Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zextraterrestrial]

Replica of another chart on Mathia's Twitter page:
View attachment 872628

As his chart reminded me, as low as it is now, we got a long way to go before we truly hit bottom

but that bottom was when Tesla wasn't cash flow positive. not while Tesla had dominating vehicle sales cash flow world wide.
P/E was way higher at that lower SP too (or not even a P/E yet?)

 

[Mengy]

Every time the stock has a bad day, all I need to do is take my Model Y for a drive and suddenly I'm cheered up and optimistic again. The product is awesome, the financials are great, the growth is super, the future is bright.

The SP might be low now but when macros turn around we'll be way up again. It's just a matter of holding on while the roller coaster plunges down before it launches forward.

 

[navguy12]

In order for the SP to fall down to $100 by the end of Q4 of this year, we would need a PE of 25 to 28 or so, depending on where final Q4 revenues come in at.

Is that possible? In this market, certainly. I don't think its very likely our PE falls from 63 to 28 in a few months, but if the market environment gets much worse very fast I suppose it could happen.

As to what's going on with the TSLA price, yeah it seems out of whack to me. Macro pressures are pushing us down for sure, but the persistent downward pressures on TSLA do seem exaggerated even when compared to macro movements. I can only guess Elon's tweets and Twitter dealings are hurting TSLA, even though they shouldn't have any direct bearing on it.

Maybe (wishful thinking) this is simply when a share buyback process begins. Better to buy back shares when the price is so depressed.

 

[Thekiwi]

The pandemic is mostly in the rear view in most parts of the world now. How quickly we forget, and that is great.
Without the vaccines, I suspect we could be still discussing how many thousands of peoples dying today.

But, here is an example of what it could be like and it’s still a unfathomabe reality in some part of the world:

Video showing 14-year-old convulsing in Covid facility ignites outrage | CNN

As China continues to implement its "zero-Covid" policy, CNN's Selina Wang looks at the effects on ordinary Chinese citizens.

www.cnn.com

Well it’s only in the “rear view mirror” from the perspective that we all have gotten used to living with covid as an everyday risk. Thousands of people are still dying every day from covid in the western world - each death a horrible experience for all involved, but its now viewed by most as a new item on the list of accepted society risks - like deaths from influenza or car crashes - a risk that can now be minimized by vaccines, treatments & sensible behavior.

China is a completely different position (for now), much to the detriment of Tesla. Not only is Tesla harmed from potential factory shutdowns, but also from temporary demand softness due to It’s economy being severely impacted by the covid policy. It’s so hard for the chinese leadership to change without first changing their vaccination strategy, and vast investment in logistics of the health system to cope with relaxed covid restrictions (eg letting covid wash over the country of 1.4 billion people).

Even in a best case scenario, relaxing covid restrictions in china will lead to hundreds of thousands of excess deaths.

This will sound morbid, but for the chinese government, they are probably hoping that the decision to relax covid restrictions - thereby becoming responsible for the deaths - is one they don’t actually have to make, with the current covid outbreak ending up escaping containment measures and spreading far and wide.

This is what happened here in New Zealand, thankfully after we had achieved very high vaccination rates. We were essentially covid free for 18 months until the 2nd half of 2021, but meant our borders were effectively closed (only open to residents/citizens/VIPs with mandatory 2 weeks in quarantine facilities) - and no government wants to be responsible for intentionally letting covid in and killing thousands of people. In the end the decision to open borders back up without quarantine was only done after the Delta variant escaped the quarantine system - after which the closed borders were redundant. Covid deaths in New Zealand is at 2,100 - virtually all from the more mild Delta & Omicron variants, which is approaching 0.05% of the population so far.

0.05% of a highly vaccinated population. That would be ~700,000 dead in China IF they were highly vaccinated with pfizer or similar and had a health care system set up to cope with the huge wave of ICU patients.

More likely with a low vaccination rate, and a crappy vaccine at that, and a health system that can not support a covid wave that Omicron would generate, the death tally would be much higher.

One could argue that for China, keeping the covid zero policy in place until a much better vaccine and/or treatment has been developed is the most politically palatable (but there is no guarantee of course that vaccine or treatment eventuates).

 

[FSDtester#1]

That has worked in the past. But MMs know your holdings, and your credit limit. LEAPS are also at risk for expiring OTM as long as the war and the recession lingers.

Remember the hinged pendulum? If you only buy and hold shares, the MMs can't toss U in the tumble dryer. People who hold LEAPs are at a much greater risk of being pickpocketed b4 the recovery:

Advice: HODL.

Uh oh, the pendulum again... now I have to think of bedtime again!!

 

[zerothis]

That's an astonishing program - for the fleet purchaser, at any rate. I looked further into the HVIP website - here is their list of approved vendors: Eligible Technologies | California HVIP and, frustratingly, Tesla is not (yet, I hope) on the list.

Back to mulling over the possibilities, the fine print shows each such vehicle purchased must stay in California for three years to maintain (ie, not give it back) the incentive*. Jenny does not, however, think that an obstacle, as at the rate that we work, it would take at least that long to get each Motorhome conversion created!

*It's not clear to me that a vehicle would be in violation were it ever to cross the state line at any time. That would appear to be a....ludicrous...restriction. We are, however, talking about California.

It seems HVIP includes every ET, real and imagined, except Tesla Semi. Seems extremely odd.
I would hope Cybertruck would be there as well. And, this would depend on Tesla, commercial variants of Y and X.

 

[Discoducky]

Well, this a promising sight!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590134752077455360

 

[OrthoSurg]

That has worked in the past. But MMs know your holdings, and your credit limit. LEAPS are also at risk for expiring OTM as long as the war and the recession lingers.

Remember the hinged pendulum? If you only buy and hold shares, the MMs can't toss U in the tumble dryer. People who hold LEAPs are at a much greater risk of being pickpocketed b4 the recovery:

Advice: HODL.

Look at what you made me fall on. Tesla should hire these guys for the balance of Optimus.

I am starting to believe more and more not to convert all my shares to LEAPS the way the stock is being pushed down and might linger there for as long the Market makers want. But the longer the stock stays suppressed the bigger the breakout.

 

[navguy12]

So you are saying I didn't do anything wrong by just buying with all the cash I could, never lend a dime from anyone and just HODL my real shares (because everything else would be too complicated for my simple mind)?

You are like me; bought shares with cash; don’t contemplate wanting (not needing) some sort of cash out for at least twelve years.

 

[Gigapress]

Extraordinary Exponential Explosion

Logarithmic charts reveal Tesla's extreme growth compared to other top companies

globaloptimization.substack.com

Comparison of Tesla's exponential growth vs. other leading companies with logarithmic scale and discussion of extrapolation. Thanks @heltok for the suggestion.

Really nice comparisons. I think it would be even more clear what is happening if the graphs were log scale(except for the percent ones). It will be very clear that Tesla is on a path to overtake them when you extrapolate the current growth a few years into the future...

 

[jw934]

In the Institutional Investor’s 51st annual survey (@iimag ) among 3100 analysts & money managers, #Tesla ranked #1 in the Autos & Auto Parts Sector
for :
- best CEO
- best CFO
- best IR program
- best IR team
- best IR professional
- best company board
- best ESG
- best Analyst/investor event

** Tesla was also awarded the Most Honored Company in automotive.

Link: Institutional Investors
Martin Viecha twitter

Source: twitter @ceo_plus_ch

 

[Nocturnal]

Extraordinary Exponential Explosion

Logarithmic charts reveal Tesla's extreme growth compared to other top companies

globaloptimization.substack.com

Comparison of Tesla's exponential growth vs. other leading companies with logarithmic scale and discussion of extrapolation. Thanks @heltok for the suggestion.

If Tesla built some other widget and not "just cars" our PE ratio would have an extra digit right now.

 

[BornToFly]

If Tesla built some other widget and not "just cars" our PE ratio would have an extra digit right now.

They should look into solar panels, solar roofs, a charging network, battery storage (residential and commercial), and software.

I'll give Elon a call.

 

[ZeApelido]

A car almost hit me going down the wrong way of a one-way street and running a stop sign.

An apt analogy for me and my TSLA investments right now.

 

[wipster]

This might make us feel a bit better... not as good as the SP doubling tomorrow, but it might be a harbinger of things to come:

Tesla's Extraordinary Exponential Explosion

Semi-log charts highlight Tesla's extreme growth compared to other top companies

globaloptimization.substack.com

 

[Eugene Ash]

.....
..... so it would seem that Ford's best hope is that the used car market doesn't crater (which would put a huge dent in their main profit center; Ford Finance) and they can continue to sell enough cars to convince the markets to lend them money.
....

Which, the used car market is declining, now, 5th month in a row, loan delinquencies are up, borrowing rates for businesses are up. Rock and a hard place!

 

[Ad Astra]

Elon filed form 4 for 11/4 stock sale.

SEC FORM 4

 

[MrMoo]

Man I knew he had to sell. I was wrong 2 weeks ago on the Friday and poor Borntofly had to eat a hog dot but we were right in the end. I KNEW IT. Sucks that my puts were 2 weeks too late.

 

[phantasms]

Another for 11/7 SEC FORM 4

 

[BornToFly]

Elon filed form 4 for 11/4 stock sale.

SEC FORM 4

Where is my Opra Meme?

You eat Tofu, and You eat Tofu, and You eat Tofu!!!