Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I know, I heard him say it, but the math on it is daunting. Those are incredibly huge production numbers needed for Q3 and Q4 to hit that 1.5.

The math, at least for Q3, comes down to whether you believe there will be a "ramp up phase" after the lines are upgraded. Everyone's going off of Troy's number who is assuming there will be a ramp up period, similar to the ramp up period after Shanghai had to shut down (mainly because supply chain lines were fully back up either).

However, every time factories have shut down in the past, there was no "ramp up phase" after a line got upgraded. Tesla was at the new production rate within the first week. So if you buy into that notion, 400k+ is definitely a possibility for Q3. And then for Q4, we don't know how Tesla is planning on ramping Berlin/Austin within the quarter.

Actually, it would not mean that.

Elon didn't elaborate on the rate of the ramp with regard to how they expected to get to (or close to) 1.5 million vehicles this year. Assuming 400K for Q3 based on Elon's projections assumes a relatively steady ramp through the second half of 2022 and that's a assumption that shouldn't be made. If more of the ramp happens early in Q3, then Q3 production could be well over $400K while still missing the EOY target of 1.5 million. Conversely, if the ramp is more concentrated towards the end of Q3/beginning of Q4 then Tesla could potentially hit the 1.5 million number while missing 400K in Q3. We have no way to know so let's not start parsing things using assumptions that are not givens because that can create expectations that are not necessarily accurate.

No it can’t. Elon said they are hoping to be at 2 million annual run rate by end of the year. Meaning, there’s no way they could make materially more than 500,000 in Q4. Especially when you consider that for the first half of Q4, they won’t be at the 2 million annual run rate. If 1.5 million is going to happen, Q4 has to be at least 400k, if not 420k.

 

[Dutchie]

Elon:

"Earth CAN, and WILL be saved."

We're holding you to this, Elon...

What are you going to do if he is wrong?

 

[Artful Dodger]

It seemed like there was going to be some kind of surprise with the V4 supercharger. Elon had to hold himself back. Perhaps, snake charger?

As I wrote above, I think v4 will be the "hydra-head" supercharger (patent revealed last week), that allows either CCS1 or Tesla N.America std plugs at up to 350KW charging power (Cybertruck, Roadster will take the full load).

I agree, Elon was holding himself back: this is a $B+ concession annually, with great margins (esp. where Tesla can collocate v4 Superchargers with their own Solar farm).

I've long held that Teslabot is the new snake charmer.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems like the EV bill will indeed pass……despite Rivian throwing it’s tantrum

 

[thesmokingman]

Seems like the EV bill will indeed pass……despite Rivian throwing it’s tantrum

That miscalculation on msrp... woulda shoulda coulda, it must hurt!

 

[CLK350]

In case you missed the beginning - and to get a running summary, check out Farzad's live notes (from his YouTube parallel play )
Currently:

View attachment 836807

Tesla 2022 Investor Meeting Notes from Farzad

docs.google.com

Note, another excellent summary of Tesla's 2022 Annual Meeting of Shareholders at 2022 Tesla Annual Meeting of Stockholders - DBurkland.com - No notes can convey the feeling and super enthusiastic atmosphere of that meeting, the shareholders present, and especially the non verbal moves/ expressions of Elon (he was in the best form ever, relaxed and really at ease -> super Bullish BTW) also some humor /sarcasm tossed by Robyn re wasteful/ distracting shareholder proposals.

Also the visuals, like the picture perfect *real* historic exponential growth of cars produced - perfect intro to the projected 20M cars production anticipated for 2030, from today's 2M

So really worth watching the presentation (skipping the opening 3 min+ Tesla 'against' proposals)

 

[StealthP3D]

OT but CA electric prices sure have gone way up in recent years. Lowest EV rate from PGE is currently $0.24 after midnight. My commercial rate is $0.31 - $0.38 and superchargers are $0.48. I wonder what markup they have on their electricity if they are charging $0.15?

Electricity in Denver is around $0.11/kWh but I think getting people in the store is probably more valuable than the $0.04/kWh markup on the electricity.

 

[StealthP3D]

Seems like the EV bill will indeed pass……despite Rivian throwing it’s tantrum

It's politics. Nothing is a given until it happens. Anything can happen with deals like this.

 

[MC3OZ]

I've long held that Teslabot is the new snake charmer.

When there are no cars to plug in, Teslabot can do a song and dance routine, the snake has no arms, and can't play guitar.

 

[StealthP3D]

No it can’t. Elon said they are hoping to be at 2 million annual run rate by end of the year. Meaning, there’s no way they could make materially more than 500,000 in Q4. Especially when you consider that for the first half of Q4, they won’t be at the 2 million annual run rate. If 1.5 million is going to happen, Q4 has to be at least 400k, if not 420k.

That's a reasonable point. Just be aware that 2 million run rate is a very round number and probably a bit of a low-ball in terms of what Elon thinks is potentially possible while the 1.5 million for 2022 is more aspirational than it is in the bag. This means there are a number of ways the numbers could play out.

 

[thesmokingman]

Crosses fingers tomorrow's an up day.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's a reasonable point. Just be aware that $2 million is a very round number and probably a bit of a low-ball in terms of what Elon thinks is potentially possible while the 1.5 million for 2022 is more aspirational than it is in the bag. This means there are a number of ways the numbers could play out.

Yeah it’s definitely possible that they try and overshoot the 2 million annual run rate and then hit that number earlier in the quarter

 

[Causalien]

And yet Elon gave a different answer. This is the first time on record, at least that I could find, that he put "dividends or buybacks" on the table.

Tesla dolling out dividend would be too much for me lol. I wouldn't know how to spend the money. Also 50% taxed on it.

 

[Big Time]

This split timing could be great. Finalize the split about a month before Q3 earnings. With a lower price, a 10%-20% move will be a money maker.

Roll out the barrel

 

[Ogre]

I missed the earnings call live and just finished watching it. Fortunately I have a DVR so I was able to skip all of those annoying 3m advertisements.

I give the show 2 thumbs up. The plot was decent, a bit predictable but for a show like this that's just fine. It was a bit slow at time and could have used a bit of editing and better directing, but the most of the actors did a great job. The annual shareholders meeting was mostly just a confirmation that the good things are still good and that there are no new bad things.

If you missed it, you might want to watch the movie Brazil, only imagine that guy Tuttle is Elon Musk. The movie is a bit more intense; also the annual report lacked the weird dream sequence and had a more upbeat ending.





I hear next year's Annual Shareholder's meeting based on A Clockwork Orange.

 

[Baumisch]

If 50 packs recycled per week that mean about 2600 cars needing replacements (or cars getting junked) per year.

That resonated with me as out-of-warranty ModelS owners get offered new packs now globally, so it felt already like Tesla running out of 85packs to "remanufacture" aka "repair and bolt together old packs to get replacements". So 50 packs a week from old Model S pre-FL seams reasonable to me.

 

[NicoV]

In Elons comments about battery recycling he mentioned a 12 to 15 year (iirc) typical lifetime of batteries. Which means I shouldn’t hope too much to be able to drive my Model S for 20 years without having to replace the batteries. If 12 years is the average lifetime, and 15 years max, 9 years is probably the start of the failure Gauss curve. Just above the 8 years warranty.
I’d better sell my 6.5 year Model S before the 8 year warranty is over.

 

[ThortsMD]

What are you going to do if he is wrong?

 

[StealthP3D]

I hear next year's Annual Shareholder's meeting based on A Clockwork Orange.

Oh boy! Does this mean they will have prominent TSLAQ leaders in forced attendance seated in front of the slide deck screen with their eyelids held open so they have a good view of the bar charts of Tesla adoption curves and profit growth?

Nothing like a good slide deck of mind-blowing 2023 Tesla results for rehabilitation purposes!

 

[Baumisch]

Yes, they even already have started that to some extent on the new S&X where if it detects rough road it adjusts the suspension for comfort and notifies the cloud so that future Teslas driving through the same area can adjust the suspension before they hit the rough patch.

or just slow down for the majority of the fleet not having airsuspension