Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

All 3 of my children (2 girls and 1 boy, teen+) have the Tesla roadster 2.0 as their dream car. THAT is why the Roadster needs to exist.

And I just need the stock to get back to ATH so I can afford to keep mine vs flipping it.

 

[jerry33]

Haters keep hating, but Elon keeps winning:

Notice how much better the cameras are during landing compared to earlier videos.

 

[unk45]

For anyone who thinks the Roadster will not be launched or that the X.com vision is gone because of Elon's response to a structure question last night I suggest watching this video of him receiving his McLaren and talking about the financial vision.

 

[Mark Alset]

Heavy volume today. Will soon breach the avg daily volume and we are only ~2.5 hrs into the trading session.

Lots of discussion about the need for Elon to sell, with his trading window opening tomorrow (Friday). Could be epic squeeze if he has more $ than necessary to close the TWTR deal and instead buys back shares--at a time when the market makers are positioned to capitalize on his selling.

 

[insaneoctane]

I was thinking about the unwinding the wave comments, there are not enough transportation vehicles to handle the wave. So when Tesla gets to steady state, at some point the same issue of not enough vehicles (ships, trains, trucks, etc) will be reached in steady state.

My question is, how far off is that point? At 50% growth rate that same issue will happen in steady state in what? Two or 3 years.

From the comments on last nights call, I think 50% will be on the bear case side, with the new factory ramps and the new model that will outsell all other models combined in 2-4 years.

Well if FSD/Robotaxis actually materialize, the cars can transport themselves to the destination. That sounds like a first principals solution to the problem if you believe the premise. I wonder if people would have any issues to increased mileage on their brand new car? Maybe they'd be given the choice of FSD delivery that costs $100 to $200 (just having to wash and prep closer to final destination) with a hundred or so miles on the odometer, or traditional transport for $1,200 to $1,500?

 

[wipster]

Speaks for itself...

Tesla Model Y on track to become fourth best selling car in the world in 2022

The Tesla Model Y is only a couple of years old, but it is already leaping up the sales charts and is currently on track to become the fourth best selling car in the world [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Heavy volume today. Will soon breach the avg daily volume and we are only ~2.5 hrs into the trading session.

Lots of discussion about the need for Elon to sell, with his trading window opening tomorrow (Friday). Could be epic squeeze if he has more $ than necessary to close the TWTR deal and instead buys back shares--at a time when the market makers are positioned to capitalize on his selling.

The rumor started by CNBC this morning that Elon is frantically sending out emails to request more investors wreaks of an orchestrated short FUD scheme.

 

[wipster]

I'm not sure 3 days to assemble a Semi is a good thing. By the end of 2023 they are planning to produce ~150 per day. But maybe they will need a new/additional assembly line somewhere else.

But at that rate, assuming parts are available, maybe we will see 30-50 delivered in early December...

Posted this on the Semi forum, but it kind of answers your concerns:

 

[mb300sd]

Well if FSD/Robotaxis actually materialize, the cars can transport themselves to the destination. That sounds like a first principals solution to the problem if you believe the premise. I wonder if people would have any issues to increased mileage on their brand new car? Maybe they'd be given the choice of FSD delivery that costs $100 to $200 (just having to wash and prep closer to final destination) with a hundred or so miles on the odometer, or traditional transport for $1,200 to $1,500?

Increased mileage wouldn't bother me as much as the potential paint damage. Only got to drive my Plaid 2 miles on pickup day - service center to PPF shop.

 

[insaneoctane]

As Zachary pointed out, we don't even know what the final eligibility criteria looks like until the Treasury provides guidance. Elon was trying to make high-level statements that everything will be met, but there's a ton of nuance beyond such high-level claims that would require a lot of further digging to clarify and that should be obvious to people who have already done their research into the IRA verbiage.

If you come away from the call believing there will be unlimited supply of vehicles qualifying for both of the $3,750 chunks initially and then as the thresholds continue increasing over the next handful of years, I think you'll be disappointed.

OK. Let's revisit your comment at the end of the year...let's see who's right, you or Elon.

 

[30seconds]

The rumor started by CNBC this morning that Elon is frantically sending out emails to request more investors wreaks of an orchestrated short FUD scheme.

So far it seems that most of the bear takes on this deal have been correct

 

[dhanson865]

Increased mileage wouldn't bother me as much as the potential paint damage. Only got to drive my Plaid 2 miles on pickup day - service center to PPF shop.

Imagine the robo drive of shame if you reject delivery and it has to drive back to the closest delivery center.

 

[AndrewZ]

Pulling a out of the article items that dont go to consumer

Battery Cells get $35 * kwh of cell
Battery Modules get $10 * kwh of module

100kwh battery pack for a Model S/X would get $4500
Model 3/Y have what 75kwh packs so $3375. This right here more than pays for Tesla dropping price of Model 3 LR to $54,999.
Semi has what 1000kwh packs so $45000
Powerwall has I think a 10kwh pack so $450
Megapack I dont know, but you get the idea

Solar was sunsetting. It was 26% in 2022, was going to be 22% in 2023 and then gone. Now effected Jan 1 2022 (yes backdated) boosted back to 30% for 10 years. Battery storage costs now can be part of the project. At one point non solar and battery parts of project would also be included like if you needed new roof before solar should be installed. Not sure if that made it into final part of legislation.

Also new incentives for heat pumps, doubt that does anything for automotive. Still hints have been dropped about Tesla doing home heat pumps. Maybe before programs sunset Tesla is in that business.

Are we just ignoring caveats around these credits being adjusted based on things like mass, capacity, sale price, and production cost?

My issue with this is optimistically believing these will remain unchanged and this will effectively be a taxpayer-funded profit center for companies, and I don't think that's the intent. This is designed to bring manufacturing capacity to our shores, and that is way overdue, by offsetting what will surely be much higher manufacturing costs. If the manufacturing costs are not onerous for some parties, I don't think the IRS will be shunting over taxpayer money to grossly increase margins for corporations.

This should help reduce the additional costs for consumers buying vehicles with domestically-sourced battery components etc and that should be good for adoption, but I would be a bit more reasonable in terms of what this might mean for the bottom line. I think if anything, Wall Street believes the IRS will not effectively be using taxpayer money to line shareholder pockets.

 

[wtlloyd]

The rumor started by CNBC this morning that Elon is frantically sending out emails to request more investors wreaks of an orchestrated short FUD scheme.

"My name is Reek, rhymes with wreaks".

 

[Unpilot]

Notice how much better the cameras are during landing compared to earlier videos.

Because it's all fake...duh/s

 

[elasalle]

The rumor started by CNBC this morning that Elon is frantically sending out emails to request more investors wreaks of an orchestrated short FUD scheme.

Short or Long FUD? Max pain 240.

Hedgies sold bunch of PUTS expecting Elon to unload this morning. (Seems Mr. Market knows this too ... and hedgies are short, short puts etc with less monies than Elon ... so who would blink 1st )
Now MM are after Elon or the Hedgies

All Elon needs to do is not sell till like next Thurs we will see mini-rally

 

[MP3Mike]

If the manufacturing costs are not onerous for some parties, I don't think the IRS will be shunting over taxpayer money to grossly increase margins for corporations.

Where in the law does it say anything about costs having to be onerous to qualify for the credits? (The IRS can't make up conditions like that on their own.)

 

[AndrewZ]

OK. Let's revisit your comment at the end of the year...let's see who's right, you or Elon.

I don't think Elon is saying anything incorrect necessarily, I think he's making high-level comments that are generally correct but require a lot of qualification when you dig into details that will very much matter for both investors and people looking to utilize these credits.

 

[wipster]

For anyone who thinks the Roadster will not be launched or that the X.com vision is gone because of Elon's response to a structure question last night I suggest watching this video of him receiving his McLaren and talking about the financial vision.

Hmmm, Young Elon... do I sense a future TV show?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

And I just need the stock to get back to ATH so I can afford to keep mine vs flipping it.

I think that will be the case for a lot of us with the Cybertruck. I'll probably need a SP of 350 to justify keeping one and 400 to justify keeping both orders.