Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chenkers]

I don't understand what you mean. What was wrong? Are you saying Elon placed Put orders?

Perhaps you could show a reference of that day's total volume, along with the total shares he sold, and any other information in a way that makes what you described more clear?

Thanks

What @BornToFly is saying sounded pretty clear and obvious to me. Below is the chart from Nov 4.

The first part of the trading up until around 10.30-10.50 was normal with a typical Mandatory Morning Dip. Then around 10.50 you can see some bigger red candles show up, followed by extremely strong selling periods across the day. Much of this was Elon selling and smarter hedge funds and traders piggy backing off his selling to drive the share price down. From the Form 4's most of Elon's early sales were around $219.9 onwards, which is the large block from 11.30 to midday.

Elon isn't allowed to trade in TSLA derivatives so any large Put orders coming in would be from people either smart enough to see where it's going or else insider knowledge of Elon's sales. There could also have been some front running happening to lower the price between 10.50 and when Elon started heavy selling.

 

[FSDtester#1]

You were identified as a troll in the Russia/Ukraine thread over a month ago by senior members. Your methods don't work here.

Russia/Ukraine conflict

Raise your hand if you employ 10 or more of those "average families". I do, and I've given out substantial raises to my employees to help them with increased costs of living. You still haven't explained to us how Russia invading Ukraine is the work of the "globalists". Inquiring minds want...

teslamotorsclub.com

Russia/Ukraine conflict

Raise your hand if you employ 10 or more of those "average families". I do, and I've given out substantial raises to my employees to help them with increased costs of living. You still haven't explained to us how Russia invading Ukraine is the work of the "globalists". Inquiring minds want...

teslamotorsclub.com

Where is that ignore button? Haven't had to use it in a bit... @ShareLofty seems worthy of finding it.

 

[MrMoo]

When has Elon ever pumped the stock?

Well is there a point in me pointing it out? The uber bulls will just say that is not true.

Elon Musk pumps Tesla stock with ridiculous $4 trillion target. Is a dump coming next?

Another Tesla Inc. earnings call and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission...

www.marketwatch.com

Tesla (TSLA) Q3: Mixed Quarter, Musk Pumps, Mr. Market Dumps

Tesla's Q3 report was underwhelming, with a slight beat on EPS being overshadowed by misses on revenue and automotive gross margins. Read the earnings analysis.

seekingalpha.com

I saw that as a sign he was going to sell. You can disagree on the pump comment but he literally sold. You can't disagree on that. I was just 1 week too early on my call for that. But it's all moot point. It's done now and I didn't make any money off my call because I was too early on the options and my shares got wrecked.

 

[Congo Line]

I don't understand what you mean. What was wrong? Are you saying Elon placed Put orders?

Perhaps you could show a reference of that day's total volume, along with the total shares he sold, and any other information in a way that makes what you described more clear?

Thanks

If you look at past times that Elon has sold TSLA, those days are almost always heavy volume down days, with little news to explain the price action, and TSLA being much more negative relative to rest of the market. Although 6% may not seem like a large proportion of the shares trading hands, it's a different form of selling because he (his brokers) are selling without as much regard to price. It definitely seems to drag the shares down. Probably also gets amplified by margin calls, plus general fear generated from watching shares tank and clearly getting dumped by someone who appears to know something that we don't.

I remember prior Elon selling days always felt really bad, with much soul-searching and questioning how much of my portfolio is in TSLA. These past few days felt exactly like the prior times, which should have tipped me off that it was another Elon sale.

Maybe someone else knows the answer to your question about the put orders, but I wouldn't put it past Morgan Stanley, Goldman or whoever the brokerages were to screw the market over with some put options on days they know he's selling lots of shares.

 

[new_sneakers]

In the Institutional Investor’s 51st annual survey (@iimag ) among 3100 analysts & money managers, #Tesla ranked #1 in the Autos & Auto Parts Sector
for :
- best CEO
- best CFO
- best IR program
- best IR team
- best IR professional
- best company board
- best ESG
- best Analyst/investor event

** Tesla was also awarded the Most Honored Company in automotive.

Link: Institutional Investors
Martin Viecha twitter

View attachment 872698

Source: twitter @ceo_plus_ch

Martin replied to me(!) on Twitter, when I wondered at the size of other IR teams. He said:

"IR teams are easily 7-8 people, sometimes more
Do more without bloating teams - that's how you get operating leverage"

I really feel that efficiency is in the bones of the company at this point.

 

[PeterJA]

The folks blaming Elon tor the TSLA downtrend and rejoicing that he is likely done selling will likely be disappointed because the macro forces that started the downtrend in September are far from over. I see no evidence that the stock has bottomed yet, although one technical analyst says a temporary bear rally is possible because TSLA is oversold.

 

[Discoducky]

Where is that ignore button? Haven't had to use it in a bit... @ShareLofty seems worthy of finding it.

PSA.

Hover over the screen name, click on the "More Options" button, click "Ignore".

 

[Gigapress]

Well is there a point in me pointing it out? The uber bulls will just say that is not true.

Elon Musk pumps Tesla stock with ridiculous $4 trillion target. Is a dump coming next?

Another Tesla Inc. earnings call and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission...

www.marketwatch.com

Tesla (TSLA) Q3: Mixed Quarter, Musk Pumps, Mr. Market Dumps

Tesla's Q3 report was underwhelming, with a slight beat on EPS being overshadowed by misses on revenue and automotive gross margins. Read the earnings analysis.

seekingalpha.com

I saw that as a sign he was going to sell. You can disagree on the pump comment but he literally sold. You can't disagree on that. I was just 1 week too early on my call for that. But it's all moot point. It's done now and I didn't make any money off my call because I was too early on the options and my shares got wrecked.

A $5T+ valuation could be achieved with something like $200B annual income and 25+ PE ratio.

Tesla aims to make 20 million cars per year by 2030. If net profit per car is $10k, then voila that's $200 billion.

I don't think Elon was quite telling the truth when he said this was the first time he had seen the potential for Tesla to be worth $5T. I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't have some idea of how much income will be rolling in at 20M cars/year. Plus energy. And that's not even counting FSD which would make everything else a rounding error if it actually works for level 5 operation, and he clearly believes it will work.

 

[ElectricIAC]

A $5T+ valuation could be achieved with something like $200B annual income and 25+ PE ratio.

Tesla aims to make 20 million cars per year by 2030. If net profit per car is $10k, then voila that's $200 billion.

I don't think Elon was quite telling the truth when he said this was the first time he had seen the potential for Tesla to be worth $5T. I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't have some idea of how much income will be rolling in at 20M cars/year. Plus energy. And that's not even counting FSD which would make everything else a rounding error if it actually works for level 5 operation, and he clearly believes it will work.

How sustainable is that pace though?

 

[wipster]

Well is there a point in me pointing it out? The uber bulls will just say that is not true.

Elon Musk pumps Tesla stock with ridiculous $4 trillion target. Is a dump coming next?

Another Tesla Inc. earnings call and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission...

www.marketwatch.com

Tesla (TSLA) Q3: Mixed Quarter, Musk Pumps, Mr. Market Dumps

Tesla's Q3 report was underwhelming, with a slight beat on EPS being overshadowed by misses on revenue and automotive gross margins. Read the earnings analysis.

seekingalpha.com

I saw that as a sign he was going to sell. You can disagree on the pump comment but he literally sold. You can't disagree on that. I was just 1 week too early on my call for that. But it's all moot point. It's done now and I didn't make any money off my call because I was too early on the options and my shares got wrecked.

Guess it's a matter of opinion. When I was listening at the time, I didn't take his comments as pumping just making some expected announcements with the possible exception of the $25k car comment and I felt he was pressured into that because they didn't want to osborne future sales.

However I can see in retrospect how people could have taken some of his comments that way. Although I don't remember anyone commenting on him pumping at the time...

 

[FSDtester#1]

PSA.

Hover over the screen name, click on the "More Options" button, click "Ignore".

Done, thank you sir!

 

[Big Time]

What was the number? Do share.

China October exports :54,504?

 

[2daMoon]

If you look at past times that Elon has sold TSLA, those days are almost always heavy volume down days, with little news to explain the price action, and TSLA being much more negative relative to rest of the market. Although 6% may not seem like a large proportion of the shares trading hands, it's a different form of selling because he (his brokers) are selling without as much regard to price. It definitely seems to drag the shares down. Probably also gets amplified by margin calls, plus general fear generated from watching shares tank and clearly getting dumped by someone who appears to know something that we don't.

I remember prior Elon selling days always felt really bad, with much soul-searching and questioning how much of my portfolio is in TSLA. These past few days felt exactly like the prior times, which should have tipped me off that it was another Elon sale.

Maybe someone else knows the answer to your question about the put orders, but I wouldn't put it past Morgan Stanley, Goldman or whoever the brokerages were to screw the market over with some put options on days they know he's selling lots of shares.

I get that, and the previous chart @Chenkers shared was helpful to illustrate the point. But this doesn't make what I wrote wrong.

Granted, the players are gonna play. The market will take the same advantage over an opportunity like that regardless of whether it was Elon or not. The market doesn't know who is trading in the moment.

Selling an average 6.25% of the day's volume over a period equal to 33% of the time the market is open that day appears insignificant.

It just seems like folks are trying to say this was different because it was Elon selling, even though nobody knew this until the filing was made with the SEC today. If that same number of shares were traded in the same way on any other day by an individual or a group of unrelated sellers the reaction by the day traders and market makers would not be different because it wasn't Elon, would it?

All I was saying is that I have no control over what other owners of stock do, and I don't expect to. It is irrational to lash out at Elon for doing this.

Go digging through the charts and look for other instances where there is a downtrend with similar volume over a similar time span on a day where Elon did not report selling. I suspect it won't take long to find, only, we don't get to know for sure who the trader(s) are so we can't express our displeasure over them selling what they own when they wanted to sell it, nor gripe about how the other players reacted to the opportunity it presented to them.

Elon didn't sell just to pee in someone's corn flakes, he did it because it was right for him at the time. Just like any other stock holder can do. I support him in doing this. It is not wrong in any way. It is business. His personal business.

 

[Chenkers]

Selling an average 6.25% of the day's volume over a period equal to 33% of the time the market is open that day appears insignificant.

It just seems like folks are trying to say this was different because it was Elon selling, even though nobody knew this until the filing was made with the SEC today. If that same number of shares were traded in the same way on any other day by an individual or a group of unrelated sellers the reaction by the day traders and market makers would not be different because it wasn't Elon, would it?

All I was saying is that I have no control over what other owners of stock do, and I don't expect to. It is irrational to lash out at Elon for doing this.

Go digging through the charts and look for other instances where there is a downtrend with similar volume over a similar time span on a day where Elon did not report selling. I suspect it won't take long to find, only, we don't get to know for sure who the trader(s) are so we can't express our displeasure over them selling what they own when they wanted to sell it, nor gripe about how the other players reacted to the opportunity it presented to them.

Elon didn't sell just to pee in someone's corn flakes, he did it because it was right for him at the time. Just like any other stock holder can do. I support him in doing this. It is not wrong in any way. It is business. His business.

6.25% of the days volume may appear insignificant on face value but you then have to question what the make-up of the 100% is.

A quick Google search will show that Algo trading currently accounts for around 60-73% (say 67%) of stock market trading volume. You can see it clearly with all the minute ups and downs in trading and especially the trading around key resistance levels. A lot of this Algo trading is back and forth, designed to skim only incremental gains or manage positions and shouldn't move the price much outside of some news or macro driver. So if you take out Algo trading that leaves only 33%, which will be made up of real sellers and buyers. So Elon's selling now becomes 19% of the real selling and buying and because it is relentlessly in the selling direction (19%+ selling vs <14% buying), it drives the share price down, particularly duing these intense selling periods.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So Elon’s officially a liar. Getting really tired of this guy

Could you explain why he is now ‘officialy a liar’?

In April he said he wouldn’t have to sell again, but he did (in August). That is a broken promise, although I doubt he knew that would happen when he made the promise. You could even call it a lie, if he knew there would be further selling. But you weren’t referring to that episode, you were referring to his selling over the last few days.

After April he only said that his (August) sales were to prevent a forced sale in case he would be forced to buy Twitter. So where is the lie?

 

[T@oo]

Could you explain why he is now ‘officialy a liar’?

In April he said he wouldn’t have to sell again, but he did (in August). That is a broken promise, although I doubt he knew that would happen when he made the promise. You could even call it a lie, if he knew there would be further selling. But you weren’t referring to that episode, you were referring to his selling over the last few days.

After April he only said that his (August) sales were to prevent a forced sale in case he would be forced to buy Twitter. So where is the lie?

First in, last out.

He's losing reputation and trust. It shows in the sentiment (even here) and SP.

 

[Cobbler]

So Elon’s officially a liar. Getting really tired of this guy

 

[T@oo]

View attachment 872800View attachment 872799

Straws. Just shows how unf#### dumb this whole T### distractions was right from the start.

 

[deshkart]

It’s pretty amazing that some of ppl here think just because Elon owns the shares, the market is going to pay a premium. There is nothing in finance that says “oh we have to pay a 20% premium just because someone owns this much part of shares”. Teslas market cap will be the same irrespective of whether Elon owns 5% or 95% of all Teslas shares. Market doesn’t care whether Elon owns the shares or his father. Only thing matters is the earnings estimate. As of now, I haven’t seen information that makes me believe that future earnings potential of Tesla has changed.

Market is not emotional like retail investors. “ Oh Elon supports republicans, I will sell my shares “ “ oh Elon told he may not sell but he sold. He’s a liar. I will sell all my shares “. These are all noise in short term. You should be only pissed if Elon doesn’t deliver by the form of performance of Tesla as a company - I havnt seen evidence of that either. If you want to survive in market for long term, learn to get over your emotions. You should understand that Market is emotionless in its pursuit of most efficient capital allocation. Once you get it, you will sleep better at night.

I would be angry if Elon sold billions before Tesla started making profits and brought a Yatch or a huge mansion. Calling Elon liar and other names, is probably naive to market reality at this point in Teslas life. If you are “pissed off” at Elon selling, then you should also be pissed off at all the institutional investors who have been selling TSLA since the news of China demand issues.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

First in, last out.

He's losing reputation and trust. It shows in the sentiment (even here) and SP.

Is Elon out?