Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

Which OEMs are using large castings and cylindrical batteries? Not that they won't get there but there still seems to be a large gap on when

Guangdong HungTu Technology ordered a half dozen 6800 ton and at least two 12000 ton press from LK

LK Group

L.K. Group is one of the global leaders in producing die-casting machines, plastic injection molding machines and CNC machining centers.

www.lk.world

It is not clear how many large presses they already have. Of course almost nobody has heard of them outside the Chinese industry. They are probably the largest single supplier of large castings and other major components to the Chinese auto industry.

The realities that we all know what Tesla is doing and who their largest suppliers are. We do not know as much for any other OEM, specifically including the Chinese ones.

It is not impossible to find out which OEMs are using which technologies. However it is a great deal of work.
Three are, I am told, among those which are now completing designs that will use gigacastings:
BYD, Changan and SAIC. I am completely unaware of the specific models. All three are building ne factories for new models. As for cylindrical, BYD will not. The other two have used multiple form factors, but may well source mostly from CATL, but that is not certain either.

Not very satisfying way, perhaps, to say I don't know!

 

[jw934]

Well the market is falling off a small cliff at the moment.... and TSLA falling harder

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554519513860673536

There will always be some who panic sell.

 

[MartinAustin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554519513860673536

There will always be some who panic sell.

Well the market averages are all going down too. Is the whole market reacting to this news?

 

[MikeC]

I think this is the reason for the dip:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554466581140635654

 

[Zero CO2]

It probably has to do with the EV bill vote that's coming up on Wed/Thurs. Traders getting in front of it, if it passes.

Though...................someone should probably tell Lucid stock holders today that since there's a price cap for any EV to get the credit, the EV bill doesn't help them one bit.

We should probably tell the Rivian shareholders as well since almost all of Rivian's trims do not make it under the cap.

Rivian Says Senate Climate Deal Puts It at Disadvantage

The electric-vehicle startup is warning that most of its vehicles would be ineligible for a $7,500 tax credit under the proposed changes.

www.wsj.com

 

[dhanson865]

Would be misleading if he had labelled it "Tesla" and omitted that Austin and Berlin were not included. But he clearly labelled it Fremont and Shanghai. Even though Austin GF is large, that doesn´t change the fact that in the beginning of June they were early in the ramp and output was negligible in comparison.

On getting more misleading every week, do you also complain that the weather forecast for yesterday isn´t correct today?

It's misleading in this context because those numbers were posted in response to Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

I know someone must have done this calculation, but I've given up my quest to find it. Given the present Tesla model delivery rates and matching reservation backlogs, has anyone calculated the existing number of reservations by model? I assume that cancellation rates of reservations must be factored in too.

Which is for all of Tesla, not just Fremont and Shanghai.

And besides Troy did label it "Tesla's order backlog by factory" and then left out two factories.

The question was about present numbers, not historical numbers, so how the ramp was in June isn't the focus either.

My post still holds even if Troy didn't have the numbers in the past, the person that asked for them asked for current numbers and Kenypowa replying with historical numbers that don't have either current numbers or all 4 factories in play isn't a full answer to the question asked.

Now if you want to take Troys numbers from June and try to update them for July and add the 2 factories that would be worth doing.

But until someone does that I'm putting the disclaimer that his June data doesn't answer the question asked.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Jesus, that's pretty stiff.

View attachment 835764

Looks to me like we'll break thru 920 on the next effort and maybe settle at 925 today. I'd reeeeeally like to see us close above 950 tomorrow before the meeting.

Notice the absence of puts in that graph all the way down. So I think 950 it very possible.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, and I knew that. My point remains that most LG BEV clients have had problems. Tesla and Geely both have rather extensive acceptance testing and documentation procedures. Those work, whether pouch air cylindrical. We also know that pouch designs are much more intolerant of manufacturing, installation, BMS and use than are cylindrical. Regardless of form factor poor quality control, installation design and BMS will end out with unpleasant consequences.

Really smart OEM's are doing everything in their power to equal Tesla motive systems quality. That generally incudes form factor, chemistry and BMS as well as very, very tight quality control...plus motors, electrical and electronic parts. I doubt anybody has a serious doubt that Tesla is at least a few years ahead of anybody else.

It's worthwhile for us to debate and understand all this because it is as important as is manufacturing efficiency. There are several OEM's which already have working Gigapresses. There are also OEM's like BYD which know battery technology as well as anyone. Then there is CATL. As we comfortably assume Tesla is the only OEM that can achieve high quality in all these fronts, we should be very careful to avoid hubris, as should Tesla and even SpaceX.

Meh. You totally lost me at ‘really smart OEMs’. Our definitions of that clearly are quite different in EV context. I’ll give it to you if the context was advertising lies, product announcements lies, and general narrative lies. In that regard, OEMs make Tesla look stupider than stupid.

 

[Thekiwi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554519513860673536

There will always be some who panic sell.

It is being suggested this is part of China retaliation over Pelosi visit.

maybe people should reconsider the impact of an event they called a “nothingburger”

 

[Krugerrand]

This hasn't aged well has it....

"At this point, it doesn't make a lot of sense for big global automakers to invest heavily in mass-market electric cars simply because Tesla has seen a massive run-up in its stock price over the past year. Tesla has a substantial technology lead in long-range batteries, but it will unquestionably struggle in the short term to build enough of those batteries to power 200-300,000 new vehicles. That's why the company is constructing a $5-billion battery factory in Nevada.

But there's considerable risk in what Tesla is trying to achieve. And the major automotive players are happy for Tesla to have as much of that risk to itself as it wants. Competition from the rest of the auto industry will arrive in force once Tesla proves that its market is truly worth competing for. "

Source:

Analyst Says Tesla's Competition Is The 'Entire Auto Industry'

The major automakers aren't going to simply give the electric car market to Tesla.

www.businessinsider.com

The true beauty of the Internet; what’s said on the Internet, stays on the Internet.

 

[john tanglewoo]

I think this is the reason for the dip:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554466581140635654

Or this?

 

[thesmokingman]

Guangdong HungTu Technology ordered a half dozen 6800 ton and at least two 12000 ton press from LK

LK Group

L.K. Group is one of the global leaders in producing die-casting machines, plastic injection molding machines and CNC machining centers.

www.lk.world

It is not clear how many large presses they already have. Of course almost nobody has heard of them outside the Chinese industry. They are probably the largest single supplier of large castings and other major components to the Chinese auto industry.

The realities that we all know what Tesla is doing and who their largest suppliers are. We do not know as much for any other OEM, specifically including the Chinese ones.

It is not impossible to find out which OEMs are using which technologies. However it is a great deal of work.
Three are, I am told, among those which are now completing designs that will use gigacastings:
BYD, Changan and SAIC. I am completely unaware of the specific models. All three are building ne factories for new models. As for cylindrical, BYD will not. The other two have used multiple form factors, but may well source mostly from CATL, but that is not certain either.

Not very satisfying way, perhaps, to say I don't know!

So many facts stretched in your posts. There are NO giga presses other than Tesla. LK even states they are hoping to get presses out there to CHinese manufacturers but there are many roadblocks. None have designs yet, lack of talent to make cars to make castings for. And on top of that, the special sauce that makes giga castings work is the metallurgy that TESLA specifically developed with SpaceX, to make an aluminum mix that doesn't need to be heat treated. And from what LK has said it's 2023, not now, not maybe...

 

[MikeC]

Or this?

I think less likely, because the whole market dropped. TSLA recovered a little but indices are still dropping.

 

[capster]

My only post on this but anyone thinking China is going to actually invade Taiwan after what just happened with Ukraine/Russia and the worldwide denouncing of Russia from essentially the world economy is living in La La Land.

Such dismissiveness is just as unhelpful here and now as it turned out to be for those planning defense spending for many Western European countries over the past few decades—no offense intended to those from those countries.

Though the probability of an immanent invasion may not be high, it is statistically significant. While this may not be a good time for China to mount an invasion, they may see now as the best opportunity relative to any foreseeable in the future for some time as well as relative to their perception of current US power and will. Given the current increased jockeying, the chances of miscommunications and miscalculations are rising leading to more risk of inadvertent escalation.

As for the Ukraine invasion, it could be influencing China’s invasion calculus either way, if you think about it, especially as the outcome has yet to be determined.

As for decoupling China’s economy, they might be willing to play a very high stakes game of chicken on that.

 

[Krugerrand]

Here we go, is the lid blown off? She's starting to go go go!

If y’all could just show a little patience and wait 10 seconds. Thanks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It is being suggested this is part of China retaliation over Pelosi visit.

maybe people should reconsider the impact of an event they called a “nothingburger”

Agree, so I spent the morning watching the video on Taiwan suggested earlier. It is complicated and sensitive.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If y’all could just show a little patience and wait 10 seconds. Thanks.

Too late, fizzled...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Such dismissiveness is just as unhelpful here and now as it turned out to be for those planning defense spending for many Western European countries over the past few decades—no offense intended to those from those countries.

Though the probability of an immanent invasion may not be high, it is statistically significant. While this may not be a good time for China to mount an invasion, they may see now as the best opportunity relative to any foreseeable in the future for some time as well as relative to their perception of current US power and will. Given the current increased jockeying, the chances of miscommunications and miscalculations are rising leading to more risk of inadvertent escalation.

As for the Ukraine invasion, it could be influencing China’s invasion calculus either way, if you think about it, especially as the outcome has yet to be determined.

As for decoupling China’s economy, they might be willing to play a very high stakes game of chicken on that.

I'm not making that comment lightly or being dismissive. If anything, Russia was the one taking things "lightly" and tried to play a game of chicken and has been humiliated on an epic scale and their entire economy is in shambles, like permanent shambles. It's been one of the most epic blunders on the wordwide scale by a major world power in the modern history. Russia's going to end up losing territory verse when the whole thing started. The Russia/Ukraine situation and the outcome from it for Russia took Taiwan off the table for China.

Sorry but I don't see how anyone can see that differently.

And China has way more to lose in a game of chicken than Russia did. People seem to think China is the entity that everyone relies on when in reality, China's entire economy is based on the world. If the world shuts them out, China crumbles. As has been shown, or should I say exposed, the image that China was trying to portray of itself as self sustaining and flourishing domestic economy was really just a charade. They are entirely dependent on their export economy.

My last post on this, promise.

 

[capster]

I

It’s the principle of the thing. I get it.

Additionally, you keep being grumpy enough for the two of us because everyone has forgotten about me. I look like cotton candy now; all sweet and sugary.

Race Fans! Fox/Cat Grumpy Smackdown!

I‘ll get my popcorn…and dog treats.

 

[MartinAustin]

I think less likely, because the whole market dropped. TSLA recovered a little but indices are still dropping.

market + TSLA are coming back