Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

market + TSLA are coming back

not that we need a play-by-play of a stock ticker we can all see. but it sure beats reading posts about vernon unsworth which DEFINITELY has nothing to do with TSLA

 

[SOULPEDL]

Going to have to admit that I don't understand global trade, but is it possible that China has a strategy here to cut off battery supply to the US so that if/when US places tariffs on China imports, then it keeps China in business due to a lack of US supply and exponential demand for batteries that we don't have?

 

[GOVA]

This hasn't aged well has it....

"At this point, it doesn't make a lot of sense for big global automakers to invest heavily in mass-market electric cars simply because Tesla has seen a massive run-up in its stock price over the past year. Tesla has a substantial technology lead in long-range batteries, but it will unquestionably struggle in the short term to build enough of those batteries to power 200-300,000 new vehicles. That's why the company is constructing a $5-billion battery factory in Nevada.

But there's considerable risk in what Tesla is trying to achieve. And the major automotive players are happy for Tesla to have as much of that risk to itself as it wants. Competition from the rest of the auto industry will arrive in force once Tesla proves that its market is truly worth competing for. "

Source:

Analyst Says Tesla's Competition Is The 'Entire Auto Industry'

The major automakers aren't going to simply give the electric car market to Tesla.

www.businessinsider.com

This pretty much guarantees that anything that entity writes is only created to steer the markets the way they want.

From Wikipedia:
Link

Bias, reliability, and editorial policy[edit]​

Glenn Greenwald has critiqued the reliability of Business Insider, along with that of publications including The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo! News, and Slate.[27] In 2010, Business Insider falsely reported that New York Governor David Paterson was slated to resign;[28] BI had earlier reported a false story alleging that Steve Jobs experienced a heart attack.[29]

In April 2011, Blodget sent out a notice inviting publicists to "contribute directly" to Business Insider.[30] As of September 2011, Business Insider allowed the use of anonymous sources "at any time for any reason".[31][32] According to the World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers, Business Insider gave SAP "limited editorial control" over the content of its "Future of Business" section as of 2013.[33] The website publishes a mix of original reporting and aggregation of other outlets' content.[34][35] Business Insider has also published native advertising.[36]

 

[henchman24]

It is being suggested this is part of China retaliation over Pelosi visit.

maybe people should reconsider the impact of an event they called a “nothingburger”

It is short term noise. Likely to continue for a bit. Long term, that plant still happens.

 

[Krugerrand]

Going to have to admit that I don't understand global trade, but is it possible that China has a strategy here to cut off battery supply to the US so that if/when US places tariffs on China imports, then it keeps China in business due to a lack of US supply and exponential demand for batteries that we don't have?

So, Tesla has made itself largely immune to that scenario too.

 

[jabloomf1230]

It's misleading in this context because those numbers were posted in response to Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable



Which is for all of Tesla, not just Fremont and Shanghai.

And besides Troy did label it "Tesla's order backlog by factory" and then left out two factories.

The question was about present numbers, not historical numbers, so how the ramp was in June isn't the focus either.

My post still holds even if Troy didn't have the numbers in the past, the person that asked for them asked for current numbers and Kenypowa replying with historical numbers that don't have either current numbers or all 4 factories in play isn't a full answer to the question asked.

Now if you want to take Troys numbers from June and try to update them for July and add the 2 factories that would be worth doing.

But until someone does that I'm putting the disclaimer that his June data doesn't answer the question asked.

Thanks all, but my question was on car numbers backlog by model, not time backlog. For example, if the backlog is 4 months and a million cars per year are produced then that's ~300k unfulfilled orders. I'll guess I'll keep looking.

 

[betstarship]

I'll just leave this here as a potential macro reason people are worried...

Why the U.N. chief says we are 'one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation'

It's not the first time for such a dire warning. Here's a brief look at why Guterres and others are raising the alarm now.

www.npr.org

 

[Nocturnal]

Going to have to admit that I don't understand global trade, but is it possible that China has a strategy here to cut off battery supply to the US so that if/when US places tariffs on China imports, then it keeps China in business due to a lack of US supply and exponential demand for batteries that we don't have?

That would be counterproductive IMO. No CATL plant here makes domestic US production by a US company more likely.

I'll just leave this here as a potential macro reason people are worried...

Why the U.N. chief says we are 'one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation'

It's not the first time for such a dire warning. Here's a brief look at why Guterres and others are raising the alarm now.

www.npr.org

Those puts or cash positions will be as valuable as being long if that happens.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks all, but my question was on car numbers backlog by model, not time backlog. For example, if the backlog is 4 months and a million cars per year are produced then that's ~300k unfulfilled orders. I'll guess I'll keep looking.

There is no public information or numbers for backlogged models. Tesla does not provide those numbers nor do they hint at them - like ever. Additionally, Tesla is always adjusting their rates of production; mostly up but not always. Assume 83,000 for each model and you’ll always be surprised to the upside.

Otherwise, if you’d be so kind as to just say, ‘Tesla has a demand issue’, then I’d be free to get richer.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That would be counterproductive IMO. No CATL plant here makes domestic US production by a US company more likely.

Exactly. Probably kind of a love/hate relationship between Tesla and China. China loves that Tesla has made such an investment there and Tesla provides very good and high paying jobs for the local economy there. But Tesla also can and will push forward itself on any supply chain that they deem is at risk.

So for CATL/China, the dilemma becomes if we don't build battery factories over in the US, Tesla will do it themselves, thus diminishing the importance of China/CATL

 

[MartinAustin]

Going to have to admit that I don't understand global trade, but is it possible that China has a strategy here to cut off battery supply to the US so that if/when US places tariffs on China imports, then it keeps China in business due to a lack of US supply and exponential demand for batteries that we don't have?

IMO Tesla hopes to acquire battery materials from close by its assembly factories, and ideally without heaps (no pun intended) of long-distance deliveries for ore from mines to the battery materials plants.

This means that only the Shanghai factory will be impacted by a delay in opening of the CATL plant - if it is affected at all. Yes there are auto exports from China to around the world, but this is kept to a minimum, and I cite the Berlin factory as part of the proof. There will be additional factories around the world, we assume. All of which will attempt to acquire their source materials regionally vs. from somewhere else on the globe.

I don't believe China will be successful at cutting off battery material supplies to Tesla's U.S. assembly plants. If the government closes or weakens Chinese battery factory output, it will only hurt them principally... and they want BEVs.

 

[2daMoon]

On to other Tesla news...

This looks like Tesla has a strategy for generating beaucoup certified EV service technicians for the expanding service center network.

Lincoln Tech & Tesla partner to train future EV technicians

Lincoln Tech and Tesla have signed an agreement to train future EV technicians. As part of a three-year plan,

www.teslarati.com

Bullish?

 

[capster]

I'm not making that comment lightly or being dismissive. If anything, Russia was the one taking things "lightly" and tried to play a game of chicken and has been humiliated on an epic scale and their entire economy is in shambles, like permanent shambles. It's been one of the most epic blunders on the wordwide scale by a major world power in the modern history. Russia's going to end up losing territory verse when the whole thing started. The Russia/Ukraine situation and the outcome from it for Russia took Taiwan off the table for China.

Sorry but I don't see how anyone can see that differently.

And China has way more to lose in a game of chicken than Russia did. People seem to think China is the entity that everyone relies on when in reality, China's entire economy is based on the world. If the world shuts them out, China crumbles. As has been shown, or should I say exposed, the image that China was trying to portray of itself as self sustaining and flourishing domestic economy was really just a charade. They are entirely dependent on their export economy.

My last post on this, promise.

I’m not saying your scenario is wrong, just that there are others that may instead come to pass even if they are less probable.

There are those who weigh things differently or are considering other factors than you seem to be. Sober-minded, informed people do have some legitimate basis for worry.

To say those that entertain scenarios other than your own are “living in La La land” is dismissive and, so, invites others to dismiss your conjecture.

 

[unk45]

Meh. You totally lost me at ‘really smart OEMs’. Our definitions of that clearly are quite different in EV context. I’ll give it to you if the context was advertising lies, product announcements lies, and general narrative lies. In that regard, OEMs make Tesla look stupider than stupid.

Ok. Tell me which OEM lies I have quoted. Please! I do not want to quote lies. Perhaps you thought I was referring to the US, Japanese and European also-rans. If so you're incorrect.

 

[Accident]

Based on an article from Bloomberg, it seems like CATL is still planning to build the battery plants in North America, they are just delaying the announcement for a couple of months.

Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Spurs Chinese Battery Giant to Pause Plant Debut

"CATL now plans to wait until September or October to make the announcement, the people familiar with the process said Tuesday, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The concern is that an announcement could stoke tensions at a sensitive time in US-China ties amid the controversial Pelosi visit to Taiwan, they said."
"CATL is considering Ciudad Juarez, in the state of Chihuahua, and Saltillo, in Coahuila, and that the company is contemplating an investment of as much $5 billion in the project. Sites in the US and Mexico are still under active consideration, and there’s no intention to walk away from the plan, the people said."

 

[wtlloyd]

Okay, while a lot of you are wandering around searching for your keys under the lamppost, I found this over where you actually dropped your keys -

Korean EV, battery makers to benefit from US inflation bill - KED Global

South Korea’s electric vehicle and battery makers are expected to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the US bill designed to bring rampant

www.kedglobal.com

"South Korean battery makers are likely to gain the upper hand in competition with Chinese players as the provisions for the tax credit include conditions such as where raw materials are mined and refined, as well as where they are produced. A customer is eligible for $3,750, half the benefit, from 2024 only when they purchase an EV having batteries with more than 40% of raw materials such as lithium and nickel mined or smelted in the US or its free trade agreement (FTA) partners. The bar will be lifted to 80% in 2027.

The full tax credit will be applied to EVs having batteries with more than half their components made in North America. In 2029, all of the parts must be produced there for the benefit.

The move is to exclude Russia and China from the entire battery supply chain, industry sources said. The global top battery maker China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL), and cell ingredient producers on the mainland will not benefit from the tax benefit, they added. On the other hand, EcoPro BM, South Korea’s top cathode material producer, POSCO Chemical Co. and LG Chem Ltd. are expected to enjoy the incentive.

But the bill may cause problems in the battery supply chain since China refines more than 70% of ores of cell materials such as lithium and nickel, some sources said."

So no, barnstorming Speakers of the House are not the cause. This is an attempt to twist arms before resource monopoly loses it's dominance in the industry.

 

[Cobbler]

It's just a delay of a decision.
Haven't LFP patents expired? So why wouldn't Samsung/LG Chemical (Or Tesla) jump on this to produce LFP in the US? IMHO just noise

Tesla shouldn't be affected. They import those LFP cells from China.
Ford, who was planning for future models, are likely to be more affected if any cancelling would occur.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What we're seeing here is the combination of a decentralizing world and the Information Age conspiring to neuter the tactics of scarcity.

Some assume they can hold the world captive because they supply oil & gas. They found out everything has flipped at some point over the last 15 years. They are now the ones reliant on the world to keep using their increasingly obsolete products. There are scaled alternatives to burning scarce fossil fuels. It may take time, but it's now utterly doable.

Other parties can't just stop manufacturing battery cells to try and lever the US into compliance. The US will simply build their own. It may take time, but it's now utterly doable.

It's a glorious new dynamic that should keep a lot of the 1980s style prick waving off the menu from here on out.

Sustainable abundance is delightful. And only beginning!

 

[dhanson865]

Thanks all, but my question was on car numbers backlog by model, not time backlog. For example, if the backlog is 4 months and a million cars per year are produced then that's ~300k unfulfilled orders. I'll guess I'll keep looking.

The problem is you will only find estimates.

We get some hard numbers for Shanghai on a monthly basis and you can get Model Y and Model 3 numbers out of there on a monthly basis.

But Fremont + Austin + Berlin(Brandenberg) give totals less frequently and Fremont isn't broken down by model.

On top of that Tesla doesn't give numbers for order backlog to anybody at anytime. No regulatory agency reports order backlogs.

So to get number of cars backlog by model you would literally have to guess. You can get some clues to make your guess more educated but it's still a guess in the end. Only Tesla has the accurate numbers and they aren't telling us.

 

[WADan]

I s

just searched my vanguard account and no proxy notice for Tesla shares i only have a small number of shares ~40 but very strange their is no notification

I searched my email account and both Schwab and Vanguard sent their emails on June 30th. Easy peasy.