Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I hope Tesla does not succumb to pressure and make share buybacks. If any of a dozen quite plausible events takes place Tesla will suddenly need huge amounts of cash. Wisely they have remembered what happened in 2013, 2016, 2018. What conceivable justification can there be to dissipate the very strength that supports all those high-risk, high-reward developments.

I don't think it's very risky at all for Tesla to hold a moderate number of TSLA treasury shares. It's certainly better than holding excess cash during periods of high inflation. Tesla already has a roadmap for its capital needs over the next few years. This is a known to them, but an unknown to us. I think this is why some outsiders hesitate, but remember that the insiders have vastly better understanding of the company's needs and plans.

TSLA shares in the treasury are also almost as good as cash, certainly highly liquid with the typical daily volume. If need be, Tesla can easily convert treasury shares back to cash, while if the need doesn't arise, then those shares likely appreciate far more than their cash-equivalent today.

The Board will make the right call, I'm sure of it. I just don't expect to be able to guess better from outside than they will do from inside the tent. I'm fine with that, that's why I hired them.

 

[Krugerrand]

My random Friday thoughts:

The (denied) rumor about a China shutdown has achieved its goal - we are all bending over backwards trying to find a way / point of view in which it might be true - and in so doing, are losing our focus on the ball. Well done Reuters

At times like this I wish we could have a televised team debate between TSLA bulls and TSLAQ.
My dream debate team:
@Gigapress as the main topic introducer + bringer of evidence + good cop + positive voice
@Krugerrand as the bad cop + enforcer + primary poker of holes in opposing point of view
@Knightshade for historical fact checks with a debate-appropriate edge
@The Accountant could perhaps referee and math check, conclusions would be unimpeachable
Moderators would act as relevance filters for arguments - no "whataboutism" permitted, and no mention of the 'other' T word
Most of the rest of us TMCers as Greek Chorus or possibly old-school melodrama audience (we could bring rotten tomatoes)
Unlikely to ever happen ... we all can dream, I guess...

I have a few minor requests:

@Gigapress - If I could tell him to shut up when he exceeds a paragraph count of, oh, say 14. Then I could work with him.

@Knightshade - I request his chair be electrified using the latest Tesla battery technology, and that I’m in charge of the controls.

@The Accountant - I ask that he be dressed as a Pikachu of his choosing and may only speak using rorschach cards.

I’m not opposed to rotten tomatoes or other vegetation as a means for which the audience may express itself, but I insist on a pair of dueling pistols and a not random draw of participants (done by yours truly, of course) starting with a morning break matchup of @Unpilot vs @ZeApelido.

And finally, I request that admittance cost to this event of the decade should be 4 TSLA shares per attendee to be equally divided amongst the panel.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I have a few minor requests:

@Gigapress - If I could tell him to shut up when he exceeds a paragraph count of, oh, say 14. Then I could work with him.

@Knightshade - I request his chair be electrified using the latest Tesla battery technology, and that I’m in charge of the controls.

@The Accountant - I ask that he be dressed as a Pikachu of his choosing and may only speak using rorschach cards.

I’m not opposed to rotten tomatoes or other vegetation as a means for which the audience may express itself, but I insist on a pair of dueling pistols and a not random draw of participants (done by yours truly, of course) starting with a morning break matchup of @Unpilot vs @ZeApelido.

And finally, I request that admittance cost to this event of the decade should be 4 TSLA shares per attendee to be equally divided amongst the panel.

Can we lock in the admittance cost when $TSLA hits Chicken Fart's target of $140?

btw.... /s

 

[cliff harris]

TBH if Tesla have some fancy-pants new battery chemistry that could push the model Y range to 400 miles, I would rather that...
...they didn't.
There really is no need in Europe for most people, for a 400 mile range car. We all got used to that sort of range because gas stations were not everywhere, and filling up was a pain. IN fact, most EV drivers with a few years under their belt realize that unless they are travelling salespeople, or live in Texas...a 220 mile range is just dandy. In the UK, you can cover a big chunk of the country with that range In mainland Europe, you can probably visit another one!

So I would rather they used any new chemistry to give us a much cheaper model 3 or Y. The demand for £50k cars is nice...but the demand for £30k cars ia way, way bigger. I know a bunch of people who would jump at an 'entry level' model 3 if they can get the price way down.

People on this forum are investors, we are not average income, or average wealth. Its easy to forget that many people cant afford ANY car, and a lot can only afford a beaten up 2nd hand car. Even the market for ANY new car is a wealthy chunk of the population.

Tesla really need to get the entry level model at a lower price. They will still make a killing on subscriptions, FSD and supercharger markup in the long run (plus those entry level buyers might be able to stretch to a higher perofrmance model later).

Right now, for people who live in a city in Europe, its a hard sell to get them to buy a model 3 instead of a Nissan Leaf.

 

[nativewolf]

Maybe if I could get a couple of those new Semi things and a CT? Well we bought a Ford Lightning as the CT is just too late. The heavy equipment uses about 100 gallons a day. The trucks more, weather impacts things a lot so it bumps all over. Does make one study the gas stations prices (and we only buy diesel so I just glance at the gas to see what the delta is this week). The shortage of diesel is really causing a lot of the inflation. Historically about 20-30 cents a gallon more now 1.30-1.50 a gallon more. That's a ..well lets say 30% increase in fuel costs of shipping, so shipping rates moved up by 25% this year. That hit everything. Europe relies on diesel more than us and the trade between countries was for the US and Russia to send excess diesel to Europe and they exported gas. Well now we export diesel, lots of it but don't need as much gas as EU can supply.

Refineries in China are pumping up diesel exports from cheap russian oil. Crazy world. In a year I hope that's all washed through and diesel prices collapse back to the norm.

Then if the Semi comes along...It eats an amazing amount of our nations diesel production. We produce & use about 60,000,000,00 (60 billion) gallons we export about 10. Each semi could cut about 100 gallons a day (keeping math simple). in 2024 we produce 50k Semis: 50k*100*250 (days a year) = over a billion gallons. That's a just ballparking it. But for each years production to remove 2% of our total diesel consumption well...that moves the needle. In 3 years (2027/8) it would mean the Ukraine/russia war would not move the price of diesel. This is why, in my view, russia attacked when they did. When their production mattered. You'll not have EV heavy equipment for years yet, just rarely appropriate but in 12 years as long as the other truck makers follow we'll see diesel sales at maybe a half of where they are today. Every year of Semi production should remove an ever increasing percentage of our national consumption, in 12 years the annual semi production would remove 4% of the nations consumption. As the overall consumption falls even a relatively niche product like the Semi can have tremendous outsize impacts on the environment and the economy. CAVEAT- the numbers are just meant to show trends. THEY ARE NOT CORRECT but directionally appropriate for illustration.

Love Pilot Travel Centers of America...they are all facing an existential moment. If you care to short over 10 years that's a very vulnerable market. I look at Cummins and I see a great long term short. Short too early and it gets expensive. A short nonetheless.

I have a few minor requests:

@Gigapress - If I could tell him to shut up when he exceeds a paragraph count of, oh, say 14. Then I could work with him.

@Knightshade - I request his chair be electrified using the latest Tesla battery technology, and that I’m in charge of the controls.

@The Accountant - I ask that he be dressed as a Pikachu of his choosing and may only speak using rorschach cards.

I’m not opposed to rotten tomatoes or other vegetation as a means for which the audience may express itself, but I insist on a pair of dueling pistols and a not random draw of participants (done by yours truly, of course) starting with a morning break matchup of @Unpilot vs @ZeApelido.

And finally, I request that admittance cost to this event of the decade should be 4 TSLA shares per attendee to be equally divided amongst the panel.

I'm ok with all of that but the equal splitting of shares. I'd like to see a winner take all brawl.

 

[StapleGun]

I do not recognize this unusual price action.

I think there's some sort of bug in Google's stock ticker. The line that goes down is pointing a different direction, and it's got a weird hue to it today.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm ok with all of that but the equal splitting of shares. I'd like to see a winner take all brawl.

I mean, sure. Ok. It’d be like watching Portugal play Switzerland, but whatever. Candy and babies. Candy and babies.

 

[DriveMe]

I was trying to make sense of all those December price discounts both in the US and in China, and potential Tesla factory shutdowns at the end of the year...

I think the explanation is simple: Tesla is about to make some significant hardware changes in January, perhaps release the Autopilot HW4 with its new sensor suite, so it needs to get rid of all December inventory and to do some retooling!

 

[scaesare]

I have a few minor requests:

@Gigapress - If I could tell him to shut up when he exceeds a paragraph count of, oh, say 14. Then I could work with him.

@Knightshade - I request his chair be electrified using the latest Tesla battery technology, and that I’m in charge of the controls.

@The Accountant - I ask that he be dressed as a Pikachu of his choosing and may only speak using rorschach cards.

I’m not opposed to rotten tomatoes or other vegetation as a means for which the audience may express itself, but I insist on a pair of dueling pistols and a not random draw of participants (done by yours truly, of course) starting with a morning break matchup of @Unpilot vs @ZeApelido.

And finally, I request that admittance cost to this event of the decade should be 4 TSLA shares per attendee to be equally divided amongst the panel.

I was hoping for Court Jester...

 

[wipster]

Blimey, I thought you had me on ignore

That's funny @Max Plaid!

Damn I love this board... most of the time ,;-)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, all those 180 strike Call holders have pushed themselves relentlessly to the front of the queue:



Now let's see how much buying interest appears as those call options are closed.

Cheers!

 

[GOVA]

Wow. It is rare to give 2 loves on one page.

Bravo and thank you @unk45 and @nativewolf

 

[StealthP3D]

Well we complain you can't get anyone on the phone at Tesla.

Lucid doing everything they can to reverse order cancellations [Update]

Lucid Motors doing everything they can to keep customers from cancelling their reservations for the Lucid Air luxury electric sedan. With only 3,687 cars produced this year and a declining number of reservations, Lucid is […]

driveteslacanada.ca

The purpose of the call is to save the order. However, if that fails, the case owner must attempt to contact the customer three more times in the next three days.

If that fails, the case is referred to a manager, who initiates contact with the customer within 24 hours. The manager makes five attempts in five days to reach the buyer.

...it continues.

Lucid salesmen trying to close the deal on a reluctant customer are like a bulldog that has grabbed your leg and won't let go.

But don't worry, Mr. Rawlings will assure you with his soothing British accent, this is a very gentlemanly and sophisticated bulldog with the finest pedigree and having attended the most prestigious schools and groomed by world-class professional dog groomers. His teeth have been carefully ground to a smooth shape designed to not tear the finest wool summer slacks and, if you look carefully, you will note his collar is trimmed in sterling silver with green peridot accents applied judiciously and harmoniously around the finely polished black onyx from Madagascar.

Go ahead, reach down and scratch him behind the ears. This is his cue to let go and become friendly. You will notice his collar is engraved with the contact info for closing the deal. Welcome back into the fold of that rare person who is worthy and sophisticated enough to own only the finest automotive technology ever offered.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Lucid salesmen trying to close the deal on a reluctant customer are like a bulldog that has grabbed your leg and won't let go.

But don't worry, Mr. Rawlings will assure you with his soothing British accent, this is a very gentlemanly and sophisticated bulldog with the finest pedigree and having attended the most prestigious schools and groomed by world-class professional dog groomers. His teeth have been carefully ground to a smooth shape designed to not tear the finest wool summer slacks and, if you look carefully, you will note his collar is trimmed in sterling silver with green peridot accents applied judiciously and harmoniously around the finely polished black onyx from Madagascar.

Go ahead, reach down and scratch him behind the ears. This is his cue to let go and become friendly. You will notice his collar is engraved with the contact info for closing the deal. Welcome back into the fold of that rare person who is worthy and sophisticated enough to own only the finest automotive technology ever offered.

finely polished black onyx from Madagascar - It is actually pronounced Mad at gas car

 

[EVMeister]

But Lucid will be fine, because somebody's dentist is buying one instead of a Tesla - Elon & Twitter.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yup early model S had lots of teething issues which resulted in cancelation. The exact same is happening with Lucid right now as the forum is flooded with electrical, software and quality issues.

Difference is Tesla was bleeding 30M a quarter, not 800M.

The other difference was that in 2013 there were no other electric premium sedans with mature technology available. It was the Tesla Model S or a gasoline powered car. Now EV buyers have a choice before they spend their money on a low-volume vehicle with unproven technology and a high price.

 

[Gigapress]

More likely reading Chinese New Year as Gregorian New Year because Tesla normally shuts down for Chinese New Year.

The Reuters report specifically says Dec 25th to Jan 1st

 

[elasalle]

Lucid salesmen trying to close the deal on a reluctant customer are like a bulldog that has grabbed your leg and won't let go.

But don't worry, Mr. Rawlings will assure you with his soothing British accent, this is a very gentlemanly and sophisticated bulldog with the finest pedigree and having attended the most prestigious schools and groomed by world-class professional dog groomers. His teeth have been carefully ground to a smooth shape designed to not tear the finest wool summer slacks and, if you look carefully, you will note his collar is trimmed in sterling silver with green peridot accents applied judiciously and harmoniously around the finely polished black onyx from Madagascar.

Go ahead, reach down and scratch him behind the ears. This is his cue to let go and become friendly. You will notice his collar is engraved with the contact info for closing the deal. Welcome back into the fold of that rare person who is worthy and sophisticated enough to own only the finest automotive technology ever offered.

Bulldog how British

 

[SOULPEDL]

Well, all those 180 strike Call holders have pushed themselves relentlessly to the front of the queue:

View attachment 883052

Now let's see how much buying interest appears as those call options are closed.

Cheers!

Correct. I finally figured out what you meant.
Any more clues? Love them.

 

[thx1139]

I was trying to make sense of all those December price discounts both in the US and in China, and potential Tesla factory shutdowns at the end of the year...

I think the explanation is simple: Tesla is about to make some significant hardware changes in January, perhaps release the Autopilot HW4 with its new sensor suite, so it needs to get rid of all December inventory and to do some retooling!

Better to hit the 50% growth targets for production for the year and then do retooling at the beginning of 2023 rather than during crunch time at the end of the year. They said what 6 weeks ago they expect to hit 50% target and just under for deliveries. Do that then make changes.