Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Look at this. SEC is doing their job?
Is Reuters, CNBC and the rest of MSM next….? Nah, they are on same team…
View attachment 885020

They're really not. They should be going after large media outlets that spread stories based on "sources familiar with the matter".

 

[Todd Burch]

The drop is a head fake. 50 basis points is exactly what was expected by the majority of Wall Street. They're trying to fool you to sell your shares. Don't let them.

 

[geometro]

Fed minutes are very hawkish with continued rate increases (despite the soft CPI print from yesterday)

 

[Discoducky]

Fed minutes are very hawkish with continued rate increases (despite the soft CPI print from yesterday)

Can you please point to the areas that you think are "very hawkish"?

 

[FastCompany]

Damn hear had a heart attack!

CNBC site showing this periodically and then reverting to correct numbers for $ and % drop. Current SP always shown correctly, so seems to be confusing prev day closing price for some reason.

 

[stealthyc]

Can you please point to the areas that you think are "very hawkish"?

I believe they have raised their expectations for 2023 EOY rates to 5.1% from 4.6%, and do not expect to pivot to cuts until 2024

 

[AndrewZ]

Can you please point to the areas that you think are "very hawkish"?

How about the September vs December dot plots

Everything moved up. But at least we now have total consensus for 2022 rates.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FOMC summary:

• Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
• Fed lifts rates by half percentage point, sees economy nearing stall speed | Reuters

Darth Powell to speak in 12 min at 2:30 pm ET.

 

[geometro]

Can you please point to the areas that you think are "very hawkish"?

Terminal rate at 5.1 vs 4.6
Median rate forecast at 4.1 (higher than Sept)
Distribution of forecasts skewed higher than before
Unemployment forecast to 4.6 (end of '23)
2023 GDP at 0.5% (down from 1.2% in Sept)

 

[Krugerrand]

Dont act like that one person is just some guy who works for Tesla and is out on Twitter saying nonsense.

Elon has not only alienated just progressives he has alienated a lot of Tesla supporters that used to be out in places like Twitter countering FUD. Lots of them myself included are on Twitter pushing back at Elon and his new best friends. You also see a lot of them embarrassing themselves praising every move Elon makes with Twitter as the best thing since sliced bread. You have people in podcasts dedicated to Tesla avoiding doing anything but apologizing for Elon antics and say that recent polls of 1000s of people that show sentiment towards Tesla has dropped massively are poor polls.

I am now taking a timeout from Twitter by the way because of Elon.

Just curious how many times you think you’ve repeated yourself? I’ve not been doing a hard count, but I’m pretty positive you’re well over 100xs. How many more times do you think you’ll need to repeat yourself before your desired result is achieved - whatever that is?

 

[AndrewZ]

Looking at those moves on the dot plot, I don't know how the terminal rate only went from 4.6 to 5.1

In the September meeting, nobody saw above 5.0 and now almost every member believes it'll be 5.0+. This will turn into 5.25, 5.5, might even see a 6 handle

 

[traxila]

They are just rattling everyone's cage. They have no idea what they will be doing in February. They don't want the markets rallying from here because they believe it could be counterproductive re: inflation. They have no clue really, but asset inflation is a thing. So they keep adding to the dot plot and talking about the labor market and then they wait for the entrails to solidify so they could read them.

If Powell's head does not explode while he is talking, market may go up from where it is when he is done. TSLA certainly has reason to as it has been punished for the next eight rate increases already.

 

[elasalle]

Like yesterday CNBC is showing weird ticker again , showing 14% drops -

 

[Christine69420]

How about the September vs December dot plots

View attachment 885029
Everything moved up. But at least we now have total consensus for 2022 rates.

So in a best case scenario we get away with two increases in 2023 before it turns?


Never seen any of these beasts before so struggling a bit with how to parse the dotty dots...

 

[Max Plaid]

I have been a Tesla shareholder since 2018 and over the last 4 years this thread has helped me maintain my conviction during many difficult times. By 2020 over 98% of my net worth was invested in TSLA and since then I have continued to add shares whenever I can afford to.

I very rarely post anything because I don’t want to add any more clutter to this thread…but lately the signal to noise ratio has deteriorated and I just wanted to add my thoughts (for what it’s worth)…



I understand how difficult and disheartening it can be when you see your portfolio down 60% or more and the share price is significantly lower than many of the share purchases you’ve made in the last couple of years.

But if you are working hard to invest all your proceeds in TSLA, then surely logic dictates that this current price allows you to accumulate a lot more shares than if the share price was much higher now, right? Then when the share price recovers (it’s only a matter of time, and patience) your gains will be significantly higher for any shares you’ve managed to purchase at this lower level. Obviously this only applies for long term investments and not if you need the money in the short term.

This is the principal I followed when the price dropped in 2019. I continued buying as many shares as I could afford because the market had become disconnected from what I knew about the company. There was a lot of noise back then too. Although it was significant at the time, the funny thing is that when you look at the 5 year chart now you can barely even see that dip in 2019, due to the change in the vertical scale! I'm sure that given enough time, this dip will look the same...

View attachment 884945

There has been a lot of speculation lately (just like there was speculation about the Model 3 ramp back in 2019), but we haven’t seen any actual evidence to back up that speculation. The naysayers keep trying to spin the narrative that Tesla has a ‘demand problem’ (just like they’ve always done) and that anything less than 50% growth is a disaster. They cherry-pick their information from individual markets or individual quarters to try and fit that narrative and as a result they just can’t see the wood for the trees.

The reality of delivering cars all over the world from a handful of factories is that the numbers are often lumpy (especially when you zoom in), but if you zoom out far enough you will see that the growth continues.

With Covid and supply chain challenges, obviously the growth hasn’t been as high as it might have been under more normal circumstances and sometimes that can be frustrating. But even if it ends up at 43 or 45% growth this year, that’s still remarkable under the circumstances.

Tesla have continued to execute amazingly well during extremely challenging conditions over the last 2 years. I expect them to continue to do that and I expect that the challenging conditions over the next 12 to 18 months will only continue to widen the gap between Tesla and the legacy OEMs.

Ignore the noise and just stay laser focused on the actual company performance and fundamentals. Choose your sources very carefully and don’t pay too much attention to idle speculation or unsubstantiated claims (either positive or negative).

Manage your expectations….we can all sometimes get over excited by the potential for Tesla (for good reason) and it’s easy to set unrealistic expectations, which results in disappointment if they don’t achieve what we expected. It’s bad enough when the fudsters set unrealistic expectations just to create a miss, so we need to be very careful not to do that to ourselves too!

Remember that every day there are new people driving a Tesla for the first time and we all know how powerful and transformative that experience can be…

I recently came across a series of videos by a guy from the UK who bought a Model Y back in June this year. He described himself as someone who is into cars….what we call a ‘petrolhead’ here in the UK….with a Porsche 911 in the garage (I think his fifth 911) and his wife has had a Porsche Macan SUV for the last 8 years. The Model Y was for his wife…..a reluctant purchase for both of them because it seemed the Porsche Macan EV was still some way off. They had previously tried a Jaguar I-Pace back in 2018, but that was short lived due to the “dire software interface” / “dire inefficiency of the vehicle and the range anxiety ”.

They were clearly sceptical going into this purchase and the first video is their initial reaction after 10 days of owning the Model Y:

Tesla Model Y Long Range 10 day initial impressions review England UK

Some direct quotes from the video:


This transformation is a story we’ve heard many times over, but we sometimes forget and it’s good to be reminded from time to time….and coming from a die-hard petrolhead I think it carries more weight. He articulates his thoughts quite well and it’s interesting to see the transformation play out and the change in his thinking over a relatively short timeframe.

Tesla Model Y Long Range 3 month 4,000 mile U.K. review GB

A few months in and he’s selling his Porsche 911 because he never uses it anymore…bearing in mind the Model Y is his wife’s car!

Tesla Model Y England U.K. - what next? 2nd EV?

This kind of story continues to happen all around the world and each one of these new ‘converts’ spreads the story to their friends and family.

I’m not worried about demand and Tesla has plenty of cards to play to keep that demand exceeding production for many years to come…

I remember test-driving a Tesla for the first time, a P85 back in September 2013, I was totally blown-away, speechless, I couldn't think about anything else until I ordered one that December

I suspect this is the same for almost everyone, you just cannot comprehend how good they are until you actually drive one, then you "get it"

 

[AndrewZ]

So in a best case scenario we get away with two increases in 2023 before it turns?


Never seen any of these beasts before so struggling a bit with how to parse the dotty dots...

Also just started following this stuff myself a few months ago so still wrapping my head around it

This is the description at the bottom of the dot plot

 

[thesmokingman]

Oh man, Darth Powell has taken the stage...

 

[phantasms]

The drop is a head fake. 50 basis points is exactly what was expected by the majority of Wall Street. They're trying to fool you to sell your shares. Don't let them.

Dat dot plot tho

 

[SOULPEDL]

Stop loss being triggered by MM’s and hedgies.

Explained like Morris the cat after Thanksgiving, who sets these crazy stop losses? Retail or Funds being controlled on people's behalf or a mix? Like why a bunch at 150?

So imagine when Tesla pops and you thought you had 10% to find nothing in there. Is that what happens should that scenario pan out? Then the broker says "We were protecting your investments from going to zero!" Yes/No?

 

[Todd Burch]

2023 GDP at 0.5% (down from 1.2% in Sept)

Wouldn't this one be dovish?