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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Can someone let me know when we reach the bottom, I have some spare change to buy more.

Haha, well not sure if it'll be the bottom, but the FED meeting on Sep 21st is highly likely to be an inflection point (whether that's an upturn or downturn remains to be seen). We'll likely get somewhat of a preview when the Aug CPI data comes out on Sep 14, as was mentioned upthread. The FED however remains unpredictable, and macros are dominating TSLA trading right now.

TL;dr Always a good bet to 'buy the dip' and hold.

Cheers!
 
Not me. Suggesting selling a fully paid for house to invest in a single stock may work or may not. Other than that fine.

We didn't sell the house in order to invest, we sold the house because we had moved to the neighboring County and didn't want to be landlords. When the funds cleared, we had to decide how to invest it. I could see no better investment with such little downside as Qualcomm in 2018 so we invested 90% and used the last 10% to pad our cash position to cover unexpected contingencies. I never invest a penny I cannot afford to lose. I have always invested aggressively relative to conventional investment "wisdom" and I compensate for the extra risk by searching out companies with limited downside (meaning they are very unlikely to lose most of their value). Qualcomm, at the time, was a screaming value with a solid and rapidly growing business and a very low share price. I will invest in companies that don't meet that criterion, but I reserve outsized positions for companies that qualify. I kind of break that rule by not selling as the company appreciates to higher valuations but that is justifiable in my style of investing because then I have the trend on my side and its still money I can afford to lose.

My style of investing is not for everyone, and I'm not saying it is. That said, I do believe it's a first principles way of attaining financial freedom that has many times higher chance of success than swing-trading your way to wealth. Essentially, it forgoes somewhat consistent results from year to year for much higher long-term appreciation and a higher chance of attaining more while starting with less. The reason I don't recommend it for everyone is it requires a more rigorous and accurate analysis of the risks of failure and chances of success and not everyone is well suited to doing that well.

It's also an investment style of opportunity. That means that in my 30 plus years of investing, most of the time I cannot even identify a single stock that has such a high reward/risk ratio that it justifies such an outsized investment. That's how rare it is for a stock to have such a high reward/risk ratio using the kind of analysis I do to identify such potential possibilities. And it's more of an exercise in philosophy, consumer behavior, legal analysis and human nature than it is a financial spreadsheet. Determining the odds of the success or failure of a company is not easy which is why I watched TSLA for over 8 years before I bought my first share in 2018 and my first significant position in 2019. I studied QCOM for two plus years before I bought my first share.

Apologies for the length of this but I felt the comment above misrepresented what I actually said. BTW, the summer cabin that we moved into was fully paid for as well. All paid for with massive stock appreciation of companies like MSFT and SBUX in the late 80's to early '90's. Any money we make from selling real estate is incidental, not part of a strategy to build wealth. We only buy real estate that we want to own, not for the capital gains potential. Making money in stocks is simply too easy vs. real estate speculation (or, heaven forbid, being landlords), so we sell any property we no longer want to use and invest the money in the market. It's always worked for us, but I encourage everyone to do it their own way.
 
Just to illustrate how amazing Telsa's growth is -

Nio grew Aug sales by 86% YoY. Sounds good and all, right? Well in a vacuum, it is.

But Tesla grew Shanghai sales by 74% YoY..........at 7X the scale of sales.

When you actually do the proper math.......Nio fell way, way.........way behind Tesla's actual growth rate. Just for Nio to be keeping pace, they would have needed to grow sales to the tune of 400% YoY.

.......Good luck Nio (and competition)
 
We didn't sell the house in order to invest, we sold the house because we had moved to the neighboring County and didn't want to be landlords. When the funds cleared, we had to decide how to invest it. I could see no better investment with such little downside as Qualcomm in 2018 so we invested 90% and used the last 10% to pad our cash position to cover unexpected contingencies. I never invest a penny I cannot afford to lose. I have always invested aggressively relative to conventional investment "wisdom" and I compensate for the extra risk by searching out companies with limited downside (meaning they are very unlikely to lose most of their value). Qualcomm, at the time, was a screaming value with a solid and rapidly growing business and a very low share price. I will invest in companies that don't meet that criterion, but I reserve outsized positions for companies that qualify. I kind of break that rule by not selling as the company appreciates to higher valuations but that is justifiable in my style of investing because then I have the trend on my side and its still money I can afford to lose.

My style of investing is not for everyone, and I'm not saying it is. That said, I do believe it's a first principles way of attaining financial freedom that has many times higher chance of success than swing-trading your way to wealth. Essentially, it forgoes somewhat consistent results from year to year for much higher long-term appreciation and a higher chance of attaining more while starting with less. The reason I don't recommend it for everyone is it requires a more rigorous and accurate analysis of the risks of failure and chances of success and not everyone is well suited to doing that well.

It's also an investment style of opportunity. That means that in my 30 plus years of investing, most of the time I cannot even identify a single stock that has such a high reward/risk ratio that it justifies such an outsized investment. That's how rare it is for a stock to have such a high reward/risk ratio using the kind of analysis I do to identify such potential possibilities. And it's more of an exercise in philosophy, consumer behavior, legal analysis and human nature than it is a financial spreadsheet. Determining the odds of the success or failure of a company is not easy which is why I watched TSLA for over 8 years before I bought my first share in 2018 and my first significant position in 2019. I studied QCOM for two plus years before I bought my first share.

Apologies for the length of this but I felt the comment above misrepresented what I actually said. BTW, the summer cabin that we moved into was fully paid for as well. All paid for with massive stock appreciation of companies like MSFT and SBUX in the late 80's to early '90's. Any money we make from selling real estate is incidental, not part of a strategy to build wealth. We only buy real estate that we want to own, not for the capital gains potential. Making money in stocks is simply too easy vs. real estate speculation (or, heaven forbid, being landlords), so we sell any property we no longer want to use and invest the money in the market. It's always worked for us, but I encourage everyone to do it their own way.

What is on your watchlist now? What could be the next QCOM or TSLA?
 
We didn't sell the house in order to invest, we sold the house because we had moved to the neighboring County and didn't want to be landlords. When the funds cleared, we had to decide how to invest it. I could see no better investment with such little downside as Qualcomm in 2018 so we invested 90% and used the last 10% to pad our cash position to cover unexpected contingencies. I never invest a penny I cannot afford to lose. I have always invested aggressively relative to conventional investment "wisdom" and I compensate for the extra risk by searching out companies with limited downside (meaning they are very unlikely to lose most of their value). Qualcomm, at the time, was a screaming value with a solid and rapidly growing business and a very low share price. I will invest in companies that don't meet that criterion, but I reserve outsized positions for companies that qualify. I kind of break that rule by not selling as the company appreciates to higher valuations but that is justifiable in my style of investing because then I have the trend on my side and its still money I can afford to lose.

My style of investing is not for everyone, and I'm not saying it is. That said, I do believe it's a first principles way of attaining financial freedom that has many times higher chance of success than swing-trading your way to wealth. Essentially, it forgoes somewhat consistent results from year to year for much higher long-term appreciation and a higher chance of attaining more while starting with less. The reason I don't recommend it for everyone is it requires a more rigorous and accurate analysis of the risks of failure and chances of success and not everyone is well suited to doing that well.

It's also an investment style of opportunity. That means that in my 30 plus years of investing, most of the time I cannot even identify a single stock that has such a high reward/risk ratio that it justifies such an outsized investment. That's how rare it is for a stock to have such a high reward/risk ratio using the kind of analysis I do to identify such potential possibilities. And it's more of an exercise in philosophy, consumer behavior, legal analysis and human nature than it is a financial spreadsheet. Determining the odds of the success or failure of a company is not easy which is why I watched TSLA for over 8 years before I bought my first share in 2018 and my first significant position in 2019. I studied QCOM for two plus years before I bought my first share.

Apologies for the length of this but I felt the comment above misrepresented what I actually said. BTW, the summer cabin that we moved into was fully paid for as well. All paid for with massive stock appreciation of companies like MSFT and SBUX in the late 80's to early '90's. Any money we make from selling real estate is incidental, not part of a strategy to build wealth. We only buy real estate that we want to own, not for the capital gains potential. Making money in stocks is simply too easy vs. real estate speculation (or, heaven forbid, being landlords), so we sell any property we no longer want to use and invest the money in the market. It's always worked for us, but I encourage everyone to do it their own way.
As a reluctant landlord who almost convinced his spouse to sell our rental this summer, I envy your ability to persuade your other half.
 
Just to illustrate how amazing Telsa's growth is -

Nio grew Aug sales by 86% YoY. Sounds good and all, right? Well in a vacuum, it is.

But Tesla grew Shanghai sales by 74% YoY..........at 7X the scale of sales.

When you actually do the proper math.......Nio fell way, way.........way behind Tesla's actual growth rate. Just for Nio to be keeping pace, they would have needed to grow sales to the tune of 400% YoY.

.......Good luck Nio (and competition)
Is that China sales or sales plus export from the numbers you have for Tesla?
 
ATXG :) It was fun while it lasted for a day

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WTI (and Brent) is breaking below it's 6 months low today. I'm not a chart person and don't understand chart logic, but fundamentally this feels like a solid move into a downtrend for a commodity bid so far out.

There's just enough time before Aug CPI for these futures markets to unwind and stabilize. Another China lockdown is honestly a nice backdrop to the Fed's agenda too.

Keeping the cap on the bulls for literally just tomorrow will be a huge help. Go into the long weekend with oil closing clearly in fresh low territory. Maybe some traders even scurry out of some long held trades before the holiday?

Things are lining up very nicely. Would love to see Putin come to the table on gas supplies one of these days. That would crack the whole oil & gas trade wide open.
 
I'm very tempted. Once I do I know we will be 10% away from the bottom so that will be nice. :D
I did pick one up a leap yesterday placing me at 5% leveraged with the rest in TSLA chairs and very low cash reserve. I've heard folks in the past do about 10% when it's this obvious. But I just can't come to selling chairs at a loss, while in this climate. China lock downs, US gov't blocking AI chips to China, Energy wars... yikes! Only what you can afford to loose as they say. SP should be righteous by a 2024 maturity.
 
@Stealth, informative post. Curious why you sold QCOM last trading day of 1999, instead of first trading day of 2000 to defer the capital gains tax by a full year.

I sold on both dates to spread the capital gains bill over two years. I don't normally recommend timing sales for tax purposes but, in this case, it coincided with my belief that the top could probably not go significantly higher.

It was also Y2K, LOL! A lot of people were actually seriously concerned about that even though a rational analysis showed it wouldn't be anything more than a few sporadic but inconsequential minor glitches.