Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

Okay, here ya go...

TSLA is Black,
AMZN is Green,
NVDA is Blue

View attachment 884677​

What was your point, exactly?

Was it that Elon's purchase and social media messages have affected all of those you mentioned very similarly? Have you considered it might not have anything to do with Elon buying some other company at all?

AMZN financials are disgustingly bad.
NVDA EPS has gone down 4 quarters in a row.

If TSLA was posting disastrous numbers we wouldnt be complaining.

 

[Unpilot]

"Always look on the bright side of life"

View attachment 884663

It's up .27 now....

 

[2daMoon]

I think he is saying that not only will twitter be a great platform to advertise for Tesla but he will be buying Tesla stock using twitter's profits when the day happens.

Let that sink in...

 

[BornToFly]

Okay, here ya go...

TSLA is Black,
AMZN is Green,
NVDA is Blue

View attachment 884677​

What was your point, exactly?

Was it that Elon's purchase and social media messages have affected all of those you mentioned very similarly? Have you considered it might not have anything to do with Elon buying some other company at all?

Yes, look at the last two weeks or so. That's when Elon went off the rails.

And TSLA should be down MUCH less than the other two based on things like PEG. The fact that we are the same, or actually lower, is really bad. If AMZN, with it's crappy profits and single digit growth is down 46%, TSLA should only be down like 20%. You just proved my point.

 

[EVNow]

Black hole
… when 44B sucks in 1Trillion

How do you become worlds 2nd richest man ?

Start as the richest and then buy Twitter.

 

[JRP3]

I believe Elon just left another Twitter Spaces saying he was late with meeting with the Tesla Board.

Bro is late with everything.

 

[2daMoon]

We would only know for sure if Elon stops tweeting silly stuff . Also, your YTD looks correct for AMZN and NVDA according to Google but TSLA should be at -60%.

It isn't "my" YTD, it is Nasdaq's chart page comparing them over the past year.

Go make your own, screenshot it, copy/paste, and then explain what you see or did differently to demonstrate what you are talking about.

It is useless to repeat a claim with words and not bring a chart to "Show and Tell" that illustrates the claim for everyone to see.

 

[mongo]

Well, that's frustrating. I thought I laid out my post plainly enough that all would be quite clear.

I certainly disagree that "to vest" is key. What is key, and what was my focus, is the set of parameters necessary for vesting.

What is "vesting" if not "to vest"?
How do recent actions (or those in the months or years to come) in any way interact with the previously vested tranches? The 11th vested Q1 2022, before any Twitter stuff.

Are you thinking of "exercising"?

I believe you are being too clever by half in writing that higher level thought processes are not required.

??? I did not advocate for removal of thought processes, only that the terms of the plan are more black and white than the feelings and intent behind them.

 

[2daMoon]

Yes, look at the last two weeks or so. That's when Elon went off the rails.

And TSLA should be down MUCH less than the other two based on things like PEG. The fact that we are the same, or actually lower, is really bad. If AMZN, with it's crappy profits and single digit growth is down 46%, TSLA should only be down like 20%. You just proved my point.

Show me.

Use the same TSLA Nasdaq chart page and add others using the "+ Compare" button.
(then, I'll save the screenshot, Crop in Paint, Select All, Copy, then paste into the thread post. You may have other tools, but that ought to offer a hint.)

This isn't rocket surgery.

 

[mongo]

Did to look at the trigger value for the uptick rule? (151.03) We got to within 1% of that and magically stopped the slide. That's when the shortzes took their foot off the short pedal. They're too careful to barge thru that trigger and wreck the rest of their plans for the week.

Twas only a 7% drop though?
157.06/167.82 = 0.93

 

[MrMoo]

Show me.

Use the same TSLA Nasdaq chart page and add others using the "+ Compare" button.
(then, I'll save the screenshot, Crop in Paint, Select All, Copy, then paste into the thread post)

This isn't rocket surgery.

Are you looking at a 1 year chart? Give a time frame. Don't bother looking at a 1 year chart because Twitter didn't happen until later in the year. Look at a 3 month chart. The 3 month comparison of NVDA and TSLA Is digusting, it's like a 100% different in stock price. Here is just a 1 month. The divergence is so obvious you can't argue against it at all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would not invest with who Elon has become today. He's pursuing interests that are mostly irrelevant to the mission, and at worst detrimental to TSLA.

Elon didn't 'become' something different today, he's always been this way. Perhaps you ignored that when Elon's top priority aligned with making money in TSLA?

Convincing rural conservative American voters that EVs could even possibly be considered for their next vehicle is a mamoth undertaking. It's not just an engineeering challenge, its a cultural shift, a political shift (even a religious shift). Elon has taken the bull by the horns with the culture and politics. That's what Elon does, that's who he is. This should not surprise you.

The TESLA MISSION necessarily must include ending the age of full-size American gas'n'diesel pickup truck (each year we add 1.5M more oil-burners). CYBERTRUCK can do this. Not with some little limp-wristed puffda Ute, but with a real "Come-to-Jesus-Almighty" Kick ASS American Truck.

I expect the 4-motor Plaid Cybertruck will have more power than the new Semi (perhaps 1,340 hp) will and sell 5x the volume. More importantly, it'll make half-of-America change the way they view EVs, and alter their purchase habits forever. No "Red Blooded American" will want a smoker after their friend gives them a ride thru the mud bog in a PLAID CYBERTRUCK. Or tows their race rig and trailer 500 miles to the event w/o recharging.

That IS THE MISSION. And properly it's Elon's highest priority right now, because the other tasks are in handled, he can't speed them up with better planning, it just takes time to execute on that plan.

This next phase of the EV transition will take a decade or more to happen. Elon's in a hurry to get started, even if that means waving a flag. He'll play to the crowd if that's what it takes.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

YEah, about that. We didn't think that the volatility would be caused by the CEO himself (to the point that the SP would be at a two year low despite major growth). Many of us here have been invested since 2013, long before Tesla was profitable, because we believed in one person's ability to do the impossible. Seeing it all unravel because of that same person and trying to figure out how to move forward now is not easy.

I’m a long time shareholder. I don’t mind the volatility. I’m not leveraged and have been through many periods of gloom and euphoria with this stock. I also don’t mind if Elon sells TSLA stock. I don’t like it, but he has a right to do what he wants with his money, including buying a social media company. What I take offense with is the CEO making statements that injure the company to which he has a fiduciary duty. These aren’t mistakes that are unintentional missteps in trying to further the mission. These reflect selfishness and a callous disregard for Tesla investors. He may think he is saving the world, but that is his opinion and the behavior is not acceptable for a CEO.

 

[Gigapress]

YEah, about that. We didn't think that the volatility would be caused by the CEO himself (to the point that the SP would be at a two year low despite major growth). Many of us here have been invested since 2013, long before Tesla was profitable, because we believed in one person's ability to do the impossible. Seeing it all unravel because of that same person and trying to figure out how to move forward now is not easy.

Every single major tech stock save for Apple and IBM and every automotive stock is at a two year low. TSLA has been tightly coupled to the macros since Q4 2020 up until about six weeks ago.

Are we certain that was solely due to one person? What about other factors? The apparent onslaught of short and distort nonsense that seems to have initiated after the Q3 P&D came out? The trolls and bots showing up all over TSLA online retail investment communities? The “disappointing” Q3 earnings report? China demand and COVID fears? Naked short selling, spoofing, capping and other hedge fund and market maker shenanigans? Elon selling finally having a measurable impact that lasted longer than a couple trading days? The declining overall global sales of cars and trucks in Q3? Continued Fed hawkishness?

What about the aggressive AMZN drop since Nov 1st that preceded the TSLA drop by a few trading days and almost exactly correlates (after normalizing variability being higher for TSLA than AMZN) with the TSLA movement in Nov and Dec? These two have been tightly correlated all year and have by far the most derivatives trading activity in the history of the stock market, which means any suspicions of market maker manipulation and retail investor manipulation is especially heightened when both have such similar activity.

What analysis has anyone done to actually tease out these various factors and estimate the relative importance? For all the complaining and fear I have seen no one putting out rigorous breakdowns. I’m pretty sure ascribing causes to short term stock moves is nearly impossible, as evidenced most strongly by the notable dearth of options trading billionaires exploiting this ability to rapidly gain wealth.

 

[JRP3]

CYBERTRUCK can do this. Not with some little limp-wristed puffda Ute, but with a real "Come-to-Jesus-Almighty" Kick ASS American Truck.

The vehicle will do it on it's own merits, just as other Tesla vehicles have. They don't require turning off existing owners to entice new ones. No good product has needed to do that.

 

[2daMoon]

Are you looking at a 1 year chart? Give a time frame. Don't bother looking at a 1 year chart because Twitter didn't happen until later in the year. Look at a 3 month chart. The 3 month comparison of NVDA and TSLA Is digusting, it's like a 100% different in stock price.

Sure, compare a three month slice of that chart, make it however you would like and post the result. Asking other people to prove YOUR point is, well, pointless, isn't it?

The chart I reference shows a steady tracking of the three stocks @BornToFly mentioned and how they performed over a period of time long enough to clearly illustrate if there were any significant deviation from that shared trend due to some other factor.

It sounds to me like you hold a belief and want to make sure the chart supports it, rather than accepting how some other possibility may exist.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Twas only a 7% drop though?
157.06/167.82 = 0.93

The intraday high during the main session today was 175.05 and we touched 179.14 in the pre-Market 2 mins after the CPI data came out (b4 shortzes got their boots on):

Pre-Market High	$179.14 (08:32:04 AM)

So hedgies dropped the SP about 11.9% from the high to the low (before covering into the Close), all the while avoiding triggering the uptick rule.

Nobody said they're not good at what they do, it's just that what they do is evel.

 

[Stretch2727]

Elon didn't 'become' something different today, he's always been this way. Perhaps you ignored that when Elon's top priority aligned with making money in TSLA?

Convincing rural conservative American voters that EVs could even possibly be onsidered for their next vehicle is a mamoth undertaking. It's not just an engineeering challenge, its a cultural shift, a political shift (even a religious shift). Elon has taken the bull by the horns with the culture and politics. That's what Elon does, that's who he is. This should not surprise you.

The TESLA MISSION necessarily must include ending the age of full-size American gas'n'diesel pickup truck (each year we add 1.5M more oil-burners). CYBERTRUCK can do this. Not with some little limp-wristed puffda Ute, but with a real "Come-to-Jesus-Almighty" Kick ASS American Truck.

I expect the 4-motor Plaid Cybertruck will have more power than the new Semi (perhaps 1,340 hp) will and sell 5x the volume. More importantly, it'll make half-of-America change the way they view EVs, and alter their purchase habits forever. No "Red Blooded American" will want a smoker after their friend gives them a ride thru the mud bog in a PLAID CYBERTRUCK. Or tows their race rig and trailer 500 miles to the event w/o recharging.

That IS THE MISSION. And properly it's Elon's highest priority right now, because the other tasks are in handled, he can't speed them up with better planning, it just takes time to execute on that plan.

This next phase of the EV transition will take a decade or more to happen. Elon's in a hurry to get started, even if that means waving a flag. He'll play to the crowd if that's what it takes.

There is an estimated 1M+ reservations for CT. I don't think increasing demand for CT is at the top of his priorities. His priority should be to get it into production.

 

[dl003]

Every single major tech stock save for Apple and IBM and every automotive stock is at a two year low. TSLA has been tightly coupled to the macros since Q4 2020 up until about six weeks ago.

Are we certain that was solely due to one person? What about other factors? The apparent onslaught of short and distort nonsense that seems to have initiated after the Q3 P&D came out? The trolls and bots showing up all over TSLA online retail investment communities? The “disappointing” Q3 earnings report? China demand and COVID fears? Naked short selling, spoofing, capping and other hedge fund and market maker shenanigans? Elon selling finally having a measurable impact that lasted longer than a couple trading days? The declining overall global sales of cars and trucks in Q3? Continued Fed hawkishness?

What about the aggressive AMZN drop since Nov 1st that preceded the TSLA drop by a few trading days and almost exactly correlates (after normalizing variability being higher for TSLA than AMZN) with the TSLA movement in Nov and Dec? These two have been tightly correlated all year and have by far the most derivatives trading activity in the history of the stock market, which means any suspicions of market maker manipulation and retail investor manipulation is especially heightened when both have such similar activity.

What analysis has anyone done to actually tease out these various factors and estimate the relative importance? For all the complaining and fear I have seen no one putting out rigorous breakdowns. I’m pretty sure ascribing causes to short term stock moves is nearly impossible, as evidenced most strongly by the notable dearth of options trading billionaires exploiting this ability to rapidly gain wealth.

You keep comparing TSLA’s performance to every POS stock out there while expressing how strong the fundamentals are. If TSLA is supposed to just follow AMZN and/or QQQ, what is the purpose of this board may I ask? I have looked at every financial metrics and TSLA beats everything else out there with the exception of maybe ENPH and yet here we are -60% for the year.

 

[lazybot]

The continued drawdown of the stock price has me seriously reconsidering my early retirement plans as TSLA is a significant part of my networth. I continue to HODL and when I look back I have added about 15% to my TSLA stock position this year with most of it at the top. Obviously I would have done much better if I waited until the recent lows to add to my position. Note to self - wait for a significant drop before adding to TSLA as there will always be fud and there will be significant drops. I continue to believe in Elon and that Tesla will continue to execute. However there is no denying that Twitter overhang is the main cause of the recent severe drop. Macro conditions defintely had a role also but the compression in PE is severe compared to any of the other big tech companies. I believe that Elon is doing all the things he is doing with regards to Twitter as a way to counter the extreme leftist and progressive stranglehold on big tech and MSM (in the US atleast) and provide a platform for people to engage in a fair debate on politics and culture. However he is not perfect and will continue to be reckless and make mistakes. MSM thrives on negativity and after Trump they needed a villian which Putin filled for some time this year. When the war in Ukraine is no longer the current thing they found a new villian in Elon as he took over their playground(Twitter). MSM reach is far beyond that of Twitter so they are able to make people who are not on Twitter also hate everything related to Elon. There is no denying that this negative propaganda has a significant affect on Tesla as a brand. I feel bad for all the retail investors that started investing in Tesla in the last two years as it takes a lot of conviction to hold on to TSLA in the face of an extended drawdown of the share price inspite of the strong execution. I hope this is the bottom and best days for both Tesla and TSLA are ahead of us.