Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

So did Tesla loan repayment contribute to this miss, or was it insignificant compared to Total Revenue?

• Q3 Revenue: $21.45 billion versus $22.09 billion expected
• Q3 Adjusted EPS: $1.05 versus $1.01 expected

Loan repayment is a balance sheet item. It doesn’t affect income. It does affect cash on hand.

 

[MP3Mike]

And this from the elusive Zangler... still haven't said where he's getting his info, but this might be the reason the Giga Nevada folks are so secretive:
View attachment 865730View attachment 865731

I'm not sure 3 days to assemble a Semi is a good thing. By the end of 2023 they are planning to produce ~150 per day. But maybe they will need a new/additional assembly line somewhere else.

But at that rate, assuming parts are available, maybe we will see 30-50 delivered in early December...

 

[AndrewZ]

Tesla we will get every single one of the incentives in the IRA

As Zachary pointed out, we don't even know what the final eligibility criteria looks like until the Treasury provides guidance. Elon was trying to make high-level statements that everything will be met, but there's a ton of nuance beyond such high-level claims that would require a lot of further digging to clarify and that should be obvious to people who have already done their research into the IRA verbiage.

If you come away from the call believing there will be unlimited supply of vehicles qualifying for both of the $3,750 chunks initially and then as the thresholds continue increasing over the next handful of years, I think you'll be disappointed.

 

[Mengy]

I'm not sure 3 days to assemble a Semi is a good thing. By the end of 2023 they are planning to produce ~150 per day. But maybe they will need a new/additional assembly line somewhere else.

But at that rate, assuming parts are available, maybe we will see 30-50 delivered in early December...

Production ramp takes time, but every journey begins with a first step, and you have to learn to crawl before you walk, and then run.

 

[wipster]

I'm not sure 3 days to assemble a Semi is a good thing. By the end of 2023 they are planning to produce ~150 per day. But maybe they will need a new/additional assembly line somewhere else.

But at that rate, assuming parts are available, maybe we will see 30-50 delivered in early December...

Remember, Giga Nevada is just a starting point, the real manufacturing/production will be done at Austin. I think they're just testing things out at Reno right now and making Semis at the same time.

Plus @mongo was wondering if they can make these in parallel, as was I. Can't really get much out of Zanegler so far...

 

[larmor]

Was there any information on the next gigafactory(s)? "With great goals come great capital expenditures." (adapted from spiderman movies)

 

[larmor]

Production ramp takes time, but every journey begins with a first step, and you have to learn to crawl before you walk, and then run.

If it is built at the top of the ramp, it can be rolled down, just like other tesla semi killer competitor products...

 

[StealthP3D]

This might help, click on the different tabs to change your view.

Top publicly traded automakers by revenue

Up to date list of the largest publicly traded automakers by revenue (TTM).

companiesmarketcap.com

Keep in mind, the TTM data doesn't take the most recent quarter into consideration, so you are looking at things as they stood Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Things are changing rapidly for Tesla relative to the rest of the auto industry.

 

[Spacep0d]

There is a logic to super cars. One of the things they do is develop new technologies that eventually lead down to cheaper models. So they serve the front of advertising and research and development. The fact that Tesla does not advertise at all means the roadster is probably more important to Tesla than something like the new Cadillac is to GM. The new roadster will generate a huge amount of buzz when it is on the road. And on top of all that, the numbers it is made and will actually lead to positive profits.

There's also something to be said for a no-holds-barred, best-effort EV by Tesla—the ultimate flagship. If Tesla doesn't do it with the Roadster, other manufacturers will do it and claim bragging rights. It's not just a vehicle for those who can afford it, but bragging rights about EV tech generally which will trounce the ICE 'competition' along with lesser EVs. This dovetails into the great point made in this thread about the Roadster being a passive and powerful advertisement for Tesla and EVs generally.

What new tech can Tesla demonstrate with the Roadster? How about the SpaceX cold thruster package? This flexes not just Tesla muscle; it's a hardware proof-of-concept that demonstrates cross-pollination between two Elon-run companies, Tesla and SpaceX. Which other manufacturer has this? Zero.

We know that Elon allows engineers to work between both Tesla and SpaceX if they desire, and what's better for the best and brightest engineers than a chance to be part of history-making pursuits in real-world AI, the world's best EVs, and spaceships that resupply the I.S.S and land on their struts? Engineers can work on a variety of projects, including some I didn't mention. Talk about exciting. No wonder new engineering graduates want to work for Tesla and/or SpaceX, and they really can work at both.

And, that's just what's happening now. Elon being Elon, we know he wants to go beyond Earth, and I have no doubt that he'll do it.

Jay Leno's Garage and others will test this vehicle and talk about it, and as others have said it's an enduring and exciting advertisement, especially if someone sees it in-person. It'll destroy other vehicles at the dragstrip in sensational, evergreen videos which will drive endless conversations not just about the superiority of Tesla (and SpaceX) but the superiority of EVs over ICE, assuming there's anyone left that needs convincing.

If money were no object I'd have a Tesla Roadster v2 in white with a black interior and with the SpaceX package. Until then, I'll have to keep investing and watching with bated bull breath to see what Tesla unveils in the future. If history is any guide, it's going to be far better than we think.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Doesn't feel like a robust-enough solution. If you don't discover the notification until you are far away, you're already screwed with overage charges. This is a crappy customer experience that should have been solved by the manufacturer. What if the passenger was drunk?

If the car is double-parked with the doors open, it just continues to sit there and block a perfectly good lane of traffic?

What sucks is that much of the 3/Y was designed with autonomous driving in mind (lack of binnacle, auto-returning stalks, etc), they didn't address the doors. I get that from a cost-reduction perspective, particularly during 2018-2019 production hell, but the fact that they never added that later indicates to me that 3/Y were never seriously considered to be robotaxi vehicles.

I guarantee that this upcoming dedicated robotaxi platform/car will have auto-closing doors. It's so fundamental.

I have the opposite problem. People don't know how to open my doors. So no customers?

Of all the things that change with robotaxi, doors are the last issue I'd be concerned with. Lot's changing. What about people walking out in front of them and stopping traffic? Our society will (eventually) treat these as violations. And with cameras everywhere - no question who did what. People could lose their right to a taxi if abusive, and then they'd need to get rides from a friend who are also riders, or find a legit driver (and never leave the door open again).

 

[betstarship]

Keep in mind, the TTM data doesn't take the most recent quarter into consideration, so you are looking at things as they stood Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. Things are changing rapidly for Tesla relative to the rest of the auto industry.

Tesla is running up that chart like Leeroy Jenkins.

Source:

Edit: this is probably a terrible analogy in hindsight lol

 

[thx1139]

As Zachary pointed out, we don't even know what the final eligibility criteria looks like until the Treasury provides guidance. Elon was trying to make high-level statements that everything will be met, but there's a ton of nuance beyond such high-level claims that would require a lot of further digging to clarify and that should be obvious to people who have already done their research into the IRA verbiage.

If you come away from the call believing there will be unlimited supply of vehicles qualifying for both of the $3,750 chunks initially and then as the thresholds continue increasing over the next handful of years, I think you'll be disappointed.

I come away from the call knowing that the $3750 per chunk is only part of the incentives. That is the incentive for consumers. That isnt the incentives for battery cell and battery module production, that isnt the incentive for Semi purchasers, that isnt the incentive for Solar purchasers, that isnt the incentive for Powerwall purchasers. Thing is I knew that before the call and Tesla just came away very confident that they will be eligible for all or nearly all of them. Wall Street barely even thinks about them.

 

[Stormy24]

All Tesla need to do is continue charging the customer until they have left vehicle and all doors are closed. They can easily send alerts through the app accordingly if they leave car in a state that is not ready for the next customer.

I just don’t get the problem. I have never got out of a car and left a door open. If they can use an app they can close a door. And if they get charged if they don’t it can just sit there charging them.

 

[lafrisbee]

Lagigavelon (Distiller's Edition at Drizly)

Say that first word aloud..it sound so scotchish.​

 

[ZachF]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ldpETOlv9qw/Vlrrj1nHMHI/AAAAAAABWlM/0xDC8Cb9iUU/s1600/screen480x480.jpg

Mod: We VERY MUCH PREFER that people don't post just links without saying something about what they lead to. In this case I will vouchsafe the link and leave it here, but please don't make a habit of it. I came very close to deleting this post. --ggr

 

[AndrewZ]

I come away from the call knowing that the $3750 per chunk is only part of the incentives. That is the incentive for consumers. That isnt the incentives for battery cell and battery module production, that isnt the incentive for Semi purchasers, that isnt the incentive for Solar purchasers, that isnt the incentive for Powerwall purchasers. Thing is I knew that before the call and Tesla just came away very confident that they will be eligible for all or nearly all of them. Wall Street barely even thinks about them.

Can you cite the sections in the IRA outlining these incentives being ignored by Wall Street? I'd love to read this over in the legislation itself

 

[bkp_duke]

Can you cite the sections in the IRA outlining these incentives being ignored by Wall Street? I'd love to read this over in the legislation itself

Inflation Reduction Act seeks to jumpstart electric vehicle market | DLA Piper

www.dlapiper.com

The Inflation Reduction Act’s key incentives for EV adoption

Nonprofit the Zero Emission Transportation Association has highlighted the IRA’s main incentives for boosting EV adoption across the US.

www.energymonitor.ai

It's there, and it's huge for battery producers.

 

[thx1139]

Inflation Reduction Act seeks to jumpstart electric vehicle market | DLA Piper

www.dlapiper.com

The Inflation Reduction Act’s key incentives for EV adoption

Nonprofit the Zero Emission Transportation Association has highlighted the IRA’s main incentives for boosting EV adoption across the US.

www.energymonitor.ai

It's there, and it's huge for battery producers.

Pulling a out of the article items that dont go to consumer

Battery Cells get $35 * kwh of cell
Battery Modules get $10 * kwh of module

100kwh battery pack for a Model S/X would get $4500
Model 3/Y have what 75kwh packs so $3375. This right here more than pays for Tesla dropping price of Model 3 LR to $54,999.
Semi has what 1000kwh packs so $45000
Powerwall has I think a 10kwh pack so $450
Megapack I dont know, but you get the idea

Solar was sunsetting. It was 26% in 2022, was going to be 22% in 2023 and then gone. Now effected Jan 1 2022 (yes backdated) boosted back to 30% for 10 years. Battery storage costs now can be part of the project. At one point non solar and battery parts of project would also be included like if you needed new roof before solar should be installed. Not sure if that made it into final part of legislation.

Also new incentives for heat pumps, doubt that does anything for automotive. Still hints have been dropped about Tesla doing home heat pumps. Maybe before programs sunset Tesla is in that business.

 

[bkp_duke]

Haters keep hating, but Elon keeps winning:

 

[insaneoctane]

There is a logic to super cars. One of the things they do is develop new technologies that eventually lead down to cheaper models. So they serve the front of advertising and research and development. The fact that Tesla does not advertise at all means the roadster is probably more important to Tesla than something like the new Cadillac is to GM. The new roadster will generate a huge amount of buzz when it is on the road. And on top of all that, the numbers it is made and will actually lead to positive profits.

All 3 of my children (2 girls and 1 boy, teen+) have the Tesla roadster 2.0 as their dream car. THAT is why the Roadster needs to exist.