Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I’m thinking Elon is being risk adverse with his money here. If he needs this money to keep Twitter a float for years to come over what could be a long recession. Then maybe the best thing to do is to sell now. He does know that Tesla will keep executing over those years but he doesn’t know what will happen to TSLA. I doubt it but it could be suppressed with FUD for a while.

That's a bearish outlook, which means Elon thinks Tsla is overvalued despite the execution he sees clearly into the future. It also makes him the most bearish out of any bull because he thinks even the 170s are too high.

 

[FireMedic]

Who said short term? My point is very much long term damage to brand. When competition is stronger and producing in volume. When moats arent so deep.

You should watch the Farzad video from yesterday. Ross Gerber (whose style I don’t generally care for) makes the point (and I agree) that nobody will be talking about twitter in a month or 2. Gary also agreed with that prediction.

This is temporary; we’ll be on to the next thing soon. It may even be a positive thing…and I plan to be prepared for that eventuality.

 

[Cherry Wine]

“

Or a negative nonfarm payroll print next month.
Once employment goes negative, labor losses
pricing power.

Let's add it to the pile. December 2nd.

 

[Stretch2727]

Fed responded to current CPI report and said terminal rate of 4.5% should be on the table.

Reference?

 

[2daMoon]

That's a bearish outlook, which means Elon thinks Tsla is overvalued despite the execution he sees clearly into the future. It also makes him the most bearish out of any bull because he thinks even the 170s are too high.

Or, maybe he just chose to dip lightly into an abundance of wealth to fund a project rather than become beholden to a bank.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fed responded to current CPI report and said terminal rate of 4.5% should be on the table.

50% of the Core CPI inflation was made up by shelter inflation which is a lagging indicator, once stripped out we actually had a -0.1% inflation, first time since 2020.

And if you look at Seattle shelter information.....both housing and rent........that part of inflation drop will start showing up across the board starting in the next couple of CPI prints.

Seatting rent and housing and come down a lot in the past 2-3 months and the drop % is accelerating (talking 15%+ drops in both)

 

[Singuy]

Reference?

Fed's Harker says favors possible rate hike pause when funds rate hits around 4.5%

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said Thursday the point where the central bank might pause on rate rises could be getting closer.

www.reuters.com

 

[Cherry Wine]

You should watch the Farzad video from yesterday. Ross Gerber (whose style I don’t generally care for) makes the point (and I agree) that nobody will be talking about twitter in a month or 2. Gary also agreed with that prediction.

This is temporary; we’ll be on to the next thing soon. It may even be a positive thing…and I plan to be prepared for that eventuality.

We'll see. I hesitate to pollute this thread with Twitter discussion, but there is a nonzero chance that the company faces a high-profile lawsuit from the federal government in the coming months - a fact I think relevant to this thread because I do think it would create yet another overhang with respect to TSLA (I can already see the endless arguing over whether such an outcome would force yet another TSLA liquidation by Elon to cover the settlement should he lose). (See my post in the Twitter thread here) Aside from that, I think the Twitter noise fading will also require Elon to not break too much stuff while trying to move quickly, and, yes, keep a low profile for a bit. Can he do that? I'm not sure. I'd like to think the recent fervor penetrated his bubble a bit - judging by yesterday, I think that maybe it has.

 

[Singuy]

Or, maybe he just chose to dip lightly into an abundance of wealth to fund a project rather than become beholden to a bank.

Anything is possible, but the question is about timing. Elon sees inflation going down, he should see a market rally of some sort, FSD being released soon, an epic q4, and pretty much everything he said on the conference call. There are plenty of time between now and well into the future for him to dip lightly into his abundance of wealth. Normal people wouldn't do so at 2 year lows.

So I'm hoping this was a forced sale and not an optional sale.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA Upcoming Catalysts:
<snip>

You sound like Phil from Groundhog Day. Reliving the same day, over and over. It's either negative Nancy:

I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life. What would you do if you were stuck in one place, and every day was exactly the same, and nothing that you did mattered?

or positive Phil:

When Chekhov saw the long winter, he saw a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope. Yet we know that winter is just another step in the cycle of life. But standing here among the people of Punxsutawney and basking in the warmth of their hearths and hearts, I couldn't imagine a better fate than a long and lustrous winter.

Be the Phil you want to see.

Choose Wisely!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Anything is possible, but the question is about timing. Elon sees inflation going down, he should see a market rally of some sort, FSD being released soon, an epic q4, and pretty much everything he said on the conference call. There are plenty of time between now and well into the future for him to dip lightly into his abundance of wealth. Normal people wouldn't do so at 2 year lows.

So I'm hoping this was a forced sale and not an optional sale.

The silence on the sale is deafening, as well.

 

[Singuy]

And if you look at Seattle shelter information.....both housing and rent........that part of inflation drop will start showing up across the board starting in the next couple of CPI prints.

Seatting rent and housing and come down a lot in the past 2-3 months and the drop % is accelerating (talking 15%+ drops in both)

Asking people around who are looking for rentals and central FL's rent prices have peaked as well. Orlando having only a -1% drop in pending home sale prices MOM (vs say -19% in places within California) and even we have seen rent prices dropping.

 

[GOVA]

What people dont get about worry about potential brand destruction is it isnt a short term risk, it is a long term risk. 1st it is a risk that may not materialize. 2nd it may be just cut sales say a small percentage each year, but overtime it could compound. Does it make it harder for Tesla to go from 1.4 million sales in 2022 to 2.1 million in 2023? Likely no. What about 2.1 million to 3.2 million in 2024? Maybe a little harder. What about 3.2 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025? Maybe even harder.

While this might be the case, let's not forget that by 2025 or so Tesla's main product might be the Optimus and FSD sold as service and supercharging and... Elon knows what else.

Berlin is still young, so is Texas. Shanghai is growing at impossible rate really. Cybertruck will sell in astronomical numbers. Semi from Tesla has to replace ALL trucks in existence. No worries about Nikola there.

Elon has said several times that Tesla cars will be a minority of Tesla's overall business.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

We'll see. I hesitate to pollute this thread with Twitter discussion, but there is a nonzero chance that the company faces a high-profile lawsuit from the federal government in the coming months - a fact I think relevant to this thread because I do think it would create yet another overhang with respect to TSLA (I can already see the endless arguing over whether such an outcome would force yet another TSLA liquidation by Elon to cover the settlement should he lose). (See my post in the Twitter thread here) Aside from that, I think the Twitter noise fading will also require Elon to not break too much stuff while trying to move quickly, and, yes, keep a low profile for a bit. Can he do that? I'm not sure. I'd like to think the recent fervor penetrated his bubble a bit - judging by yesterday, I think that maybe it has.

Based on what, and for what? Just because some politician flaps his lips to some media talking head, doesn't mean they have any basis for a lawsuit. Now, the most likely one would have been for collaborating/colluding to suppress information from differing viewpoints. But, 1) those days are over 2) the information they were suppressing (and in turn promoting) was at the bidding of gov and 3) it's a private company, there is no promise of free speech. So, what path does the gov have to come at Twitter?

The only other thing they have is the quick layoffs, but paying severance 50% higher than required, plus the nature and potential for harm from disgruntled employees, certainly should help mitigate that.

In the not-distant future, I expect Elon to make significant improvements to Twitter, that they will turn around (are already picking up new users) and will finally make a profit. And achieve his goal of an actual "digital town square". Never bet against Elon Musk. Though I do wish he'd cut back on the twitting for a while.

 

[PeterJA]

...The "FUD" campaign is being propelled by Elon's words and actions, nothing more....

...I assume that everyone on this forum is well aware of the constant media FUD that's been going on from day one...

Brother, you are contradicting yourself.

How about "everyone" give Elon a chance to execute his plans for Twitter and X.com before you amplify the media narrative that it is a "debacle." If you hated Twitter before, or didn't listen to Elon's interviews and Q&A about his plans, just try to reserve judgment for a while. Elon's team at Twitter is changing things at Tesla/SpaceX speed.

SpaceX lost some rockets, but is not a debacle.

 

[Rarity]

Based on what, and for what? Just because some politician flaps his lips to some media talking head, doesn't mean they have any basis for a lawsuit. Now, the most likely one would have been for collaborating/colluding to suppress information from differing viewpoints. But, 1) those days are over 2) the information they were suppressing (and in turn promoting) was at the bidding of gov and 3) it's a private company, there is no promise of free speech. So, what path does the gov have to come at Twitter?

Seems very tenuous, but CFIUS may ask Twitter to curate its equity investors more to non-Chinese/Saudi sources. I would imagine that this would be negotiated, but perhaps Musk feels he needs to sell a bit of TSLA now so that he is not forced to sell in the future.

 

[2daMoon]

Anything is possible, but the question is about timing. Elon sees inflation going down, he should see a market rally of some sort, FSD being released soon, an epic q4, and pretty much everything he said on the conference call. There are plenty of time between now and well into the future for him to dip lightly into his abundance of wealth. Normal people wouldn't do so at 2 year lows.

So I'm hoping this was a forced sale and not an optional sale.

I don't disagree, but Elon has been less concerned with raising the stock price than with the successful growth of the company. His comments about the stock being too high have been explained with his statements about how higher prices impact employees' and retail investors' participation.

Plus, "normal people" don't have plans to save the human race, build permanent colonies on Mars, or teach primates to play mind Pong. So, his motivations are different and his application of resources will be too.

Elon has a good track record with running the companies he owns quite well, and I'm not going to question his business decisions.

It is a hard pill to swallow, and I agree that as an investor we need to keep our focus on the horizon and avoid tripping over the day to day drama.

 

[BriansTesla]

Bought 100 more chairs yesterday. Listened to Elon's Twitter meeting, then Joined Twitter for the first time today. Looking forward to the future!

 

[FireMedic]

The silence on the sale is deafening, as well.

I’ve been thinking a lot about this; Elon is catching a lot of heat for tweeting that he was done selling, and then selling again…

I don’t expect another I’m done selling tweet from Elon. I believe that was the mistake, and it will probably follow his public image for a while.

I also don’t really think that the price he sells shares at reflects his feelings about whether TSLA is correctly valued. He has so much wealth; we all know 10, 20, or even 100 billion $ isn’t really going to affect his lifestyle or ability to effect positive change in the world going forward.

 

[Knightshade]

Anything is possible, but the question is about timing. Elon sees inflation going down, he should see a market rally of some sort, FSD being released soon, an epic q4, and pretty much everything he said on the conference call. There are plenty of time between now and well into the future for him to dip lightly into his abundance of wealth. Normal people wouldn't do so at 2 year lows.

So I'm hoping this was a forced sale and not an optional sale.

If you discount the bridge loan theory, what else could possibly have forced a sale at this time?