Usually it means lard. Butter is mantequilla.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla really trying to hit Q4 numbers, at the cost of margins here.
Personally I would rather they just built inventory until Jan 1st after which Uncle Sam pays the $7,500 discount, rather than Tesla.
Personally I would rather they just built inventory until Jan 1st after which Uncle Sam pays the $7,500 discount, rather than Tesla.
Point of sale doesn't happen until 2024.
Ambiguity is due to the wording of the law vs what the Treasury just released.
If it is as I read the law, mineral and component requirements kick in Jan 1.
If it is as the Treasury note calls out, the pack size credit stays in force until March or whenever they release their guidance.
Could all be in my head...
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It's 10 days. Not really a material impact on margins.
One could argue the momentum on sales is more important. Just the appearance of building inventory could be bad.
EDIT - and a GREAT advertising technique. People buying these cars will be with family over the holidays and talking about them and giving test drives.
I genuinely think Troy tries (or tried?) to be objective, but even within his Patreon posts he appears more ready to accept or provide a bearish interpretation of events than he used to. For instance, I don't think it is possible to interpret the upper bound of 2023 demand if Q4 sales outstrips current production under this discount program. Not to mention, this is a targeted campaign at existing order holders with nowhere near as much exposure as the 2023 tax credit.
Xepa777
Member
If Tesla doesn’t hit 45% annual growth, good chance stock can dip much harder than any payoff for cost of some bigger rebates. We saw what happened when Q3 cracked the 50% growth story, well a bad Q4 can collapse it, regardless of how true or false it is. And with Elon needing shares semi propped due to his Twitter adventure, that’s the strongest motivation for maintaining a certain share price.
JSML
Member
It appears to me that the stock price is pricing in 25 to 30 percent annual growth rate. If Tesla achieves 45 percent growth and more importantly give guidance of 40 percent growth or more without significant margin impairement, the stock will pop.
Yeah Tesla was a 300 dollar stock during Q3 and got murdered. We are no longer a 300 dollar stock obviously. We are being priced in for peak demand or whatever.
Interested to hear your reasoning on the disagree here @Krugerrand - you don‘t agree that Tesla is choosing to discount to boost Q4 deliveries? Or you disagree with my preference that they shouldn’t discount and instead wait for Jan 1st when they can sell at full price with the US government picking up the cost of the $7,500 subsidy instead?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Breaking news: Enphase CEO insults the intelligence of his workers, tells them to stop being so stupid. According to persons familiar with the matter, multiple employees say Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman, an immigrant from India, is often over-bearing and rude. He regularly demeans employees when he tells them to "Stop being so stupid". One of them told Investor's Business Daily the entire department is demoralized and productivity suffers under harsh criticisms routinely doled out by the inconsiderate CEO. Also, he recently relocated 150 high-paying Enphase engineering jobs from US soil to his native country of India , without first consulting with the affected engineers or their families. One employee told IBD that his inconsiderate behavior is creating widespread discontent within the company.
/s
Enphase Energy CEO Says You Should 'Stop Doing Stupid Things'
The Enphase CEO has a long name. But his advice for success is short and sweet. It boils down to two traits.
www.investors.com
Enphase Energy CEO Says You Should 'Stop Doing Stupid Things'
This story could have taken such an unfortunate turn for the worse had Chanos shorted Enphase and incentivized Linette Lopez to do a little "investigative journalism". The point is, anyone can be made to look bad, even if they are not doing anything nefarious. This is the power of the media to construct misleading narratives that tend to feed off each other when done over an extended period. Everything most people know about Elon Musk is filtered through the mainstream media.
Your job, as an investor, is to filter out the stuff that doesn't matter. Elon is still the same person who has built multiple multi-billion dollar successes from nothing. He will never stop.
I don't know if this video from Lee has been posted here, but it is so good that it is worth viewing twice, and I did.
If anyone can find a flaw in any of Lee's numbers, please post your reasoning.
I think the 53% (best case) profit margin is too high, but in general Lee is in the right ballpark,
Cars and batteries being at the same per kWh margin is worth considering. Again I don't think Lee is far wrong here, but he might be slightly wrong.
If anyone can find a flaw in any of Lee's numbers, please post your reasoning.
I think the 53% (best case) profit margin is too high, but in general Lee is in the right ballpark,
Cars and batteries being at the same per kWh margin is worth considering. Again I don't think Lee is far wrong here, but he might be slightly wrong.
thesmokingman
Active Member
It's such a good price even Cathy can't say no.
Lee's 53% margin on storage isn't including the installation costs, which would probably bring those margins closer to 30% in the end.
Good video though.
Krugerrand
Meow
‘Tesla really trying to hit Q4 numbers, at the cost of margins here.’
It’s a handful of cars. Literally. Not making a dent in margins.
It’s between one to two weeks or more of output from Fremont & Austin - that’s tens of thousands of cars. There’s a $75m reduction to gross profit for every 10,000 cars with this current discount. Likely at least 20k cars being delivered in US between today and year end.
People receiving cars today are also reporting receiving the discount on their account (even though when they ordered it the discount wasn’t there or was only $3,750)
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Here is what I am hoping.....
1. They are pushing out HW4 for all cars in Jan
2. Model 3 refresh with rear castings in coming with model 3 upgrade.
3. new entry level Model Y with 265 miles and rear wheel drive using 4680 which will crush current model 3 and Y demand.
Again all hopium, but they are not discounting via software upgrades because HW4/FSD is another step change amongst the internal beta cars.
What I am fearing is the board meetings that Elon discussed in the Spaces were real emergencies for the order book disappearing and this is to save the quarter from "disaster" of merely 35% increase in deliveries. I also think this this will either prove or disprove the notion that people actually care about what Elon tweets. As it sits right now the cars are too expensive...they know this and the two week/10 day discount will be their trial run to see where demand sits.
1. They are pushing out HW4 for all cars in Jan
2. Model 3 refresh with rear castings in coming with model 3 upgrade.
3. new entry level Model Y with 265 miles and rear wheel drive using 4680 which will crush current model 3 and Y demand.
Again all hopium, but they are not discounting via software upgrades because HW4/FSD is another step change amongst the internal beta cars.
What I am fearing is the board meetings that Elon discussed in the Spaces were real emergencies for the order book disappearing and this is to save the quarter from "disaster" of merely 35% increase in deliveries. I also think this this will either prove or disprove the notion that people actually care about what Elon tweets. As it sits right now the cars are too expensive...they know this and the two week/10 day discount will be their trial run to see where demand sits.
I am toying with upgrading my 2020 MYLR to a '23 MYP. Demo unit with <1000 miles in SoCal is $59,040 before taxes/title/doc. Advisor I spoke with said they have been slammed since the change to $7500 happened.
To be clear - the standard price of the cars are only too expensive right now because consumers know there is a $7500 subsidy coming into effect 10 days from now.
We have no idea if these discounts would have been necessary if the IRA had not passed.
Well this is something - Canadians also getting a discount now ($5k)
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