Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

the unfortunate by-product of what is happening with Elon and Tesla stock is the transition to EV’s may be impaired which is not good for anyone, certainly not us investors.

True the transition requires product and if to many consumers reject the prime manufacturer of the product then that is bad for the transition. Truly believe WS is viewing the sentiment on Tesla as negative now from a significant enough percentage of consumers to hurt the demand from Tesla if not short term then long term.

 

[Knightshade]

At least we can't blame Elon today for selling

We could though.

10b5-1 plans can be executed during blackout periods after all.

Note I'm not at all saying that is what is happening but the narrative it's impossible for Elon to sell during these periods is not accurate in light of the 10b5-1 exception.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I think many investors are simply shifting their portfolios into what they perceive as safer investments. Not surprising considering how awful this year has been for growth stocks and TSLA in particular.

 

[MikeC]

Anyone given any thought to the possibility this huge bear raid is just to lower buy in prices for hedge funds once Moody's upgrades their rating?

The funds waiting for the green light to buy wouldn't want to pay inflated prices, they'd want to buy as low as possible. And according to Tesla Momma, Moody's usually changes their ratings at year's end, a bit over a week from now.

Could this bear raid simply be a coordinated effort to prep TSLA for the waiting funds to start accumulating?

I think this whole episode will end up being a huge transfer of shares from retail to institutional investors.

 

[tinyrodent]

At what share price does hostile takeover become a serious risk?

 

[RedOctober]

I agree we'd still be down right now even without the Elon factor, pretty much everything is down. We'd just be down less than we are without the Elon factor.

This is a bear raid on TSLA by Wall Street, they were going to take advantage of the macros no matter what Elon did. Unfortunately he did present them with some very opportune moments to push the raid even harder, and TSLA has paid for it.

TSLA will go back up eventually. Someday. Maybe? I sure do hope so!!!

That’s the mystery investors like myself have to negotiate. At hat point do I buy more shares and how long before we see another bull run. I personally think sometime before the mass production of the CT. I will be an early owner of one and it would nice to see the stock have a run at this point.

 

[UncaNed]

...
1) Announcement of a totally new model (maybe Mexico built van?)
...

When they do a van, I hope it's a van that the USPS, Amazon, FedEx, and UPS will also like!

 

[Knightshade]

At what share price does hostile takeover become a serious risk?

Like $20-30 a share or something?

Market cap right now is still almost half a trillion dollars.

Apple, famous for hoarding cash, has like 48 billion on hand.

 

[ZeApelido]

When do I bring up the uncomfortable conversation with my dad about accelerating my inheritance to now to buy more TSLA?

 

[UncaNed]

What we are experiencing is a climax run to downside instead of upside
it is good that it will drop rapidly as much as it wants to, and then exhaust itself
Once the selling is done, then we can go up

The faster the selling gets over the better, so I welcome it

Doesn't that mostly depend on things like Ukraine war, European gas situation, Chinese housing market, Covid, and general worldwide economy?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I think many investors are simply shifting their portfolios into what they perceive as safer investments. Not surprising considering how awful this year has been for growth stocks and TSLA in particular.

At this point I think it's tax loss selling and window dressing.

 

[dl003]

This is a troubling post for me to read. First, because TSLA is actually plotting a pattern on its chart that is in no way unique to oversold stocks/indexes during a market meltdown as we have seen this before and we are seeing it on other stocks right now. And secondly, because the bottom of the 2008/2009 meltdown of the DJI left the exact same pattern........one that was clear enough that I had called the bottom before-hand and acted accordingly.........and yet I did not act accordingly with my TSLA shares this time because I let all the 'noise' of life get in the way despite looking for a similar opportunity over the last decade. It should have been clear that we would be trading here, and I missed it. I will take the 'stoic' road as @Queeg500 often reminds us to do. It was MY fault that I didn't sell enough shares to put some more money on the sidelines when TSLA was grossly over-priced. It was MY fault that I didn't sell some shares on the way down when the rest of life was too noisy for me to pay closer attention, and when I thought TSLA as an ETF would outperform other stocks in a meltdown even though it doesn't pay a dividend. I will not be too proud to say Chicken Genius and others were right, and I was wrong. And I will also say that @TrendTrader007 is looking at some very relative data and sharing it with the rest of the board. And I won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for the actions I didn't take. And I certainly won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for a full market meltdown following a laundry list of items that are all individually bad for the market, and that were all put in the pot together at the same time with the flames on high........to include a 2 year global disruption of EVERYTHING at a time when the Market was massively inflated with the value of hindsight, an over-extended period of almost 0% interest followed by massive & rapid rate hikes, the largest transition of global energy sources, power, and wealth the world has ever seen. And of course the inevitable stagnation resulting from the end of 30+ years of US military involvement in the Middle East which had ramped to a $2+ Trillion per year expenditure for the last several administrations (think post-Vietnam on steroids here). No..............of course I am not going to point a finger at Elon for that.

Here is the chart for the DJI for the 2008/2009 crash:
View attachment 887135

Here is TSLA today:
View attachment 887136
And we might have just a little ways to go yet. But IF history repeats itself, that will be a quick dip, and TSLA should pop its head back above 200 again fairly quickly too.

For comparison, here is Amazon:
View attachment 887139
As you can see, AMZN followed a similar pattern and it has already hit a point that would otherwise look like it could only be a random point on the chart until you compared it to the 2007/2008 DJI drop

And here is Netflix:
View attachment 887140
Interestingly, NFLX go hit harder and faster than Amazon or Tesla, and it hit its support back in June. But it got beat down in exactly the same way.

I don't want to muddy the waters of this post with my thoughts on how and why there is so much noise around Elon at the moment and how BIG that fight really is (save that for a separate post that is long overdue). I just want to get this out there to show that TSLA is not in any way trading in an unprecedented manner, and that several other BIG stocks are trading in exactly the same way..........without any involvement in Twitter, or any claims that their Boards should be acting in a different manner, etc. It is under circumstances like these that we should all be paying closer attention to the source of some of the noise that caused us to miss some massive opportunities............you know, like doubling the amount of shares you own. And it is during times like these that we need to make those examinations void of Cognitive Dissonance to the best of our abilities. For instance........I have long enjoyed Ross Gerber. Yet, if I had been pouring through all of my old trading notes instead of watching Ross drink Teslaquilla on YouTube while telling the World we should be buying TSLA all the way through the stock price slide because he had it all figured out, I would be in a much better position now. So what does that say about Ross' character that he is now pointing a finger at Elon and the TSLA board instead of looking at the other 3 fingers pointing back at himself. We all make mistakes. But how much we improve going forward is dependent upon how much reflection we have on ALL of the surrounding events, and on our ability to have some accountability for the things that were in our power to notice and to change.

I predict this post will become extremely relevant at the end of another 10-12 year cycle.

View attachment 887146

Well said. My portfolio balance is the result of my own doing. Believe it or not, I also foresaw a decline into the 180s back when we were still trading at 270. Yet, instead of selling, I decided to load a crap ton of hedges and ride it down. Did worse than I would have had I sold but for me TSLA is not for sale. You've got to stand for something.

However, I do wish we get our short shorts and destroyer of shorts back from the other side. Where is he?

 

[Mengy]

At this point I think it's tax loss selling and window dressing.

If this is the case then we should see a sharp turnaround after Jan 1st. Or at least an improving trendline.

What an ugly end to an ugly year, lol.

 

[WattsHappening]

This is a troubling post for me to read. First, because TSLA is actually plotting a pattern on its chart that is in no way unique to oversold stocks/indexes during a market meltdown as we have seen this before and we are seeing it on other stocks right now. And secondly, because the bottom of the 2008/2009 meltdown of the DJI left the exact same pattern........one that was clear enough that I had called the bottom before-hand and acted accordingly.........and yet I did not act accordingly with my TSLA shares this time because I let all the 'noise' of life get in the way despite looking for a similar opportunity over the last decade. It should have been clear that we would be trading here, and I missed it. I will take the 'stoic' road as @Queeg500 often reminds us to do. It was MY fault that I didn't sell enough shares to put some more money on the sidelines when TSLA was grossly over-priced. It was MY fault that I didn't sell some shares on the way down when the rest of life was too noisy for me to pay closer attention, and when I thought TSLA as an ETF would outperform other stocks in a meltdown even though it doesn't pay a dividend. I will not be too proud to say Chicken Genius and others were right, and I was wrong. And I will also say that @TrendTrader007 is looking at some very relative data and sharing it with the rest of the board. And I won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for the actions I didn't take. And I certainly won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for a full market meltdown following a laundry list of items that are all individually bad for the market, and that were all put in the pot together at the same time with the flames on high........to include a 2 year global disruption of EVERYTHING at a time when the Market was massively inflated with the value of hindsight, an over-extended period of almost 0% interest followed by massive & rapid rate hikes, the largest transition of global energy sources, power, and wealth the world has ever seen. And of course the inevitable stagnation resulting from the end of 30+ years of US military involvement in the Middle East which had ramped to a $2+ Trillion per year expenditure for the last several administrations (think post-Vietnam on steroids here). No..............of course I am not going to point a finger at Elon for that.

Here is the chart for the DJI for the 2008/2009 crash:
View attachment 887135

Here is TSLA today:
View attachment 887136
And we might have just a little ways to go yet. But IF history repeats itself, that will be a quick dip, and TSLA should pop its head back above 200 again fairly quickly too.

For comparison, here is Amazon:
View attachment 887139
As you can see, AMZN followed a similar pattern and it has already hit a point that would otherwise look like it could only be a random point on the chart until you compared it to the 2007/2008 DJI drop

And here is Netflix:
View attachment 887140
Interestingly, NFLX go hit harder and faster than Amazon or Tesla, and it hit its support back in June. But it got beat down in exactly the same way.

I don't want to muddy the waters of this post with my thoughts on how and why there is so much noise around Elon at the moment and how BIG that fight really is (save that for a separate post that is long overdue). I just want to get this out there to show that TSLA is not in any way trading in an unprecedented manner, and that several other BIG stocks are trading in exactly the same way..........without any involvement in Twitter, or any claims that their Boards should be acting in a different manner, etc. It is under circumstances like these that we should all be paying closer attention to the source of some of the noise that caused us to miss some massive opportunities............you know, like doubling the amount of shares you own. And it is during times like these that we need to make those examinations void of Cognitive Dissonance to the best of our abilities. For instance........I have long enjoyed Ross Gerber. Yet, if I had been pouring through all of my old trading notes instead of watching Ross drink Teslaquilla on YouTube while telling the World we should be buying TSLA all the way through the stock price slide because he had it all figured out, I would be in a much better position now. So what does that say about Ross' character that he is now pointing a finger at Elon and the TSLA board instead of looking at the other 3 fingers pointing back at himself. We all make mistakes. But how much we improve going forward is dependent upon how much reflection we have on ALL of the surrounding events, and on our ability to have some accountability for the things that were in our power to notice and to change.

I predict this post will become extremely relevant at the end of another 10-12 year cycle.

View attachment 887146

Definitely nominated for post of merit. Thanks @Paracelsus!

 

[Nocturnal]

Why Tesla, GM stand to benefit from Treasury's EV tax credit rule delay

Big news out of the federal government could be a big boon for certain automakers. The Treasury Department said yesterday it would delay releasing proposed guidance regarding the sourcing of EV batteries that are part of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) new $7,500 EV tax credit.

finance.yahoo.com

Hard to find positive media lately but this fits the bill. This author is suggesting that Tesla will for sure have the full credit from Jan-March but only half after due to the sourcing rules. Could be an interesting Q1 if customers think that is the case.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This is a troubling post for me to read. First, because TSLA is actually plotting a pattern on its chart that is in no way unique to oversold stocks/indexes during a market meltdown as we have seen this before and we are seeing it on other stocks right now. And secondly, because the bottom of the 2008/2009 meltdown of the DJI left the exact same pattern........one that was clear enough that I had called the bottom before-hand and acted accordingly.........and yet I did not act accordingly with my TSLA shares this time because I let all the 'noise' of life get in the way despite looking for a similar opportunity over the last decade. It should have been clear that we would be trading here, and I missed it. I will take the 'stoic' road as @Queeg500 often reminds us to do. It was MY fault that I didn't sell enough shares to put some more money on the sidelines when TSLA was grossly over-priced. It was MY fault that I didn't sell some shares on the way down when the rest of life was too noisy for me to pay closer attention, and when I thought TSLA as an ETF would outperform other stocks in a meltdown even though it doesn't pay a dividend. I will not be too proud to say Chicken Genius and others were right, and I was wrong. And I will also say that @TrendTrader007 is looking at some very relative data and sharing it with the rest of the board. And I won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for the actions I didn't take. And I certainly won't point a finger at Elon and blame him for a full market meltdown following a laundry list of items that are all individually bad for the market, and that were all put in the pot together at the same time with the flames on high........to include a 2 year global disruption of EVERYTHING at a time when the Market was massively inflated with the value of hindsight, an over-extended period of almost 0% interest followed by massive & rapid rate hikes, the largest transition of global energy sources, power, and wealth the world has ever seen. And of course the inevitable stagnation resulting from the end of 30+ years of US military involvement in the Middle East which had ramped to a $2+ Trillion per year expenditure for the last several administrations (think post-Vietnam on steroids here). No..............of course I am not going to point a finger at Elon for that.

Here is the chart for the DJI for the 2008/2009 crash:
View attachment 887135

Here is TSLA today:
View attachment 887136
And we might have just a little ways to go yet. But IF history repeats itself, that will be a quick dip, and TSLA should pop its head back above 200 again fairly quickly too.

For comparison, here is Amazon:
View attachment 887139
As you can see, AMZN followed a similar pattern and it has already hit a point that would otherwise look like it could only be a random point on the chart until you compared it to the 2007/2008 DJI drop

And here is Netflix:
View attachment 887140
Interestingly, NFLX go hit harder and faster than Amazon or Tesla, and it hit its support back in June. But it got beat down in exactly the same way.

I don't want to muddy the waters of this post with my thoughts on how and why there is so much noise around Elon at the moment and how BIG that fight really is (save that for a separate post that is long overdue). I just want to get this out there to show that TSLA is not in any way trading in an unprecedented manner, and that several other BIG stocks are trading in exactly the same way..........without any involvement in Twitter, or any claims that their Boards should be acting in a different manner, etc. It is under circumstances like these that we should all be paying closer attention to the source of some of the noise that caused us to miss some massive opportunities............you know, like doubling the amount of shares you own. And it is during times like these that we need to make those examinations void of Cognitive Dissonance to the best of our abilities. For instance........I have long enjoyed Ross Gerber. Yet, if I had been pouring through all of my old trading notes instead of watching Ross drink Teslaquilla on YouTube while telling the World we should be buying TSLA all the way through the stock price slide because he had it all figured out, I would be in a much better position now. So what does that say about Ross' character that he is now pointing a finger at Elon and the TSLA board instead of looking at the other 3 fingers pointing back at himself. We all make mistakes. But how much we improve going forward is dependent upon how much reflection we have on ALL of the surrounding events, and on our ability to have some accountability for the things that were in our power to notice and to change.

I predict this post will become extremely relevant at the end of another 10-12 year cycle.

View attachment 887146

I like this chart of AAPL 2005 to 2010

Apple Inc., AAPL Advanced Chart - (NAS) AAPL, Apple Inc. Stock Price - BigCharts.com

AAPL - Apple Inc. Advanced Chart, Quote and financial news from the leading provider and award-winning BigCharts.com.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

 

[Singuy]

Someone called mad money to rant about Ford's customer service and ended up buying a tesla...what????

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605041351619387392

 

[Nomad40]

We could though.

10b5-1 plans can be executed during blackout periods after all.

Note I'm not at all saying that is what is happening but the narrative it's impossible for Elon to sell during these periods is not accurate in light of the 10b5-1 exception.

Elon sold shares from the start of November till 12/28 last year. I'm not sure why people keep saying he can't sell during blackout dates.
Hopefully, this could be the last or 2nd last batch he planned this year.

 

[Skipdd]

Definitely nominated for post of merit. Thanks @Paracelsus!

I created my own special label for such posts. I learned A LOT reading @Paracelsus post. It’s clear I have more to learn.

 

[wipster]

I feel like I've been living in an alternate reality for the last 3 months... not only from Tesla,TSLA, and blue bird, but personal issues as well. Hoping the new year brings some positive changes... for all of us.