dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Irish Replublican Army, Individual Retirement Account? Neither seems right here. You might want to lay off the TLAs and tell us what you really mean.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Irish Replublican Army, Individual Retirement Account? Neither seems right here. You might want to lay off the TLAs and tell us what you really mean.
In case you weren't joking, the Inflation Recovery Act. Mod: NO MORE POLITICS! --ggr
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
In the Prius the gas engine charges the battery up to a minimum of 40% SOC and a max of 80% SOC. Even if you never plugged it in the car would just keep the pack in that range.
The problem is if you let the car sit unused the pack will drop below the minimum SOC eventually and the pack will go bad. They design it assuming you'll drive it year round.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I wasn't joking and I didn't mean to bring any politics into the thread. I had no earthly idea what he meant by IRA in that context.
Three Letter Acronyms (TLAs) should be documented at least once in the post by using the expanded acronym or initialism.
I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem. I just hate to impose that way. Still, if I had a level II at my place I'd certainly let any guest use it.
thesmokingman
Active Member
The least he could do is let you L1 charge at his place lol, L1 charging is excruciatingly slow though. That said, you don't have any extra plugs for a mobile charger, like for ex. could plug into his dryer socket etc. Shrugs, it's not worth the trouble for me, I'd just drive your gasser there.
If we spent the dollars on a MYLR, we wouldn't have a gasser for backup for trips. I do have an older, high-mileage pickup for "truck stuff" (dump runs, building materials, etc). But it's not a rig I want to depend on on a long trip. Again though-I'm sure these are fairly short term problems. DCFC infrastructure is building out pretty quickly. Likely in 5 years even small towns or fairly remote areas will have them. Different note, I was just on ABRP looking at my old, Idaho stomping grounds (moved a year ago). In that time a couple new DCFCs have opened up on some loops I liked but ABRP said were no-go then. Non-Superchargers, so a CCS adapter would be a necessity. Just curious, do most Tesla owners have one?
I don't think every TSLA investor needs to buy a Tesla, but I do think it's highly advantageous for us all to at least get some seat time behind the wheel of one. Even if that means experiencing some L1 charging.
The PHEV I had pre Tesla would do regen breaking so with a very long hill there was battery charging. ICE did not do any charging In mine. Saved on brake wear too.
Crazy to get a PHEV these days. Trade in will be zilch As I see it.
What extra revenue? Billions per year in extra revenue.
Do you think Tesla would just raise the price of vehicles to eat the tax credit? Yes. Tesla will need to raise prices as will every EV maker.
Wait times are long now. And demand has stayed extremely strong as Tesla has raised prices already. With the new tax credit everyone gets $7500 off. Tesla will have to raise prices to keep the wait time under 18 months.
Also, the tax credit guarantees massive demand in the US for 10 years. So Tesla will prioritize production for the US market. Tesla's US sales will grow faster than previously expected.
Of course, that all depends on the bill getting passed. Right now, I'd put it at 50/50. If Sinema comes out in favor soon, the odds go up a lot.
Recently folks here wondered how Tesla Bot will be trained and how long it will take. The likely answer is: By two methods and not long.
The two methods:
1) Simulation. Tesla talked about this at AI Day One. Their simulated driving environments are so close to reality that FSD can be safely trained for many dangerous situations before the training is refined by fleet data. Other companies have demonstrated other simulated environments with incredibly accurate physics of various objects (solids, fluids, gases, guns and butter).
2) Observation. Academic researchers have already demonstrated a robot hand that can learn a task by watching a human hand, using a single camera. Tesla likely knows about this work, or has hired the researchers.
Both methods will be very fast. Training in a simulation proceeds at the speed of supercomputers, allowing multitudinous practice runs in a day. Training by observation proceeds in real time, but a robot never forgets, and can share its training with millions of other robots almost instantly.
The following videos are cued to demonstrations of the two methods.
The two methods:
1) Simulation. Tesla talked about this at AI Day One. Their simulated driving environments are so close to reality that FSD can be safely trained for many dangerous situations before the training is refined by fleet data. Other companies have demonstrated other simulated environments with incredibly accurate physics of various objects (solids, fluids, gases, guns and butter).
2) Observation. Academic researchers have already demonstrated a robot hand that can learn a task by watching a human hand, using a single camera. Tesla likely knows about this work, or has hired the researchers.
Both methods will be very fast. Training in a simulation proceeds at the speed of supercomputers, allowing multitudinous practice runs in a day. Training by observation proceeds in real time, but a robot never forgets, and can share its training with millions of other robots almost instantly.
The following videos are cued to demonstrations of the two methods.
Nope. A lot of people are over the income limit. The Model S&X and LR Model 3 are already over the MSRP limit. If they raised the prices it would be even worse.
We also don't know which if any of the batteries qualify because of the mineral requirements. The RWD Model 3 probably doesn't meet this so it wouldn't qualify. So it is possible that just some Model Y's would qualify. And raising prices could put that in jeopardy as well.
thesmokingman
Active Member
That wasn't what I was implying by not worth it. Yea its good experience but he probably isn't going to buy the adapters to connect to whatever outlet at his destination to possibly L2 charge. Charging on L1 is enough to annoy casuals. hell it's as I wrote excruciating enough as a Tesla owner, so that's why I wrote its not worth the hassle if it were me. As a Tesla owner, I've got a mobile charger and plugs for my use so hooking up at his brother's would be a non-issue.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
and on the other side of the fence some of us don't make enough to take the full $7,500.
I've looked at my taxes each year and I've never paid more than $62xx. I could generate some tax liablity by selling some stock but depending on timing that might not be ideal.
Flyover country wages or someone living in the higher wage areas with lots of dependents might not have enough tax liability.
Or does the new bill switch it to where you don't need tax liability?
Observation method is the way, and here's why. In real life, it's called Peer Training and is most commonly in use today. Just as Primus is in human form to fit quickly into our existing world, the Observation Method is an easy transition if the robots are up to the task, because that's how training is setup today. The eLearning portion of the training would be gulped in an instant, followed by hands-on Peer Training with Demos and Shadow Mode (same term as FSD, same meaning too). Class Size = 1.
This still blows my mind how a single trained robot could replicate some new skill immediately across the fleet. Training Time approaches zero for volume production scenarios, Learning Efficiency skyrockets, and Process Control Charts naturally adjust to a new standard. Factory Ramps are faster by at least a couple weeks per line, the list goes on.
In the Factories I've worked in, production lines had a spec for the Procedures at each Operation, but I have yet to find a single operation where the person was following spec 100%. Many times they cut corners and create manufacturing defects without knowing it (either because it's easier or provides a higher output). So to get the "Procedure" exactly right (or exactly close, but consistent) across all robots, all shifts, and all Factories is Training Heaven! It also means we need half the HR staff (which is sadly where companies stick their training groups, and not in Operations).
Wow, the improvement cycles would likely accelerate because we remove the human variable. Experiments will likely yield more accurate results due to consistency of the tests performed. Place the robots into an R&D role, and with additional objectives and background, they could improved the methods. At that point, Training Time = ZERO. Completely eliminated training bc the Robots themselves figured out the better way to do it.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
You rent on Turo from an owner who provides cables and adapters. Easy enough.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Although I don't like that it looks like PHEVs will get the same credit as EVs, I don't think it will impact the benefit for EVs too much:
Regarding Tesla, since this is long term, it will help Tesla in eventually creating a ~$30K model with the confidence that it will sell in sufficient numbers required for that price range. For this and similar reasons, it will help battery prices come down and that will make PHEVS obsolete insofar as they aren't already, given their wasteful extra complexity.
While I don't understand the nature of current supply chain issues, I'm expecting the increased market outlook will increase the motivation and competition to solve these issues, at least in the larger picture.
With increased sales and/or profit, I also hope this will help Tesla to create a larger variety in car models (and trucks) offered. Insofar as helpful in increasing the market, that is.
Regarding Tesla, since this is long term, it will help Tesla in eventually creating a ~$30K model with the confidence that it will sell in sufficient numbers required for that price range. For this and similar reasons, it will help battery prices come down and that will make PHEVS obsolete insofar as they aren't already, given their wasteful extra complexity.
While I don't understand the nature of current supply chain issues, I'm expecting the increased market outlook will increase the motivation and competition to solve these issues, at least in the larger picture.
With increased sales and/or profit, I also hope this will help Tesla to create a larger variety in car models (and trucks) offered. Insofar as helpful in increasing the market, that is.
Thanks for the math, I trust you.Here is a little math doodle. What % of Tesla do you own?
Number of shares owned divided by 1,000,000,000 shares gets you about right or close at least. There is little debt To consider.
This decimal number might then be applied to the production number you estimate for this year such as 1,400,000 units. Your guess. Multiply it out.
This yields the quantity of EVs your percentage of ownership may produce this year.
These EVs (or portion thereof) will be delivering years of EV benefits because investors like you hold your shares whether you own a Tesla or not.
Something like .14 EVs per 100 shares per year (and growing). It is another way to look at ownership and investment. YMMV - not a mathlete
So I guess I own 11 equivalent Tesla EVs.
Cool
Just wondering what Tesla's capabilities are today in terms of training in simulation for unknown, rare situations. Is my assumption correct that Tesla isn't there yet for those goals?
For eg: Chucks unprotected left routine.
With their simulator and 3D mapping (I'm talking about the multiple video streams recreating the 3d scene, not LIDAR) , there is still a need to have engineers 'on site's to train/verify for this particular situation to see how FSD 10.13 would behave. I would've assumed that this scenario would've been a 'no-brainer' with the training tools they have?
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