Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FastCompany]

+42million shares traded in the first 90 minutes today. Wow!

 

[keydiver]

Elon on Lucid. Not too much interpretation needed here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601130333159624704

Slightly OT: Reading some of the comments of that Tweet, I saw one person mention that Lucid was marketing themselves as EV v2.0. That matches with the comments I heard from the previous owner of my 2016.5 Model S 90D, who had just bought a Lucid Air. He said he "wanted to see what it was like to drive a second generation EV." People just don't understand that Tesla has continued to refine and improve their product, so the Model S you buy today is so much better than 2016. So, they easily fall prey to Rawlinson's boasting sales pitch. To me, it has always been quite evident that Rawlinson's real goal has been to out-Elon Elon, which I think has been a big, and costly, distraction, which is going to lead to their eventual bankruptcy.

 

[thx1139]

But Lucid will be fine, because somebody's dentist is buying one instead of a Tesla - Elon & Twitter.

Yeah that is my dentist who I worked on for 7 years to get a Tesla.

 

[EVMeister]

Yeah that is my dentist who I worked on for 7 years to get a Tesla.

What were you disagreeing with in my post? That Lucid will be fine or... ?

 

[StealthP3D]

This is ugly. Hope they haven’t realized to much of that FSD money yet. I wonder how big the bill will be if they have to return all the FSD money.

Tesla says its self-driving technology may be a 'failure' — but not fraud

In a class-action lawsuit, customers say they were duped by Tesla's $15,000 Full Self-Driving feature. Company lawyers say failure isn't fraud.

www.latimes.com

Tesla would never have to return ALL of the FSD money since some of it is for features that have already been delivered and Tesla has not recognized the revenue for features that are not mature enough for wide release. I hope such a lawsuit is not successful, but I cannot say it doesn't have a certain amount of merit since a few of the cars that have been marketed with this (future) capability are over 6 years old. If the lawsuit wins, I suspect there will be an appeal to a higher court which may provide Tesla enough time to get it fully working because US courts tend to move slow.

I estimate that fewer than 10% of Tesla's total fleet were sold with FSD and much of that revenue has not even been recognized.

 

[DriveMe]

Better to hit the 50% growth targets for production for the year and then do retooling at the beginning of 2023 rather than during crunch time at the end of the year. They said what 6 weeks ago they expect to hit 50% target and just under for deliveries. Do that then make changes.

What's the typical production-to-delivery time in China?

 

[wipster]

The Reuters report specifically says Dec 25th to Jan 1st

LOL... Reuters, that bastion of accuracy...!

 

[AudubonB]

Elon on Lucid. Not too much interpretation needed here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601130333159624704

Correct, not much interpretation, but perhaps some deliberation.

Were you or I or the fellow behind that tree so to proclaim, then, at the very most, anyone else ever would think or respond would be “Well, that’s like your opinion, man.”

BUT, given who Mr Musk is, his own experience in teetering on the brink, the megateraphone he commands, I cannot believe I am the only one to think that “unseemly” is the gentlest opprobrium such a statement deserves. The litigious out there could have other thoughts.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Back into the positive beta regime. Me likey.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Did the manipulators take Friday off?

 

[jabloomf1230]

Did the manipulators take Friday off?

I'll speculate that the buying has something to do with the Tom Hzu rumors swirling around Tesla.

 

[UncaNed]

The analogy has limits, however appealing...
The pain is very, very real.
I recall from ancient studies (before Elon was born) that much physical disease has psychosomatic origin but still is actual physical disease.
Dealing in derivatives or even margin borrowing does have a quite precise physical analogue in that just like Spice, amphetamines, or crack cocaine, when first 'experimenting' the instant gratification is hugely addictive.
That addiction makes otherwise highly intelligent and well educated people to indulge more and more. Just like the physical addiction the intellectual addiction grows and becomes stronger.
That addiction makes people continue to indulge the addiction despite obvious and irrefutable evidence of the potentially catastrophic consequences.
If all these cases the most intellectually capable addicts generate complex and elegant 'proofs', some of which even result in Nobel Prizes. Especially for those and for highly capable physicians who succumb to drug addiction, they are fully aware of the risks they assume. They then generate elaborate justifications...after which they succumb to entirely self-destructive behavior.

It is very sad to read posts here and elsewhere. Very often people here self-report their dismay about their own errors, but many suggest doubling down on the very source of their dismay. That is addiction, to be frank.

Numerous times in the past years several people have repeatedly warned about this. Of those I personally know, we all once were 'only chipping'. Several of those studied statistical market and individual security prediction methods. at least two of unswore guided by one or more of those giants of Nobel fame.

No matter the tools, one basic problem never leaves. That is known as 'boundary conditions'. What is really means in plain language is that a model built on a given set of data is valid ONLY when actual use is within the identical characteristics as the sample data set.

Think about that, please. The future is never exactly like the past. Some changes are small, some large. Never, ever is everything the same. Any of us can make a large list of present events that represent discontinuous change. That means, to be precise, that consumer speculation in securities markets cannot be and will not be, long term successful, but...

As most of us already know the market manipulations and the of individual securities are fomented n large part by very large market makers and their allies. Those people are exactly analogous to drug dealers, EXACTLY.

Those of us who still imagine otherwise are begging for stock buybacks and other related pleas for somebody, anybody, to give them a 'fix'. Here we have otherwise rational people asking Tesla to join in the foolish effort to help 'get them well' not knowing nor caring that doing so will not work.

Worst of all those 'drug dealers' are now classified as 'investors' by the US SEC. Further, in past periods of great excess, almost the entire US securities industry was reorganized to make them self-regulating. The regulations designed to keep the Great Depression from happening again has been dismantled.

Now just think about how wise it is to attempt to outsmart 'the house' when 'the house' has no effective restrictions at all. Even where there seem to be limits, the enforcers are the perpetrators themselves. The 'Madoff Rule' is just a hint.

I know that the already addicted among us will not stop. They'll continue to have endless charts and graphs, plus copious raw data. All of that will describe the past, and allege that the past predicts the future. It does NOT. Knowing the past is incredibly valuable, only insofar as we can learn from history enough to avoid making the identical mistakes again.

I hope Tesla does not succumb to pressure and make share buybacks. If any of a dozen quite plausible events takes place Tesla will suddenly need huge amounts of cash. Wisely they have remembered what happened in 2013, 2016, 2018. What conceivable justification can there be to dissipate the very strength that supports all those high-risk, high-reward developments.

Throwing away financial strength will inhibit things like; octovalve, Gigacastings, Dojo, FSD, 4680, Cybertruck and so on. Each of those and many more to come can only happen successfully when can reserves are more than normally large and ambitions to continue innovation can be indulged without recourse to skeptical securities industry.

Some of you claim I'm anti-Elon anti-Tesla. The opposite is true. I want the success and innovation to continue unabated.

Note: For the record, at the moment my TSLA portfolio is up >800%. It would be even higher had I not bought so much more in 2020. I will not sell even one share.

I see much of myself in your post. But I think I'm capable of stepping back and taking a longer view, seeing the forest and the trees, evaluating calculated risks, and adding some extra risk mitigation.

And perhaps my zero knowledge of Technical Analysis might be my best friend. as far as my TSLA account values have dropped from their highs, I'm still doing amazingly well overall, mostly thanks to what I've learned on this forum over the last 6 years.

 

[AndrewZ]

I'll speculate that the buying has something to do with the Tom Hzu rumors swirling around Tesla.

I imagine people watching options will say it’s short-covering

 

[2daMoon]

Did the manipulators take Friday off?

You do know they swing both ways and manipulate going up as well, right?

 

[scaesare]

Lucid salesmen trying to close the deal on a reluctant customer are like a bulldog that has grabbed your leg and won't let go.

But don't worry, Mr. Rawlings will assure you with his soothing British accent, this is a very gentlemanly and sophisticated bulldog with the finest pedigree and having attended the most prestigious schools and groomed by world-class professional dog groomers. His teeth have been carefully ground to a smooth shape designed to not tear the finest wool summer slacks and, if you look carefully, you will note his collar is trimmed in sterling silver with green peridot accents applied judiciously and harmoniously around the finely polished black onyx from Madagascar.

Go ahead, reach down and scratch him behind the ears. This is his cue to let go and become friendly. You will notice his collar is engraved with the contact info for closing the deal. Welcome back into the fold of that rare person who is worthy and sophisticated enough to own only the finest automotive technology ever offered.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yeah that is my dentist who I worked on for 7 years to get a Tesla.

Ok, so we can blame you. Go it. /s

 

[AudubonB]

Yeah that is my dentist who I worked on for 7 years to get a Tesla.

Yikes - that means he worked on you for at least that long, too

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla would never have to return ALL of the FSD money since some of it is for features that have already been delivered and Tesla has not recognized the revenue for features that are not mature enough for wide release. I hope such a lawsuit is not successful, but I cannot say it doesn't have a certain amount of merit since a few of the cars that have been marketed with this (future) capability are over 6 years old. If the lawsuit wins, I suspect there will be an appeal to a higher court which may provide Tesla enough time to get it fully working because US courts tend to move slow.

I estimate that fewer than 10% of Tesla's total fleet were sold with FSD and much of that revenue has not even been recognized.

Thanks for the info and explanation. . .

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No clue what is going on with TSLA’s volume so far today. At 55 million and it’s only 2 and a half hours in

 

[SOULPEDL]

No clue what is going on with TSLA’s volume so far today. At 55 million and it’s only 2 and a half hours in

This has doubled in volume since my earlier posting just 1 hr ago. Some folks hell bent on 180 today.