure if it was the model 3 reveal or the gigafactory presentation or some other presentation in 2016 that pushed me all in. I know it was one of Elon's presentations.

2013 and 2016 where my big buyins on TSLA, though I've continued to dribble in new funds since 2016. Looking back at the Tesla youtube channel those events don't match with my big buys so I might have decided on a main event and did the trade at a later date.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

When my daughter was in elementary school, MP3 players were all the rage. That's all she wanted for Christmas. I looked around and decided the Disney MP3 player was the best option. She was young enough that Disney princesses were her thing, it used prefilled SD cards you could buy, no subscription needed. When she opened it I thought she was going to cry. I explained all the benefits it had over the iPod but she only wanted the iPod. No reasoning with her. I knew then that Apply was on to something and knew I'd never sell my then 1000 shares. She got her iPod and multiple new ones there after. Worked out pretty well as an investment over the 20 years I've held AAPL. Now my son only cared about Nintendo. I bought some of that a long time ago, but I'll never make millions off of that.

Nothing has changed since then. Apple is timeless and omnipotent. If you're a young person today and your bubble isn't blue, you're going to be ostracized and have no friends. The power that Apple has over American society is actually terrifying if they ever used it for evil purposes.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Elon's getting spicy!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1553170788454465536

Haha. Never poke the bear.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I remember an Apple product I had that had me convinced that they were the leading edge and had a great future. I looked at them as an investment. I saw what the share price had done over the last year or two, and decided "too late, they've already been discovered and are overpriced". For that reason, I didn't buy. That was with an original Macintosh...in 1985.

I was slow with TSLA and didn't start really looking into the stock until early last year. Had the same thought when I looked at the price history. Fortunately didn't make the same mistake twice. I might be a slow learner sometimes, but can learn! More important-there are a lot more resources to research a stock/company now than there were 40 years ago.

To be fair to you, 14 years later in 1999, Apple was on the verge of bankruptcy after years of decline under various uninspired managers. Many investors who might have held from 1985-1999 would have seen almost no returns during that long period. The company was turned around by the return of Steve Jobs, who successively brought about the iMac, the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad. And the rest is history.

I don't know that a lot of people would have held Apple from 1985 to 2022 and not sold somewhere along the way for a million different reasons. Today Apple is the world's most valuable company by market cap but the journey to get there wasn't exactly smooth. Investing has a lot of survivorship bias because people had to hold some of the world's most successful companies through unimaginable challenges. Apple nearly went bankrupt. Microsoft was famously sued by the US Government for antitrust violations. Amazon nearly didn't survive the dotcom crash. And so on and so forth. For every 1 amazing company that turned an individual investor into a multi-millionaire, there are 10 amazing companies that for some reason didn't end up making it.

Since we're here, I shouldn't fail to mention that Tesla nearly went bankrupt at least 3 times that we know of. A lot of people would have given up along the way, or sold the moment they made a certain amount. You have to be really crazy and/or have balls of steel to have kept holding Tesla from any indeterminate time until today. I know why I'm still here, it's because I'm crazy and I still think we can save our species from climate change.

 

[Causalien]

Funny tidbit.

I checked in on my bull call spread that I thought I bought on tesla.

It turns out that the upper call portion never got sold. So I am now sitting on oure call options.

Made a bunch of money cause I was yoo lazy to check if my order was placed correctly

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Nothing has changed since then. Apple is timeless and omnipotent. If you're a young person today and your bubble isn't blue, you're going to be ostracized and have no friends. The power that Apple has over American society is actually terrifying if they ever used it for evil purposes.

Until the next new fad comes along and displaces them. In 2007 when the iPhone came out it was a radical, visionary product. And still a fine product-but lots of other companies make phones. Pretty much commodities now. Apple no longer has the visionary leadership of Steve Jobs, and IMO it shows. Also no real manufacturing strength since they outsource their production to contract manufacturers.

IMO that is the big difference with Tesla. They still have a visionary leader, are still coming up with truly revolutionary products (along with SpaceX) and they get it concerning manufacturing (and design for manufacturing) being just as critical as the product. Admittedly some personal bias from my time as a manufacturing engineer and tool/machine design. To go from no "volume" manufacturing experience to where they are now as the highest margin, most productive auto manufacturer on the planet, to say nothing of doing a far better job of manufacturing supply chains than companies with a century plus of experience is impressive for a company that has only been building volume for a decade.

 

[WattsHappening]

I see Aunt Cathie sold TSLA and bought ROKU again today in her flagship fund.

I'm trying to give her the benefit of the doubt. Her analysis and her pound-the-table conviction on TSLA was a factor in me going most-in into TSLA. And I kinda understand her strategy to double down on beaten down stocks. But my patience is wearing thin. As strong as her conviction is on TSLA, I don't understand why she would lighten her holdings, especially since it's obvious to most of us that we are on the cusp of another run over the next year or more. Surely she has to see this also.

Smh and really kicking myself for having invested in her funds, thinking I was diversifying. Clearly a case of di-worse-ifying in this case. I would have been so much better off going all-in instead of most-in TSLA.

 

[Singuy]

I see Aunt Cathie sold TSLA and bought ROKU again today in her flagship fund.

I'm trying to give her the benefit of the doubt. Her analysis and her pound-the-table conviction on TSLA was a factor in me going most-in into TSLA. And I kinda understand her strategy to double down on beaten down stocks. But my patience is wearing thin. As strong as her conviction is on TSLA, I don't understand why she would lighten her holdings, especially since it's obvious to most of us that we are on the cusp of another run over the next year or more. Surely she has to see this also.

Smh and really kicking myself for having invested in her funds, thinking I was diversifying. Clearly a case of di-worse-ifying in this case. I would have been so much better off going all-in instead of most-in TSLA.

I think it's because Cathie sees Roku having billions of miles of data and they are about to start their ride hailing network which will give them a price target of 4500.

 

[WADan]

I had a similar miss with AAPL back in the day but I was making ~$4/hr and had zero savings so I don't blame myself much. I was too worried about rent and food back then.

Luckily with TSLA I had scraped up a few tens of thousands of dollars by then and could put something in without feeling like I was losing out on my day to day costs.

I remember wanting to get TSLA when the AWD model S came out had had longer range due to efficiency improvements (when every other car on the market lost range going from RWD to AWD) and Autopilot was released.

I'm not sure if it was the model 3 reveal or the gigafactory presentation or some other presentation in 2016 that pushed me all in. I know it was one of Elon's presentations.

2013 and 2016 where my big buyins on TSLA, though I've continued to dribble in new funds since 2016. Looking back at the Tesla youtube channel those events don't match with my big buys so I might have decided on a main event and did the trade at a later date.

As for me, I was convinced APPL was toast when Steve passed away. Man their ecosystem has continued as strong as ever!

 

[Gigapress]

Haha that's only uh a $3.7T valuation or something, at that point we would have surpassed both Apple and Saudi Aramco's valuations...

I mean it's likely by 2030 but I'm not going to sit here and hold my breath. When it happens, it happens.

Both Apple and Saudi Aramco each make about $100 billion net income per year these days. Tesla is approximately two or three years away from its first quarter with $100B annualized net income.

Apple is a closer comparison than Aramco. AAPL is trading today at a 26x price to earnings ratio, up from historically 10-20x prior to the pandemic. In 2024 Tesla will most likely still be growing 50%+ annually, in which case it should continue to command a P/E ratio much higher than AAPL's P/E. Let's say conservatively 50x for the forward P/E (not trailing twelve months, which would be significantly higher P/E because of the growth).

[ $100B earnings ] * [ 26 P/E ] = $2.6T market cap for Apple currently
[ $100B earnings ] * [ 50 P/E ] = $5T market cap for Tesla --> With 1.16B shares outstanding today, TSLA = $4300


Not professional investment or financial advice. Not advice of any kind.