Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FSDtester#1]

Well he's blocking me so I can't comment on Twitter

His theory is not valid. Now somebody that he hasn't blocked @Ryan27 go post that in a reply on his site for me

I would but TeslaQ had a senator send a letter and had me banned for saying Tesla makes a fun car to drive and my kids like the fart noises.

 

[betstarship]

The sheer amount of Elon and his team's productivity and disruption is pretty astounding nowadays.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't think it'll take something that long term for Tesla to get the valuation it deserves. I see there being 2 significant re-valuation events for TSLA over the next 5 years.

Because you replied to @Skipdd who said:

I have been thinking it may take further market disruption to occur, e.g., consolidation of auto makers, management shake-up in some legacy providers, and/or some companies ceasing to exist.

it appears you don't think in the next 5 years we will see any:

consolidation of automakers
management shake-up in legacy providers and/or
implosion of existing companies

In my experience, there is often little warning when companies decide to merge, shake-up their management or even sometimes when they implode.

 

[Paul_SF]

*Bloomberg aired right now a piece on Tesla Shanghai cutting output “as soon as this week”. From the same fictional “sources”.

Can’t make this *sugar* up, they are really that desperate! I really wonder what Elon has in store this week for them.

Edit: was Bloomberg, not CNBS

 

[bkp_duke]

CNBS aired right now a piece on Tesla Shanghai cutting output “as soon as this week”. From the same fictional “sources”.

Can’t make this *sugar* up, they are really that desperate! I really wonder what Elon has in store this week for them.

Wonder if it would be source for a lawsuit if they previously acknowledged on-air that Tesla China refuted the claim. CNBS with the Cramer segment stated that Tesla said it was false.

 

[1101011]

I don't think it'll take something that long term for Tesla to get the valuation it deserves. I see there being 2 significant re-valuation events for TSLA over the next 5 years.

The first is the re-evaluation that will be coming in the next 1-2 quarters due to margin expansion and earnings expansion that firmly puts to rest Tesla peak earnings and demand worries. We are on the cusp of FSD revenue recognition along with what I think will be a material increase FSD subscription purchase rates going forward. Especially new orders. Then we have Austin/Berlin reaching mass production. Both seem to be likely to average 5000/week for Q1 which will dramatically increase gross margins due to amortization/depreciation. Lastly, the IRA benefits will go into effect in Q1 which by estimates, will increase Tesla's margins anywhere from 3-6% plus given US demand a massive boost from the consumer EV credit. The effects of the IRA on Tesla's earnings in Q1 will be a shocker to Wall St combined with Tesla's valuation being firmly in value stock territory, will lead to a strong recovery.

The longer term, things will ultimately come to a head when Tesla drops the price of the 3/Y from the luxury category to the mass consumer category thanks to continued cost reduction, 4680 in volume production, FSD being completely autonomous leading to very high adoption rate, possible Robotaxi, Tesla Energy becoming a large port of Tesla's revenue and earnings. This will be the further re-evaluation that coincides with consolidation across the industry in the form of many auto makers going belly up. I think this happens around 2025, possibly as late as 2026

I could also see a 3rd re-evaluation in between these two events where Tesla Energy revenue/earnings becomes a large enough portion of Tesla's overall revenue/earnings that it forces the issue. Maybe something like 20% of revenue/earnings.

I'm with you on this timeline, and in keeping with it have converted my entire IRA account to a Roth IRA, which I cannot touch for five years.

Hopefully by that time there will be full justification for the action.

 

[insaneoctane]

What is disturbing, given how solid the tesla fundamentals are
, given record November production and sales,
and how undervalued the stock is, that a false rumor can have
such a great impact on the stock Price.

Short term traders totally dominate the stock price
and they seem to get away with fake news.

To be fair, in this market, there are still many nervous investors who will react to news. Maybe that is the lesson here...until coins stop falling out of investors pockets when they turn them upside down, they haven't milked it dry. They will rinse and repeat until it stops being profitable or they get caught, and we know they won't get caught.

 

[insaneoctane]

Valuation metrics. Forward PE in the mid 30’s right now. Likely will be in the mid to low 20’s after Q4 earnings. Will likely be in the mid to low teens after Q1 earnings. These shenanigans can only go on for so long until something breaks

Agree 100%. The challenge I have is that every time I convince myself that it can't possibly go any lower, some war breaks out, or Powell opens his mouth, or inflation data spikes, or, Reuters publiishes up some FUD, etc. So, I have no idea just how far/long these criminals can play this game.

 

[Criscmt]

Ee

With IRA, even Canada can be switched to China production starting Jan 23.

(Apologies, if this was discussed at length earlier, haven’t been following the thread much lately)
Is this true? What are the import tariffs from China to Canada?

 

[elasalle]

Ee

(Apologies, if this was discussed at length earlier, haven’t been following the thread much lately)
Is this true? What are the import tariffs from China to Canada?

Not true yet
Just saying IRA would mean US prodution will be for US

I’ll delete post to avoid rumor/confusion

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agree 100%. The challenge I have is that every time I convince myself that it can't possibly go any lower, some war breaks out, or Powell opens his mouth, or inflation data spikes, or, Reuters publiishes up some FUD, etc. So, I have no idea just how far/long these criminals can play this game.

I think you also have to acknowledge that this year has been headwind after headwind after headwind.........it's been damn near nonstop, most of it out of Tesla's control. They would have had 50% delivery growth in the bag easily if China Covid shutdowns didn't disrupt the entire year. It really threw everything off.

The only thing I put on Tesla was Q3. The lack of communication about Q3 being the quarter that would start to see an increase in in-transit vehicles opened the door to demand speculation and bears/short have seized on it hard. It is what it is.

But I look at it through Wall St's eyes who have been waiting a couple years to inflict some pain and make back some of what they were burned for in 2019/2020. The opportunity arose due to a tough year for Tesla, macro environment cratering, Elon's antics, and Tesla's bad communication on Q3 and they sure made the most of their opportunity.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Analyst estimates for Q4:

$1.27 EPS average

For 2023:

$5.64 EPS average

TSLA is at a forward PE of 31, but those earnings are based on estimates that are less than Q4 annualized, meaning analysts think earnings are going to shrink in 2023 vs Q4!

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

See Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Kinda makes sense

 

[hacer]

They had them sign NDAs.

This raises the interesting question: are they also prohibited from buying or selling TSLA? Because right now they possess material non-public information that affects the (near-term) future prospects of Tesla.

 

[MP3Mike]

This raises the interesting question: are they also prohibited from buying or selling TSLA? Because right now they possess material non-public information that affects the (near-term) future prospects of Tesla.

Non-public, yes. But is it material? Didn't Tesla make people sign an NDA even for the Fremont factory tour back when any owner could schedule one? It didn't require any trading restrictions.

 

[elasalle]

Analyst estimates for Q4:

$1.27 EPS average

For 2023:

$5.64 EPS average

TSLA is at a forward PE of 31, but those earnings are based on estimates that are less than Q4 annualized, meaning analysts think earnings are going to shrink in 2023 vs Q4!

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

See Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.

finance.yahoo.com

2023 a lot of people (IRational Analysts) are gonna get Cyber (D)ucked and they aren't even SEMI aware

 

[Stretch2727]

View attachment 881925


Troy's Nov 29th projections (in twitter)for Q4 Shanghai is 219K.
The wholesale numbers in chart above for Oct and Nov are 71K and 100K.
So in order to meet 219K, Shanghai needs to do another ~ 50K in Dec? Do I have this correct? Also what is weekly Shanghai project output -- like 22K?
(It's seems Nov's 100K means Tesla is ahead of schedule ... If Prod is cut 20%, we still have 80K for Dec and total would be 250K?) thoughts??

I think you are confusing his delivery forecast with his production forecast. The production forecast was 263K. He was assuming a 40K+ build up in inventory to further smooth the wave which many of us thought was too high.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Non-public, yes. But is it material? Didn't Tesla make people sign an NDA even for the Fremont factory tour back when any owner could schedule one? It didn't require any trading restrictions.

Quite right. Nothing Tesla can or can’t do with the Semi manufacturing line is going to materially affect Tesla revenues numbers in the next, say, six months. People on this forum can get very wrapped up in dissecting minute information, and while it is interesting, it certainly isn’t a near term needle mover. And past near term, no one can predict what Tesla will do or not do.

 

[hacer]

How does drawing from the battery help? Negative torque (opposing motion) is regen.
...

Well, theoretically you could spin the wheels in the opposite direction transferring the heat to the sliding friction on the tires against the road! Probably not a good idea for stability though. Anything short of that is just regen.

 

[PeterJA]

Troy talks about wait times decreasing for the LR and shows the wait time for the RWD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599832997540564992

Troy apparently didn't watch this video. Sasha explains why decreasing order wait times do not indicate decreasing demand.

Spoiler: Because Tesla is producing more cars for inventory (i.e., sale without waiting), which indicates more demand, not less, and stimulates even more demand from folks who don't like to wait.