If you're going to accuse someone of lying, then provide evidence for the allegation. If you have no evidence, then why not give your fellow humans the benefit of the doubt with respect to malice vs. mistakes?
"FIVE-YEAR delay"? The Semi reveal was in Nov 2017 and the original estimated time for initial deliveries was 2019. So that's a three year delay. In between then and now, there have been major unexpected problems including Model 3 Production Hell, COVID, Supply Chain Hell, and surprisingly strong demand for 3 & Y that have sucked up all available resources. I would imagine Tesla has probably been in communication with Semi reservation holders in the meantime explaining the delays.
People challenge Elon's decisions all the time and he openly welcomes it. He is an actual scientist who fully embraces the philosophy of empiricism and striving to become less wrong over time via humility, open-mindedness, and careful observation and data collection. That is one of the main reasons why I'm invested, because that's both extremely important and extremely uncommon amongst senior managers in general in the corporate world. I can't find the video clip anymore, but I remember that Sandy Munro recounted an experience last year with sitting in on a SpaceX design review meeting in which Elon said they should do something and immediately another engineer directly contradicted him like "C'mon Elon, that won't work for XYZ reasons" and Elon was like "Oh, ok, what else have we got?" Sandy said he was shocked to witness that, because no other C-suite executive he'd ever had the displeasure of sitting with in a meeting would've responded positively to being called out like that. In my experience at Boeing and a previous company it was the same. We wasted so much time tiptoeing around executive egos and doing stuff we knew was a dead end because no one could just bluntly tell them why something wouldn't work and actually get anywhere with it. Normally executives are more interested in having subordinates stroking their egos and in maintaining an image of infallibility.
Also, what is your rationale for how a PR department would accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy? That's the only criterion that matters. It seems like Martin Viecha is doing a decent-enough job, so he literally is serving as the ONE PERSON PR department you think we don't have.
Nice guess. Do you have data you can show us to demonstrate how you reached this conclusion?
I just checked and I see that the stock prices of all of the following have hit 1.5 to 2-year lows at some point in Q2 and in Q4, with most hitting extreme lows in the middle of October:
- Microsoft
- Alphabet
- Amazon
- TSMC
- Meta
- NVIDIA
- Tencent
- Samsung
- Alibaba
- ASML
- Broadcom
- Oracle
- Cisco
- Texas Instruments
- Adobe
- Tata
- Netflix
- Qualcomm
- Salesforce
- SAP
- AMD
- Intel
- Meituan
- PinDuoDuo
- Toyota
- Volkswagen
- Mercedes-Benz
- Ford
- Honda
- BMW
- GM
- Stellantis
- Hyundai
- Nissan
- BYD
- Kia
- Renault*
- Nio
- Li Auto
- Great Wall Motors
- Suzuki*
- Geely
- SAIC
- Changan*
- Ferrari
- Rivian
- Lucid
- Fisker
*Renault, Suzuki and Changan hit 2-year lows in Q2 but not Q4. Suzuki and Changan did drop in October however, still following the overall group trend.
I see that this list includes (with the exception of Apple and IBM) all of the world's most valued software/electronics companies and all of the world's automotive companies.
It's really quite unfortunate that one man has the power to unleash this much destruction, not only on his own company's stock but also the stocks in his business sectors as well as the
entire stock market. Why can't he just be normal? This is all his fault and I'm very angry at him for doing this. /s
It's been a month since I last updated these charts, but they clearly show the tight coupling between TSLA and the S&P 500. The relationship with the NASDAQ looks similar but slightly weaker.
View attachment 882120
View attachment 882121
As shown below, there clearly has been some decoupling in Q4 so far, starting on Oct 3rd, which was the first trading day of Q4 and also the Monday after the "disappointing" P&D numbers came out. To reiterate, the auto and tech sectors in general had really rough Octobers in the stock market, so TSLA was not especially unique.
The real nonsense mainly occurred in the beginning of November, and nothing seems to have pulled TSLA back up since then.
View attachment 882130
There is a convenient, emotionally salient explanation for this drop starting November 4th that maybe some people would like to discuss further in the Twitter
thread. There are also other possible factors we could identify, like:
- The intensifying China-related fears regarding demand and potential COVID disruptions, in the aftermath of low October wholesale numbers being published, growing numbers of Omicron cases nationwide, new government lockdowns in some areas including Shanghai, and growing social unrest unprecedented in the entire post-Tiananmen Square era
- Elon selling 20M shares that week, plus market response to that news when the Form 4s later came out
- Elon saying in the Ron Baron interview that week, "...many times I've recommended people don't invest in Tesla and I've said our stock is too high, but then people just ignore me and keep buying the stock for some reason" and people misunderstanding what he was intending to communicate
- A major ramp-up of both the Tesla FUD onslaught and the prevalence of trolls appearing in investment discussion boards such as this one
- Increasing short interest including possible naked short-selling by market makers
- Lots of people getting margin calls
Without more information that we'll probably never be able to obtain, it's basically impossible to reach any strong conclusion without speculation. Let's give it more time and see how it plays out. Q4 P&D numbers are just four weeks away.
