Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

might be a great time to be selling puts now. I am indecisive about which dates though. Can someone give me some ideas? I have a lot of dry powder that I am hoping to get assigned all the while I collect these high IV premiums. IV is all time highs of the year

View attachment 888105

Low risk longer horizon
Jan 25 100 puts for like $25
So like 12.5% return if not assigned
If assigned you bought Tesla for 75$

Also you will have a long time till assignment and can come up with the money

If SP bounces up these might not loose value as quickly…
But good option …

Want risk then buying a call might do wonders if SP goes up

Combo…
Think you are buying SP for 100$, but sell the 100 strike PUT
Then take the $25 premium and buy Jan 25 call

Shorter term options if looking for quicker wins but need to be more nimble and more knowledgeable with options….

 

[StealthP3D]

I think Kyle just went the way of the "E for Electric" guy (Byton was his big sponsor). Kyle's big sponsor is Magna, Magna bought Veoneer 2 days ago, Kyle posts video of FSD this morning and the rabbit hole goes deeper still...

I posted more details in the FUD fighting thread.

Kyle went the way of "E for Electric" a long time ago. He's just a little more subtle about it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606077656142794754

 

[gtrplyr1]

Listened to the Twitter "Spaces" interview with Elon.

Here is what I got out of it In a nutshell:

1). Short term seems to be very problematic, don't expect Tesla to beat numbers and they might not even make their numbers.

2) LONG term ... everything is fine and their competitive advantage is going to really pay off.

While he does allude to the fact that they have lots of levers to help with the upcoming predicated downturn .... don't expect blowout numbers anytime soon.

If you can hang on ... you will do well ... if you are on the edge with margin, the next few weeks (months) could be really ugly. I didn't personally walk away from this interview feeling particularly good.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What is the opposite of irrational exuberance?

JPow.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Over the last two days added 150 chairs.

Question, do I need more chairs?

 

[Mengy]

Listened to the Twitter "Spaces" interview with Elon.

Here is what I got out of it In a nutshell:

1). Short term seems to be very problematic, don't expect Tesla to beat numbers and they might not even make their numbers.

2) LONG term ... everything is fine and their competitive advantage is going to really pay off.

While he does allude to the fact that they have lots of levers to help with the upcoming predicated downturn .... don't expect blowout numbers anytime soon.

If you can hang on ... you will do well ... if you are on the edge with margin, the next few weeks (months) could be really ugly. I didn't personally walk away from this interview feeling particularly good.

On one hand it made me happy, but on the other hand it made me utterly dread what's coming in Q4 and 2023. We might be in for a few very hard quarters judging from the things Elon said.

Tesla will be fine and has lots of tools to weather any recession, but I think TSLA is going to hurt for quite some time yet. If we get a bad recession then our margins WILL go down according to Elon. Like possibly very down.

But wow, just think: if things get that bad for Tesla, just IMAGINE how it will be for the likes of Ford and GM....

 

[nativewolf]

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For those wondering about the battery comments I made earlier (competition wise) this is what I am referring to as "competition". CATL is competing directly with Tesla for battery sales. Now since CATL is providing cells to Tesla this seems a bit problematic price wise.

I see something like that every week or so from all over the world. The demand is huge but as CATL produces 34% of the worlds cell capacity I believe that they'll soon move to displace the entities that repackaged their cells and move up the foodchain to service utilities directly. That could be a risk to the energy side of things.

Good news is that the largest Megapack installation in CA will go from 700 MW to 1400 then to 2100 MW over the next 2 years. Just down the road from Lathrop in global terms. The Gemini solar/storage project is in Los Vegas and I believe it will be the largest battery for a brief period of time.

 

[Thekiwi]

$1.2 Billion Gemini Solar+Storage Project To Use 100% CATL Batteries - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! The giant 690 MWac/966 MWdc Gemini solar power project planned for Las Vegas, Nevada, will include 1,416 MWh of energy storage capacity. This will be one of the largest solar+storage projects in the United...

cleantechnica.com

For those wondering about the battery comments I made earlier (competition wise) this is what I am referring to as "competition". CATL is competing directly with Tesla for battery sales. Now since CATL is providing cells to Tesla this seems a bit problematic price wise.

I see something like that every week or so from all over the world. The demand is huge but as CATL produces 34% of the worlds cell capacity I believe that they'll soon move to displace the entities that repackaged their cells and move up the foodchain to service utilities directly. That could be a risk to the energy side of things.

Good news is that the largest Megapack installation in CA will go from 700 MW to 1400 then to 2100 MW over the next 2 years. Just down the road from Lathrop in global terms. The Gemini solar/storage project is in Los Vegas and I believe it will be the largest battery for a brief period of time.

Makes sense - why bother with the middle man when you can take the extra margin for yourself. Hasn’t Panasonic been offering home battery solutions for years also?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon just jumped into a Twitter spaces about Tesla. Gary Black and others on.

Is there a way to find out when Elon drops into a Twitter space?

 

[zach_]

It's important to add context to what Elon said. His comments about negative profits, or significant difficulties with demand, were in the context of a "2008 style" or "worse than 2008" recession. While I personally have concerns about the course of the fed's action, I struggle to find 2008 to be an appropriate comparison in any way. 2008 was as serious as it was largely because our financial system was on the brink of collapse. Massive deflation followed, lending was non existent etc.

In 2008 many people lost their homes, which massively affected their consumption. Housing was massively oversupplied, so when the bubble popped a massive amount of construction jobs were lost, which is a very important sector of the economy. The effect became self fulfilling. Contrast this with today, while yes the rise in mortgage rates will substantially impact the housing market (and it already has). It seems very unlikely it would end up the same way. Lack of ARMs, much more equity in homes, credit/lending standards better, and most importantly we still have yet to see any uptick in the supply of homes needed as a prerequisite to "crash" the housing market.

In addition there is a definite shortage of labor. Covid saw lots of early retirements (I considered myself in this bucket, but we'll see what TSLA does tomorrow) as well as decreases in immigration that we seem unlikely to make up for. The result of this is an economy in which even with decreased demand at the margin, unemployment seems unlikely to rise in a massive way.

Lastly, while I understand Jerome Powell (or Daddy JPow as I affectionately call him), may not be a friend of many here. I think he made recent comments that reveal the fed's mindset quite clearly. He said they aren't too concerned about doing too much, because they showed in 2020 that they have the tools to juice the markets/economy if need be. And quite frankly, I believe him. The Fed/Government stand much more ready to act than they were in 2008.

Long-term, I think Elon is right, deflation is the problem we face. But I think he is combining his long term view on that topic, with the ways in which 2008/9 shaped him (which he referenced on the twitter spaces) to conclude that a deflationary disaster may be on the horizon. This is the context in which he talks about these very negative financial outcomes.

So while I don't think the outcome will be anywhere near as dire as Elon thinks, Tesla as a company will be better for it, as I am sure he will double down on ruthless efficiency.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Is there a way to find out when Elon drops into a Twitter space?

@ElonSpacesTracker has been permanently suspended.

 

[MC3OZ]

Listened to the Twitter "Spaces" interview with Elon.

Here is what I got out of it In a nutshell:

1). Short term seems to be very problematic, don't expect Tesla to beat numbers and they might not even make their numbers.

2) LONG term ... everything is fine and their competitive advantage is going to really pay off.

While he does allude to the fact that they have lots of levers to help with the upcoming predicated downturn .... don't expect blowout numbers anytime soon.

If you can hang on ... you will do well ... if you are on the edge with margin, the next few weeks (months) could be really ugly. I didn't personally walk away from this interview feeling particularly good.

Short term we need to factor in the effect of the discounts of Q4 P&D, margins and the bottom line. My hunch, overall discounts are the right move.

For the recession, Elon may be right or wrong.

If Elon is right about the recession many of Tesla's competitors are in for a world of pain. In the long run Tesla ends up with more market share, at the cost of short term margins and profits.

If Elon is wrong about the recession, Tesla is in great shape, and a share buyback is likely.

Short term the share price is very hard to predict, but a good aim is waiting for the Q4 earnings report.

Why the discounts are a good idea is maximising P&D and revenues. Lowering inventory for the start of 2023 is ideal. If there is a recession, entering the recession with lower inventory is a good idea. If there is no recession, production can still expand to soak up additional demand.,

 

[Thumper]

Had resolved that I had all the TSLA I needed but couldn’t resist the sale and bought another 275 shares.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm starting to think that we'll rally on just about any Q4 print that is a record and shows reasonable growth QoQ.

That's exectly why shortzes have been paying FUDsters for over a year to attack the Tesla growth story. Their attacking the PE multiple typically given to a growth company by lying about Tesla's growth trajectory.

 

[geometro]

It's important to add context to what Elon said. His comments about negative profits, or significant difficulties with demand, were in the context of a "2008 style" or "worse than 2008" recession. While I personally have concerns about the course of the fed's action, I struggle to find 2008 to be an appropriate comparison in any way. 2008 was as serious as it was largely because our financial system was on the brink of collapse. Massive deflation followed, lending was non existent etc.

In 2008 many people lost their homes, which massively affected their consumption. Housing was massively oversupplied, so when the bubble popped a massive amount of construction jobs were lost, which is a very important sector of the economy. The effect became self fulfilling. Contrast this with today, while yes the rise in mortgage rates will substantially impact the housing market (and it already has). It seems very unlikely it would end up the same way. Lack of ARMs, much more equity in homes, credit/lending standards better, and most importantly we still have yet to see any uptick in the supply of homes needed as a prerequisite to "crash" the housing market.

In addition there is a definite shortage of labor. Covid saw lots of early retirements (I considered myself in this bucket, but we'll see what TSLA does tomorrow) as well as decreases in immigration that we seem unlikely to make up for. The result of this is an economy in which even with decreased demand at the margin, unemployment seems unlikely to rise in a massive way.

Lastly, while I understand Jerome Powell (or Daddy JPow as I affectionately call him), may not be a friend of many here. I think he made recent comments that reveal the fed's mindset quite clearly. He said they aren't too concerned about doing too much, because they showed in 2020 that they have the tools to juice the markets/economy if need be. And quite frankly, I believe him. The Fed/Government stand much more ready to act than they were in 2008.

Long-term, I think Elon is right, deflation is the problem we face. But I think he is combining his long term view on that topic, with the ways in which 2008/9 shaped him (which he referenced on the twitter spaces) to conclude that a deflationary disaster may be on the horizon. This is the context in which he talks about these very negative financial outcomes.

So while I don't think the outcome will be anywhere near as dire as Elon thinks, Tesla as a company will be better for it, as I am sure he will double down on ruthless efficiency.

He also indicated that they aren’t going to let up in keeping rates at an elevated level. Basically they want to get inflation down to 2% (unreasonable IMO) and want unemployment to go up.

Do they have the tools? Yes.
Have they blown up the balance sheet and shown a resolve to extinguish inflation? I think so.

I was hoping 2023 wouldn’t be as bad as 2022, but all indications are the next 6-8 months will be rough.

 

[Ogre]

Is there a way to find out when Elon drops into a Twitter space?

There is a small circle of people who are usually included and clue each other in. Sawyer Merritt usually tweets about it fairly quickly. I just saw it on my Twitter feed.

 

[Cryptkeeper]

Drinking helps me. Martinis, preferably.

Crown Royal on the rocks for me.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Listened to the Twitter "Spaces" interview with Elon.

Here is what I got out of it In a nutshell:

1). Short term seems to be very problematic, don't expect Tesla to beat numbers and they might not even make their numbers.

2) LONG term ... everything is fine and their competitive advantage is going to really pay off.

While he does allude to the fact that they have lots of levers to help with the upcoming predicated downturn .... don't expect blowout numbers anytime soon.

If you can hang on ... you will do well ... if you are on the edge with margin, the next few weeks (months) could be really ugly. I didn't personally walk away from this interview feeling particularly good.

i partially disagree.
today's Elon twitter interview was a potential game changer. suppose Elon is correct in 2022 -2023 is similar to 2008-2009. so how much do you think AAPL fell from top to bottom in 2007-2009? -61.48% from 12/2007 through 01/ 2009, approx 14 months
how about AMZN? -65.74% from 10/2007 through 11/2008 approx 13 to 14 months
Baidu fell -76.58% from 11/2007 through 12/2008 over 13 months
Tesla already fell -70% over 14 months
even if it goes down to $97 it's only another 23% down from here
i think Elon put a floor underneath the stock today just like he marked top in Nov 2021 with twitter poll about selling tesla stock.
does not mean today was the exact bottom although it very well may have been
for me worst is already behind
in case i am totally wrong and even if stock falls 80 to 90% as long as it does so in a speedy manner, i am fine because it allows more time for recovery.
i feel great after listening to Elon, especially:
#1 Elon devoting majority of time to Tesla
#2 no further stock sales for 18 to 24 months
#3 Tesla likely to be largest market cap company over next 5 years
i actually reactivated my twitter account after listening to Elon
btw, sounds like Chicken Genius again sold his Tesla with a 7.5% loss in an attempt to better time it
in my opinion those least likely to succeed in generating high level long term returns in market are:
short term market timers
Academics with great eloquence, brilliant style to express amazing sounding great ideas that dazzle the masses

 

[Skipdd]

Tesla Megapack data:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606088837913907200

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I didn’t see this posted and for those who don’t want to read through the raw numbers and do the calculations, the margin is 60%, according to the Twitter poster JamesCat and confirmed by the author of the tweet that @heltok posted. Wowsers.