I have been a Tesla shareholder since 2018 and over the last 4 years this thread has helped me maintain my conviction during many difficult times. By 2020 over 98% of my net worth was invested in TSLA and since then I have continued to add shares whenever I can afford to.
I very rarely post anything because I don’t want to add any more clutter to this thread…but lately the signal to noise ratio has deteriorated and I just wanted to add my thoughts (for what it’s worth)…
I understand how difficult and disheartening it can be when you see your portfolio down 60% or more and the share price is significantly lower than many of the share purchases you’ve made in the last couple of years.
But if you are working hard to invest all your proceeds in TSLA, then surely logic dictates that this current price allows you to accumulate a lot more shares than if the share price was much higher now, right? Then when the share price recovers (it’s only a matter of time, and patience) your gains will be significantly higher for any shares you’ve managed to purchase at this lower level. Obviously this only applies for long term investments and not if you need the money in the short term.
This is the principal I followed when the price dropped in 2019. I continued buying as many shares as I could afford because the market had become disconnected from what I knew about the company. There was a lot of noise back then too. Although it was significant at the time, the funny thing is that when you look at the 5 year chart now you can barely even see that dip in 2019, due to the change in the vertical scale! I'm sure that given enough time, this dip will look the same...
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There has been a lot of speculation lately (just like there was speculation about the Model 3 ramp back in 2019), but we haven’t seen any actual evidence to back up that speculation. The naysayers keep trying to spin the narrative that Tesla has a ‘demand problem’ (just like they’ve always done) and that anything less than 50% growth is a disaster. They cherry-pick their information from individual markets or individual quarters to try and fit that narrative and as a result they just can’t see the wood for the trees.
The reality of delivering cars all over the world from a handful of factories is that the numbers are often lumpy (especially when you zoom in), but if you zoom out far enough you will see that the growth continues.
With Covid and supply chain challenges, obviously the growth hasn’t been as high as it might have been under more normal circumstances and sometimes that can be frustrating. But even if it ends up at 43 or 45% growth this year, that’s still remarkable under the circumstances.
Tesla have continued to execute amazingly well during extremely challenging conditions over the last 2 years. I expect them to continue to do that and I expect that the challenging conditions over the next 12 to 18 months will only continue to widen the gap between Tesla and the legacy OEMs.
Ignore the noise and just stay laser focused on the actual company performance and fundamentals. Choose your sources very carefully and don’t pay too much attention to idle speculation or unsubstantiated claims (either positive or negative).
Manage your expectations….we can all sometimes get over excited by the potential for Tesla (for good reason) and it’s easy to set unrealistic expectations, which results in disappointment if they don’t achieve what we expected. It’s bad enough when the fudsters set unrealistic expectations just to create a miss, so we need to be very careful not to do that to ourselves too!
Remember that every day there are new people driving a Tesla for the first time and we all know how powerful and transformative that experience can be…
I recently came across a series of videos by a guy from the UK who bought a Model Y back in June this year. He described himself as someone who is into cars….what we call a ‘petrolhead’ here in the UK….with a Porsche 911 in the garage (I think his fifth 911) and his wife has had a Porsche Macan SUV for the last 8 years. The Model Y was for his wife…..a reluctant purchase for both of them because it seemed the Porsche Macan EV was still some way off. They had previously tried a Jaguar I-Pace back in 2018, but that was short lived due to the “dire software interface” / “dire inefficiency of the vehicle and the range anxiety ”.
They were clearly sceptical going into this purchase and the first video is their initial reaction after 10 days of owning the Model Y:
Tesla Model Y Long Range 10 day initial impressions review England UK
Some direct quotes from the video:
This transformation is a story we’ve heard many times over, but we sometimes forget and it’s good to be reminded from time to time….and coming from a die-hard petrolhead I think it carries more weight. He articulates his thoughts quite well and it’s interesting to see the transformation play out and the change in his thinking over a relatively short timeframe.
Tesla Model Y Long Range 3 month 4,000 mile U.K. review GB
A few months in and he’s selling his Porsche 911 because he never uses it anymore…bearing in mind the Model Y is his wife’s car!
Tesla Model Y England U.K. - what next? 2nd EV?
This kind of story continues to happen all around the world and each one of these new ‘converts’ spreads the story to their friends and family.
I’m not worried about demand and Tesla has plenty of cards to play to keep that demand exceeding production for many years to come…
