Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

False.

Studies have shown that because the VAST MAJORITY of PHEV buyers do not bother to plug in, the extra weight and CO2 emissions for construction of PHEVs pretty much negates any savings over their lifetimes.

Sorry, but hybrids had their day, and it is very much in the past.

I'm gonna draw a conclusion that a PHEV credit would be the hinge pin on the deal in congress and why it's being reconsidered.

In recalling my comment this week on how the bill is yet another Charley Brown episode, I changed my mind when I heard of PHEV credits in the mix.
Likewise, the topic of PHEVs being defended here, and at this time, looks more like an attempt to get consumer support for the bill.
What else is new, right?

 

[Ibreakrules]

well for one you're comparing cars of very different size and utility (not to even mention acceleration..) , so it's not really apples to apples.. and ioniq phev isn't even made anymore.

I bought one of the first Model Ys when they came to europe, a year ago. Today they are selling for about 5k€ more than what I paid, used ones are more expensive than ordering new from Tesla.

So there's that, I haven't checked but I doubt phevs appreciate in price when they age..

I am not a phev supporter by any means. I'd be happy to buy a BYD dolphin if they're on sale here. I am just pointing out how the DEMs will not fly with a bill that incentivize $80k suvs, $100k ePUs. They also cannot give anything to Chinese batteries. Big3 got no batteries.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

What you’re doing wrong is comparing the cars solely on TCO. I would just buy the better car with the superior driving experience and make up the price difference by buying some TSLA at the same time.

With the $37k price difference between the two cars he referenced, you could buy a fair number of Tesla shares...

 

[SOULPEDL]

With due respect, and to Bob M. Why would anyone buy a plug-in and never plugin?
I almost chastise myself in the morning if I forgot to plug night before.
If you fill up gas with benjamins I will guaranty you will remember to plug-in.
The often cited study was UK fleet where the employee gets reimbursed in $ for petro cost while eats the home e-bill himself. Let's not get emotional, use anecdotal hearsay. Gas cost in 5 years is what average joe knows.

Emo? Suggest you follow up with data. For example this says PHEVs are charged very little, especially if female. I only skipped through it, but some fun facts in there. The Apartment dwellers bought PHEVs for the HOV lane, lol. And seems the cheaper (Edit: more expensive) the electricity the less people recharge them.

If the facts were different, you'd have a starting point is all. But then we'd have to talk about that annual report from Tesla that compares the total energy and waste picture, cost of repair and fuel in the future and so on.

Anyway, I'm headed out the door to snap some photos of our new (used but new smelling/looking) 2021 MYP in the driveway. This is different from our old one same year, go figure. Console changed, along with a bunch of tiny things everywhere.

Cheers!

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

 

[Usain]

Has anyone done a rough estimate on Tesla's extra revenue with the new EV tax credit?

This is billions in free money for Tesla. Also, it will probably mean a new North American gigafactory goes up ASAP. So that will raise everyone's US sales estimates for 2025 and beyond.

Who has done the math?

 

[winfield100]

With due respect, and to Bob M. Why would anyone buy a plug-in and never plugin?
I almost chastise myself in the morning if I forgot to plug night before.
If you fill up gas with benjamins I will guaranty you will remember to plug-in.
The often cited study was UK fleet where the employee gets reimbursed in $ for petro cost while eats the home e-bill himself. Let's not get emotional, use anecdotal hearsay. Gas cost in 5 years is what average joe knows.

@Ibreakrules
2 quite easy anecdotal examples
1) Spouse's cousin. Company car, free gas, PHEV. _Never_ plugged in, L1 charger still in trunk in bag unopened (big car not GM Volt), too much trouble he said
2) AW from SA, automotive writer, _seem_ to recall probably ~8-10 yrs ago. never did. GM Volt
3) buncha others

I had 2 PHEV's, absolutely _worst_ mistake ever. ICE engines plus _Compliance_ batteries
$7,500 Fed tax credit specifically written for 16kwh Volt (max 10.1kwh usable)
I shoulda bought an S60, or even an S40 as couldn't afford an S85

My GM Volt only saving grace was it died in a rear end collision at the _first_ stoplight coming into El Paso Texas in 90 miles out of Guadelupe Mountains instead of myself and spouse, (guy hit us, we were stopped) Model 3's not out yet

Like BP Duke said, PHEV's had their day, and it was way in the past

 

[Captkerosene]

I think about this a lot with regard to Tesla.

Tesla is developing a Network Effect of its own. That's what storing driver profiles in the cloud is all about. Eventually, it will be more than just your seat and mirror preferences. I could see features like the ability to have lunch waiting for you at your next Supercharger stop. The possibilities are really endless and there are features that could encourage people to spend more time in the car and consume more and more Tesla services. Then throw in Tesla home automation services and you've got a customer who is effectively captured.

We are of a similar mind on this. (Don't expect to win the most number of "likes" competition.)

Electric cars will be a commodity with low profit margins within a decade. Much sooner than is necessary to justify TSLA becoming the most valuable company in the world. Elon has stated that FSD will succumb to the same problem.

My investment thesis is that Elon will be wrong about FSD and that FSD/AI will have strong network effects (I'm using the term loosely to describe most durable competitive advantages. To include ecosystem but exclude brand and first mover). Millions of cars driving around observing road conditions, traffic, open parking spots, detours and Robotaxi availability will drive the flywheel (Dojo and feedback loop) resulting in fewer accidents, better driving and improved navigation. Personalizing this information to include Bot, as almost a personal assistant, will make it much stickier. Tesla Bot/AI/FSD will be added to the list of accountant, lawyer, banker and wife - those who are hard to fire (even if you want to) because your lives have become so intertwined. The car may end up being a loss-leader to peddle our software, so I give it a high value ... but nowhere close to 900B.

Valueing TSLA on earnings has become popular lately on the board. While there is some validity to this approach, I think it works better with companies that have predictable long term earnings. I prefer something more opaque, pace of innovation and product roadmap for my analysis. The numbers are no more than guesses, but I prefer to look at the horizon rather than down at my feet. Early investors in TSLA were rewarded for seeing what Tesla was becoming more than what it was. I place a negative value on analyst reports that only span a few years, are based on earnings and don't even consider AI. They missed the last run and will miss the next.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Emo? Suggest you follow up with data. For example this says PHEVs are charged very little, especially if female. I only skipped through it, but some fun facts in there. The Apartment dwellers bought PHEVs for the HOV lane, lol. And seems the cheaper the electricity the less people recharge them.

If the facts were different, you'd have a starting point is all. But then we'd have to talk about that annual report from Tesla that compares the total energy and waste picture, cost of repair and fuel in the future and so on.

Anyway, I'm headed out the door to snap some photos of our new (used but new smelling/looking) 2021 MYP in the driveway. This is different from our old one same year, go figure. Console changed, along with a bunch of tiny things everywhere.

Cheers!

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

I left out the biggest hole in the PHEV story, and it's in that report. The higher the cost of energy, the less people charge their PHEVs. I'm gonna guess energy prices are going to rise. So again, bad idea.

I didn't read the whole study, but I'm gonna assume the reason is that when trying to reduce their power bill, and have a choice between heating their home or charge the hybrid... they tend to skip the charging. That's what the data indicates anyway.

 

[MP3Mike]

Has anyone done a rough estimate on Tesla's extra revenue with the new EV tax credit?

What extra revenue? Do you think Tesla would just raise the price of vehicles to eat the tax credit? I don't think they would.

 

[MP3Mike]

Different subject. Tesla not choosing to sell them in Europe has nothing to do with the current availability in Florida. Fly in to Orlando or Fort Meyers or…. and pick one up. Export it. Yes, I know it isn’t easy

Well you can't do that if you want to actually use it. Wrong charge port, wrong maps, wrong cell provider, wrong lights, no warranty, etc..

 

[insaneoctane]

What extra revenue? Do you think Tesla would just raise the price of vehicles to eat the tax credit? I don't think they would.

Certainly, Tesla might have another "inflation-driven" price increase in anticipation of the subsidy. I seriously doubt it would be all $7,500, but it could be significant. This seems likely to get ahead of what would certainly be a deluge of new orders as people on the fence see the vehicle they wanted just dropped thousands of dollars. With long wait times getting longer, higher prices is (unfortunately) likely the only solution until Berlin and Austin ease the backlog.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Certainly, Tesla might have another "inflation-driven" price increase in anticipation of the subsidy. I seriously doubt it would be all $7,500, but it could be significant. This seems likely to get ahead of what would likely be a deluge of new orders as people on the fence see the vehicle they wanted just dropped thousands of dollars. With long wait times getting longer, higher prices is (unfortunately) likely the only solution until Berlin and Austin ease the backlog.

I can see Tesla doing a increase of 2-3k on the Y. Mainly to make up for them decreasing the price of the 3 LR/P to make them eligible for the credit.

The main thing that will effect revenue for Tesla is people choosing the higher trims and/or choosing more options. I expect Tesla to heavily prioritize the high trims of the 3/Y, making the wait times for the base trims much longer and thus there will be extra revenue and profit for Tesla from this bill passing

 

[Zythryn]

Has anyone done a rough estimate on Tesla's extra revenue with the new EV tax credit?

This is billions in free money for Tesla. Also, it will probably mean a new North American gigafactory goes up ASAP. So that will raise everyone's US sales estimates for 2025 and beyond.

Who has done the math?

After all the calculations, the total comes to $0.00.
Tesla is, and I expect will be for the next couple of years, supply constrained. They will not sell any additional cars due to the rebate.

Perhaps once demand is less than supply it MAY result in additional sales. However, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

 

[Ibreakrules]

@Ibreakrules
2 quite easy anecdotal examples
1) Spouse's cousin. Company car, free gas, PHEV. _Never_ plugged in, L1 charger still in trunk in bag unopened (big car not GM Volt), too much trouble he said
2) AW from SA, automotive writer, _seem_ to recall probably ~8-10 yrs ago. never did. GM Volt
3) buncha others

I had 2 PHEV's, absolutely _worst_ mistake ever. ICE engines plus _Compliance_ batteries
$7,500 Fed tax credit specifically written for 16kwh Volt (max 10.1kwh usable)
I shoulda bought an S60, or even an S40 as couldn't afford an S85

My GM Volt only saving grace was it died in a rear end collision at the _first_ stoplight coming into El Paso Texas in 90 miles out of Guadelupe Mountains instead of myself and spouse, (guy hit us, we were stopped) Model 3's not out yet

Like BP Duke said, PHEV's had their day, and it was way in the past

I obviously touched a sensitive nerve. Making financial decisions only based on breakeven analysis.
That is the reason I am where I am today. If the results were close, let just say within 10%, I would say go with your gut.
I did have a sub 4.0 0-60 TT from the Japanese supercar era, it was fun but I was lucky to be alive today, seriously.
I will not post anymore on this topic. But for folks that thinks I am talking puffy or non logic.
Here are links from the EPA's car fuel cost calculators.
I used my analysis numbers, whops, got a break even of 170 years instead of my 107.
They're also biased I assume.
Bye

 

[Ibreakrules]

I obviously touched a sensitive nerve. Making financial decisions only based on breakeven analysis.
That is the reason I am where I am today. If the results were close, let just say within 10%, I would say go with your gut.
I did have a sub 4.0 0-60 TT from the Japanese supercar era, it was fun but I was lucky to be alive today, seriously.
I will not post anymore on this topic. But for folks that thinks I am talking puffy or non logic.
Here are links from the EPA's car fuel cost calculators.
I used my analysis numbers, whops, got a break even of 170 years instead of my 107.
They're also biased I assume.
Bye

Attn Defic showing.

Find and Compare Cars

Find EPA fuel economy estimates based on vehicle model or class.

www.fueleconomy.gov

Fuel Economy of 2021 - 2022 Tesla Model Y

Fuel economy of the 2021 Tesla Model Y. 1984 to present Buyer's Guide to Fuel Efficient Cars and Trucks. Estimates of gas mileage, greenhouse gas emissions, safety ratings, and air pollution ratings for new and used cars and trucks.

www.fueleconomy.gov

 

[Skryll]

After all the calculations, the total comes to $0.00.
Tesla is, and I expect will be for the next couple of years, supply constrained. They will not sell any additional cars due to the rebate.

but they could increase the price cashing in on the difference.

 

[MC3OZ]

Sorry, no. That's just a very poor analogy...
"putting a horse in a pasture" is the equivalent of finding a charger and plugging in. First you have to take of all the gear, walk the horse to the pasture, open the gate, put the horse in, and close the gate. Once the horse is full you have to comeback and put it in a stall/garage.

Which is why you need a Teslabot,,to plug in, after you tell it and the car to search for a free charger.

 

[MC3OZ]

Cost of gas is hurting the average American household. Biden knows elections are won by the economy. I can afford the Plaid, but still had a hard time pushing that button for the hedgehog. In fact I had to cancel a M3 RWD last yr.

The cost of gas is why most will plug in the PHEV when they can.

IMO a pure BEV has a better TCO over 10 years, mainly due to lower maintenance and charging on longer range trips.

However, as a short-term inflation busting move when BEVs and batteries can't keep up with demand, PHEV is better than ICE.

 

[Snerruc]

Well you can't do that if you want to actually use it. Wrong charge port, wrong maps, wrong cell provider, wrong lights, no warranty, etc..

You left off the last part. Buy a nice car and enjoy it. There are cars other than Tesla.

 

[insaneoctane]

After all the calculations, the total comes to $0.00.
Tesla is, and I expect will be for the next couple of years, supply constrained. They will not sell any additional cars due to the rebate.

Perhaps once demand is less than supply it MAY result in additional sales. However, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

@Skryll said it. Tesla increases prices, and increased demand allows them to prioritize higher margin orders. This revenue increase is NOT zero, even if not one single additional vehicle is delivered.