Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

As the number of deliveries increase, software revenue is going to become more and more significant. Premium connectivity is $10/mo and by end of next year there should be 2-3M cars paying $10/mo each, plus all the FSD subscriptions. I wouldn't be surprised if it is more than $100M/mo in a couple years.

Has anyone seen any evidence of the profit margin for $10/month premium connectivity? We don't know if it's positive or negative, do we?

 

[FSDtester#1]

Elon Musk is the Tom Brady of nerds (us TMC posters). Everyone you know hates him, but he’s actually widely admired and appreciated.

To spell it out, Brady is actually well liked…even though everyone I know and maybe you know hates him. Musk is the same.

Elite opinions are not representative of the public.

Off topic : Tesla mobile service came to my house Friday to fix my GPS from freezing, apparently the GPS is built into the cabin camera staring at us fyi. They just replaced the camera module which was the size of an old cell phone battery.
The more interesting thing from the appointment according to the tech is that Tom Brady just took delivery of a Black 2022 Model S Plaid... The Goat must like driving something from the Goat manufacturer...!

 

[Knightshade]

Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.

Let's help WS out....if :
year 1 = 51%
year 2 = 49%
year 3 = 52%
year 4 = 48%
....Is that a miss vs Tesla's guidance? Shouldn't you have basic math skills to be an analyst?

This was already explained. Weirdly I got 2 disagrees for quoting Tesla specifically guiding 50% or better this year specifically

Here's the exact wording since those 2 people at least appear to have been ignorant of that fact, despite my being the second person to mention it, in fact I'm citing said dates/wording from the first guy who pointed it out.. Quoted dates are from the respective Tesla earnings calls on the dates given.


26 Jan 2022: "We expect ... comfortably above 50% growth in 2022"
20 Apr 2022: "50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year"
20 Jul 2022: "We're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year"


So yes, <50% is a miss per guidance from the last 3 earnings calls

Again, a SUPER understandable one, and clearly they were dialing back certainty of the guidance while still remaining optimistic about the 50% target each quarter- but math is math- feel free to disagree with math but... the mods would prefer I not say what that makes one

 

[Favguy]

This was already explained. Weirdly I got 2 disagrees for quoting Tesla specifically guiding 50% or better this year specifically

Here's the exact wording since those 2 people at least appear to have been ignorant of that fact, despite my being the second person to mention it, in fact I'm citing said dates/wording from the first guy who pointed it out.. Quoted dates are from the respective Tesla earnings calls on the dates given.


26 Jan 2022: "We expect ... comfortably above 50% growth in 2022"
20 Apr 2022: "50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year"
20 Jul 2022: "We're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year"


So yes, <50% is a miss per guidance from the last 3 earnings calls

Again, a SUPER understandable one, and clearly they were dialing back certainty of the guidance while still remaining optimistic about the 50% target each quarter- but math is math- feel free to disagree with math but... the mods would prefer I not say what that makes one

Even if we end up at 49% the usual scum of the earth will spin it as absolutely terrible!

 

[printf42]

I wanted to try out my shiny new CCS to Tesla adapter yesterday, so when I drove up to LA and back, I charged at an Electrify America charger.

Won't be doing that again. The "competition is coming" certainly does not apply to the charging infrastructure. It was so frustrating even I was wanting to go back to petrol.

Problems encountered:
1) not remotely enough chargers (5) for the demand
2) 1 of 5 sites was down
3) inconsiderate drivers. A Porsche Taycan put their charging up to max and went shopping and the car sat there at 99% slow charging for 30 minutes (I eventually unplugged him - CCS doesn't lock like Tesla - and squeezed in and started charging - he got pissy about me unplugging him and them someone called him out for being a prick while there was a line to charge). An ID.4 driver showed up 45 minutes after their car was done charging, didn't seem to care that people were waiting. All of this could have been solved by an IDLE fee like Tesla has, but on the EA charging screen it listed idle fees at $0.00/min. (facepalm)
4) The CCS to Tesla charging experience was "adequate". When I finally got it started (took 12 tries on the credit card reader to get any of my cards to run through for charging - no, I'm not broke), then I had to "prop" up the CCS cable on a pole or it put too much downward pressure and wanted to disconnect.

So much more frustrating than the Tesla experience.

To their defense, there was 20% charging stalls no one was using, so it’s not a high usage site, there is no point limiting slow charging or enforcing idle fees.
/s

 

[mongo]

Weirdly I got 2 disagrees for quoting Tesla specifically calling out 50% or better this year specifically

Yep, you got a disagree from me because they didn't say "50% or better" on every call. When they said pushing to 50, that is not saying 50 or better.

Original post:

Which as others have pointed out- they then specifically said >=50% on every earnings call for this year as guidance.

Which requires them to specifically say "50% or more" on every call.
Which they did not in Q2:

"We're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year"

Still pushing to reach is <=50.

Which makes this statement incorrect:

<50% in 2022 is a miss per Teslas own stated guidance

Based on Q2 guidance, >50% would be the 'miss'.

To be more pedantic, only the Q1 call specifically used >= 50 language:

Assuming Troy's quoting was accurate:

26 Jan 2022: "We expect ... comfortably above 50% growth in 2022"
20 Apr 2022: "50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year"

20 Jul 2022: "We're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year"

Which I commented on earlier

So, Tesla's guidance over the two quarters:
>50% as of Q4 2021 call
~>=50 as of Q1 2022 call, post invasion
<= 50% as of Q2 2022 call, post Shanghai covid which also delayed the upgrades

 

[Discoducky]

So yes, <50% is a miss per guidance from the last 3 earnings calls

If Q4 ends the year at >=50% then they hit guidance though

Hoping for a Deus X Machina moment for that!

 

[Usain]

If I do Youtube or an audio podcast, which I am strongly considering as some people here have encouraged me to do, I would also publish the transcript and any slides or images in some kind of blog format, since that would be minimal extra work.

I started writing on here last year as an impulse and it has spiraled out of control into 1000 posts but the reception has been much better than I was expecting and so I'm starting to think it'd be valuable to put out this content in more mainstream platforms to spread the word more effectively. Dave Lee and Farzad Mezbahi did that and it worked out well for them. What do you all think?

I'm one of those who has been encouraging you. There is definitely a market for more in depth analysis from an engineer's point of view. If it's what you enjoy and you are good at it (you are), then you might as well get paid.

 

[StateoftheArt]

The reason for the disagree is that we here at TMC should be open to differing opinions. To suggest that anyone who is critical of what Elon says or tweets should sell their Tesla stock eventually
Makes TMC an echo chamber .
If we are supportive of Elon opening up Twitter to all unscrupulous elements including white supremacists, racists and a certain former President and leave it up to us to block anyone we don’t like , we should practice the same here in TMC too. If you don’t like an opinion , block the poster , but suggesting that they should agree with everything Elon does or sell is not helping the mission.
I personally believe that Tesla is bigger than Elon . If one man’s actions hurt Tesla , then we should be able to call him out as we see it .

Lol, what a statement.

Ofcourse, you have zero clue that it doesn't make sense.

If one doesn't like Elon's statements a poster can comment. But I can't comment on the posters comment because it would make TMC an echo chamber. Instead of commenting on the comment you are instructing me to block people instead of commenting. All while you comment on my comment instead of just blocking me. Priceless.

Personally, if I had this many supposed "moral" issues with somebody that is running a company I had heavily invested in to the point that I think his ideology is extremely dangerous I would runaway from it. So dangerous that I have to come here every time and warn investors of the dangers. I mean were talking about right wing extremism for crying out loud. It doesn't get any worse than that and Elon is involved in it! Seems like the logical thing to do is sell. He isn't going to change and if he is such a threat wouldn't the logical conclusion be that this is a bad investment?

Or wait does it go like this, "yo, Elon is dangerous with his tweets, he doesn't support the current thing, and it is starting to look like he is joining the KKK, wake up people, wake up, stop being a fan boi, stop being an echo chamber, he is a clear and present threat to our investments, no no no don't sell you stock just whine about it all the time like me while we lose money because of white supremacy"

 

[Knightshade]

Even if we end up at 49% the usual scum of the earth will spin it as absolutely terrible!

Sure, but they'd do that even if Tesla somehow hit (or exceeded) 50 too.

Remember, according to them it's mostly accounting fraud anyway- ballooning AR, too little interest income for claimed amount of cash, goodwilling to keep warranty costs down, demand cliff because there were 0 deliveries in one country in one month, redefining "deliveries" to count used cars, etc...

Even when folks hit them with a wall of How Accounting Actually Works Proving Nothing You Claim Adds Up they keep repeating the same stories.

Any miss is evidence of the fraud falling apart. Any success is just evidence they found a new method to hide it for another quarter.

Hoping Tesla will ever post results that change the minds of those folks is... overly optimistic.

 

[UncaNed]

If I do Youtube or an audio podcast, which I am strongly considering as some people here have encouraged me to do, I would also publish the transcript and any slides or images in some kind of blog format, since that would be minimal extra work.

I started writing on here last year as an impulse and it has spiraled out of control into 1000 posts but the reception has been much better than I was expecting and so I'm starting to think it'd be valuable to put out this content in more mainstream platforms to spread the word more effectively. Dave Lee and Farzad Mezbahi did that and it worked out well for them. What do you all think?

Your highly appreciated posts here are arguably preaching to the quire.

Maybe you should take this ball and run with it, targeting the masses who's perceptions of Elon need correcting and educating.

Edit- yet another reason Tesla won't need advertising, thank you sir!

 

[FireMedic]

I periodically take a look at EV-CPO.com to see what used vehicles Tesla has in stock. If TSLA hadn't tanked I was contemplating a Std range plus with FSD. Friday they had around 150 model 3's listed, today there is 5 in the entire US.

Also my parents picked up their new Texas (non 4680) Model Y at the local service center on Wednesday. It was absolutely flawless and the red paint looked amazing. Texas Model Y's are coming with a different front door trim along with a shelf in the hatch. They waited nearly 13 months to take delivery from the time they ordered.

Pictures or it didn’t happen

Jk. Congrats to your parents.

My parents bought a model Y last year… It was close to flawless; but it came with a year of free super charging. They absolutely love it. I was worried with them in their 70’s that it would be a tough adjustment. Now my dad complains when he needs to drive a gas car

 

[JRP3]

Tesla Cleared All Doubts About Alleged Cheating In Euro NCAP Safety Tests

Strong accusations forced Euro NCAP authorities to investigate Tesla for alleged fraud in the European crash tests series. However, absolutely no trace of cheating in any possible way was detected by the European inspectors.

www.torquenews.com

 

[heltok]

This was already explained. Weirdly I got 2 disagrees for quoting Tesla specifically guiding 50% or better this year specifically

Here's the exact wording since those 2 people at least appear to have been ignorant of that fact, despite my being the second person to mention it, in fact I'm citing said dates/wording from the first guy who pointed it out.. Quoted dates are from the respective Tesla earnings calls on the dates given.


26 Jan 2022: "We expect ... comfortably above 50% growth in 2022"
20 Apr 2022: "50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year"
20 Jul 2022: "We're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year"


So yes, <50% is a miss per guidance from the last 3 earnings calls

Again, a SUPER understandable one, and clearly they were dialing back certainty of the guidance while still remaining optimistic about the 50% target each quarter- but math is math- feel free to disagree with math but... the mods would prefer I not say what that makes one

I expect 50% growth this year for the number of unspecified metrics being discussed. Are we talking about production? Deliveries? Production rate? Revenue? Earnings?

I hate it when media, bears etc say that Tesla or Elon said this or that, without providing the quote. When you dig down, you find that yeah, they said something that with a very generous interpretation could mean that. But it could also mean something very different. So yeah, maybe they were wrong, but maybe they were not. It's not the slam dunk that some people seem to think. We should always make sure that our statements are falsifiable, unless we are in politics or finance where it's actually better to make unfalsifiable statements to never be wrong. Engineers tries to be less wrong over time, politicians pretend to never be wrong. It's okay to be wrong, what matters is if you are making profit, growing and winning, not if you happen to be wrong. Bears will point out that Elon is a liar and a fraud given that he said 1million robotaxis on the street 2020 or something like that. No he didn't say that, but even if he did that's not super relevant, the relevant thing is that 160k actual customers are using it today and that it's rapidly improving without anything major indicating that progress will slow. Focus more on deeds than words.

 

[MC3OZ]

Lol, what a statement.

Ofcourse, you have zero clue that it doesn't make sense.

If one doesn't like Elon's statements a poster can comment. But I can't comment on the posters comment because it would make TMC an echo chamber. Instead of commenting on the comment you are instructing me to block people instead of commenting. All while you comment on my comment instead of just blocking me. Priceless.

Personally, if I had this many supposed "moral" issues with somebody that is running a company I had heavily invested in to the point that I think his ideology is extremely dangerous I would runaway from it. So dangerous that I have to come here every time and warn investors of the dangers. I mean were talking about right wing extremism for crying out loud. It doesn't get any worse than that and Elon is involved in it! Seems like the logical thing to do is sell. He isn't going to change and if he is such a threat wouldn't the logical conclusion be that this is a bad investment?

Or wait does it go like this, "yo, Elon is dangerous with his tweets, he doesn't support the current thing, and it is starting to look like he is joining the KKK, wake up people, wake up, stop being a fan boi, stop being an echo chamber, he is a clear and present threat to our investments, no no no don't sell you stock just whine about it all the time like me while we lose money because of white supremacy"

The brilliant engineer Elon who runs very successful disruptive companies, is the same dude that posts dumb stuff on Twitter.

Elon is building on hard work in earlier eras, his chances of success now are higher now than in 2019, and much higher than in 2010.

Those who boarded the train earlier had higher risk, but were rewarded accordingly. Personally I am happy to stay on board the train, but no one is forced to stay on board.

Elon's relationship with the left went off the rails when Fremont was closed due to Covid.

The Thai Soccer team sub rescue and Starlink in Ukraine are examples of Elon trying very hard to be constructive and to do the right thing, but unfortunately annoying a lot of people in the process. Just Elon being Elon.

If you are going to worry about the social media stumbles, you will not enjoy the ride. IMO the next "social media" stumble could occur at anytime.

You will notice a lot of critics call Elon a "Billionaire" that is no coincidence, they are predisposed to not like Billionaires. In reality the amount of money someone has had little relationship to whether or not they are a nice person, and being nice has little impact on whether or not they are successful.

So far, social media stumbles haven't prevented Elon from being successful.

 

[GOVA]

I find it a 'bit' dishartening that the robot called the Optimus has lost its vibe so quickly. Apparently, people have been stuck at/with numbers, blah-blah-50% not found crap.
In any case, my movie recommendations for those who give a button:

The Machine (2013)
Ex Machina (2014)
Chappie (2015)
I'm mother (2019)
A.I. (2001)

In summary, the Tesla Robot has already changed the humanity.

 

[Gigapress]

Off topic : Tesla mobile service came to my house Friday to fix my GPS from freezing, apparently the GPS is built into the cabin camera staring at us fyi. They just replaced the camera module which was the size of an old cell phone battery.
The more interesting thing from the appointment according to the tech is that Tom Brady just took delivery of a Black 2022 Model S Plaid... The Goat must like driving something from the Goat manufacturer...!

Tom Brady still liking Tesla and buying another new one is definitely on topic in my opinion. Companies pay millions of dollars for A-list celebrity product endorsements for a reason: it works.

Humans tend to mimic behaviors exhibited by high-status leaders, often without even consciously realizing they’re doing it, and also human memory is associative, which marketing takes advantage of by making consumers associate products being promoted with stimuli such as unusually beautiful faces, sexual innuendo, smiling, babies laughing, pleasant weather, upbeat music, flowers, etc. Normally this kind of bullsugar is unethical social engineering done to manipulate behavior with irrational associations, but in Tesla’s case it’s just organic and happens because prominent, respected people want the product.

I’m pretty sure Air Jordans didn’t become the best-selling shoe lineup of all time because they were radically better for playing basketball in or radically more stylish than competing sneaker options.

Tesla’s difference is that celebrities pay Tesla for the privilege of endorsing the product, and they pay full price and wait in line for months like everybody else, with no VIP perks whatsoever. That’s the most genuine endorsement you can get, and it’s been going on since 2007 when folks like Arnold Schwarzenegger and George Clooney were rolling around in the Roadster. Yet another reason we don’t need advertising.

 

[verystandard]

Not sure if this has been posted here but Troy the carebear is doing it's work for MSM's headline tomorrow again (Low estimate release sunday evening, perfect timing?)

Anyone can help out?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581736739638546434

 

[Knightshade]

I expect 50% growth this year for the number of unspecified metrics being discussed. Are we talking about production? Deliveries? Production rate? Revenue? Earnings?

I hate it when media, bears etc say that Tesla or Elon said this or that, without providing the quote.

I mean, I literally provided exact quotes, sourced and dated.


But sure if you are still somehow unclear WHAT growth, here's a longer version from the call Jan 26 2022:

supply chain will continue to be the fundamental limiter of output across all factories. So the chip shortage, while better than last year, is still an issue. And, yeah, so that's -- there are multiple supply chain challenges. And last year was difficult to predict, and hopefully, this year will be smooth sailing, but, you know, I'm not sure what you do for an encore to 2021, 2020.

Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, you know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022.

So he's explicitly talking about comfortably >50% growth in production in 2022.

The 50% comment from Zach, specifically "our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year" is preceded by:

Looking ahead in the immediate term, a few things to keep in mind for Q2. First, we’ve lost about a month of build volume out of our factory in Shanghai due to COVID related shutdowns. Production is resuming at limited levels, and we’re working to get back to full production as quickly as possible. This will impact total build and delivery volume in Q2.

He does have some financial stuff in there too- specifically about the gross margin hit ramping new plants might cause (but then nobody, including Tesla, ever said GM would increase 50% YoY so clearly he's not talking about THAT). So I suppose you could argue about if he means 50% or greater for production (which Elon explicitly said previous call with that >50% goal- and Zach mentions 4 times in his own quote) or deliveries (which he mentions once and Elon never did. But certainly not anything else, and it's be a stretch to think that was not about production in context.


And the 20 Jul 2022 call? Zach again

finally, despite losing more builds in Q3 than expected, we're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year. This target has become more difficult but it remains possible with strong execution.

And as Elon mentioned, no more force majeure events for the balance of the year.

So "builds" is production. Same as Zach talked about previous call, and Elon did on the one before that.

How anybody still manages to get to "Well, how do we KNOW they meant 50% growth in production?" is just mind boggling.


Sometimes Tesla doesn't do what they say they will. They've got fantastic actually-happened reasons why they missed here....
(unlike say Elons promise to cover every major area of North American within 3-6 months with service centers back in 2018)
...but it's gonna be a miss if they don't get to 50%.

That's life. Stuff happens.

The # whatever it ends up being will still be ridiculously good compared to every other car maker, and doubly so given the supply chain, china lockdown, and other headwinds.

When you dig down, you find that yeah, they said something that with a very generous interpretation could mean that. But it could also mean something very different.

Except, no, it really can't in this case.

2 of 3 times they literally told you what it meant- production and the third they mentioned both production and deliveries but production 4 times vs 1 for deliveries.

So yeah, maybe they were wrong, but maybe they were not. It's not the slam dunk that some people seem to think.

It's not just a river in Egypt my dude

It's okay to be wrong

Yes it is- and you are

, what matters is if you are making profit, growing and winning, not if you happen to be wrong.

Then why devote that much mental gymnastics to trying to deny what they literally told us was the guidance for 2022?

They're making fantastic profit, they're growing at fantastic rates, and winning all over the place. The fact they guided to 50% (or better for 2/3 calls) but might only get into the mid-high 40s doesn't change any of that.

Bears will point out that Elon is a liar and a fraud given that he said 1million robotaxis on the street 2020 or something like that. No he didn't say that

Except, of course, he literally said that (well, road, not street)

Next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road

River. Egypt.

THIS kinda stuff is why folks make those echo chamber comments about other folks in this thread.

, but even if he did that's not super relevant

Than I ask again- why deny a thing he actually said if it's not super relevant?

, the relevant thing is that 160k actual customers are using it today

No, they're not.

I'm one of those 160k, and have been for over a year. It's NOT a robotaxi.

It's an absolutely amazing L2 system that does very well with human supervision.

If you'd like to get more into the weeds on why the system currently being tested is not "robotaxi" there's plenty of deep dives available here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[phantasms]

@Knightshade You fixed the thing on the internet. You can go to bed now.