Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I think if anything, Wall Street believes the IRS will not effectively be using taxpayer money to line shareholder pockets.

WS should believe that because this is common. We have subsidies or tariffs on all sorts of crazy things.

The US spends 4 billion a year to subsidize sugar. No, that isn’t TMC censorship, actual sugar.

 

[larmor]

Oppenheimer's Colin Rusch raises TSLA target from $432 to $436.

CNBC - today:

Any comment on how Tesla will get to multiple new gigafactories? Are investment banks/institutions raising PTs so they can be first in line for funding or are they finally realizing that every tesla made is all ready sold?

 

[navguy12]

Because it's all fake...duh/s

Obviously using Kubrick techniques

 

[wtlloyd]

OK so 1 year ago today I said
.....
I was wrong about how quickly Giga Texas would ramp up.

You aren't alone. Turns out each locality and iteration of the Gigafactory brings new challenges. It's not just a duplication of what came before.
Who knew?

 

[Unpilot]

Man, this looks like a classic slow walk down.

 

[Curt Renz]

Man, this looks like a classic slow walk down.

A macro walk down and TSLA is dragged along.

This as US treasury rates steadily march uphill.

 

[oldTAVguy]

So far +20 chairs today.

 

[Mark Alset]

Simulation confirmed. Note PE Ratio.

 

[EVNow]

Any comment on how Tesla will get to multiple new gigafactories?

Looks like Tesla can build 2 gigafactories a year from the cash its making.

 

[EVNow]

Simulation confirmed. Note PE Ratio.

View attachment 865815

And the SP ...

 

[Matias]

I’m contemplating whether to get back in the train. I sold my TSLA shares after the previous split (couple of years ago) as I felt the stock was overvalued.

If (P/E)/G (annualised, not forward looking) falls below 1, I’m back in.

Hopefully, I will soon again be a TSLA owner

 

[petit_bateau]

That's sort of a big miss though, factoring in Forex. You can come up with excuses for every quarter, which I've done in a previous post.

Bottom line, gigantic miss. If Wall Street was off by that much we'd all be ridiculing them for how dumb/corrupt they are, so need to hold it both ways. While it may not be you explicitly who bashes traditional analyst estimates (too lazy to go through individual post history like some vindicitive wackos here), I see a lot of unfair slander thrown at a lot of these analysts. It's a shame the slander that @Troy went through as well. Hasn't he been more right than wrong the past year? Felt like it.

At the end of the day we're all trying to make projections (short or long) to the best of our abilities, and the biases that we may have does not necessarily mean that one person's word is superior to another.

So I hope, moving forward, some respect is shown to everyone (except JPM and Gordon Johnson), about their thoughts. This should be a humbling experience for you, Rob, The Accountant, James Stephenson, etc. who had ridiculously divergent price targets.

Indeed. All of us are analysts. Even the ones who just sit a bunch of monkeys at a set of keyboards, or throwing darts.

I've yet to sit down and look at the full numbers because of my daytime responsibilities. So this is just some comments from th eearnings call transcript and quickly scanning the numbers.

Personally my big errors was on auto GM%. I think GM% was in part driven by raw materials increases which seem to be unwinding from the commentary. I happened to get storage about right by a fluke, but solar installs are a *sugar* show and energy GM% is pants. Solar is a problem, they are doing worse than global industry in that respect.

No explanation whatsoever as to where that auto volume came from and no-one bothered to ask !!. I'm still guessing it came out of Fremont, but that's only because of the very selective data quotes re Berlin and Austin rates. Both are ramping OK, but where did that volume come from ...

Love the comment about the smaller car. Call it the 2/Z. The one everyone outside of USA can fit in their roads and car parks. This is NOT the RoboTaxi.

Aspirational Semi ramp (50k in 2024) higher than my forecast (30k in 2024). Let's see. On 2170.

4680 volume ramping faster than Austin auto line which is good ... not sure about Austin+Berlin not that it matters right now as Berlin not on 4680 yet. So overall sounds like 4680 ramp is in middle of expectation range, neither dire nor great, but going OK.

CT line work ongoing.

Stock buyback ... debt retirals ... Musk sounded tired and quiet to me. There's a lot to do. Prob not just on Tesla ...... who's paying ?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Why does that seem like “an orchestrated short FUD scheme”? I would certainly like it to be, but it strikes me as not just plausible, but likely.

* Musk’s individual financial situation for his portion of the investment is almost certainly in a lesser place than when funding was originally put together for it.
* The general financial situation / investing environment overall for his co-investors is also almost certainly in a far lesser place than months ago.
* The only upside funding-wise is likely from loans, where higher rates may make additional borrowing funds available to close the deal.

It seems highly likely that additional funding parters would be sought to get this deal closed, especially if it avoids the need for additional TSLA share sales or pushing the limits of share-backed-loan facilities. Hopefully either the deal falls apart completely (my “hoped for but not expected” scenario) or additional investors are found to avoid additional TSLA sales (my “expected” scenario), and additional sales are unnecessary. But I don’t see why that particular reporting would be considered “an orchestrated FUD scheme” so firmly, unless you disagree with one of my first two bullet points or you have some strong reason to believe the opposite of that likely-true (IMHO) reporting.

How about a constant narrative for 2-3 weeks now that Elon will have to sell more and the only reason he hasn't yet is because of the earnings trade window?

How about rampant speculation that investors are bailing on Elon even though there's no proof?

Or how about Elon clearly stating after he last sold that the sell was intended as backup if the twitter buyout went through AND his investors bailed on him?

It's just as likely at this point that Elon has free cash to buy TSLA shares as much as he has to sell TSLA shares.

I don't know how you think a random person on CNBC spreading a rumor that Elon is "frantically" contacting investors to for money without showing ANY PROOF of it is anything but fear mongering FUD.

If it was true, he should back it up with something of substance. He didn't. It's FUD.

 

[Cherry Wine]

"T-shirts! Get your T-shirts here!"

 

[WattsHappening]

Hey, TSLA down less than 10x Nasdaq.

Woo hoo!

 

[Stretch2727]

Well I did the only thing I can reasonably do with such a low stock price....transferred more shares from my IRA to my ROTH IRA.

Big tax bill this year.

 

[Todd Burch]

Shocking that a beat on EPS, a very slight miss on Revenue, an extremely positive outlook and earnings call, when the stock is already down 50%, causes a drop of 7.5%.

Oh wait, no it isn't.

Stay strong, longs. The bears can have 2022. This year sucks anyway. The rest of the decade is ours.

 

[woodisgood]

Elon selling (each time it happens) is probably the largest magnitude buy/sell event for this stock, short of the S&P inclusion. Real buying and selling is what makes the stock move. There is nothing more certain than knowing a large sell order or large buy order is going to come in (news or earnings is only a proxy/prediction for whether there will be more buying or selling). Hence all market players will position around such an event, as they did with S&P inclusion.

So until this passes, either with Elon selling or not needing to, the stock will ignore any fundamentals, positive news, etc.

 

[Unpilot]

Shocking that a beat on EPS, a very slight miss on Revenue, an extremely positive outlook and earnings call, when the stock is already down 50%, causes a drop of 7.5%.

Oh wait, no it isn't.

Stay strong, longs. The bears can have 2022. This year sucks anyway. The rest of the decade is ours.

If SP stays this low (or FSM forbid goes lower) I will be interviewing for a Taco Bell drive through customer service technician job.

 

[WattsHappening]

Well I did the only thing I can reasonably do with such a low stock price....transferred more shares from my IRA to my ROTH IRA.

Big tax bill this year.

Love it; that's making lemonade out of lemons!