When is the IRA credit earned? When the cells are made or when they are put in a product and sold?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Just a little flavor to add to this.
This is 2 overlapping factory ramps combined: Fremont and Austin. Plus Fremont just added 4x additional floor space which should allow them to continue expansion there.
This should give us enough capacity for the Cybertruck ramp up and beyond.
That's the X million dollar question, isn't it?
However:
Edit for context
When sold.
However:
So, only stuff made after this year, thus a reason to drag heels a little. (Including stockpiling cells to make into modules)
Edit for context
thesmokingman
Active Member
Good for him I guess? Social media... you get what you sow?
Its a tricky place for the 4680 production right now - they are being used in the off-menu AWD SR Model Y out of Austin (the model Sandy Munro has already done a tear down of months ago), which looks like it gets done in batches in Austin when they have stockpiled enough packs (and then switch the line temporarily from 2170 LR Y production).
thesmokingman
Active Member
That is the difference in the way IP is regarded, and the results are what you have found. It is actually normal over there. They think about IP completely differently from the west. The only way survive in China as a foreigner is to have a product that is sufficiently complicated that they cannot copy it. That is just the facts of the way business is in China, especially Shenzen. You could get product rapid prototyped in a day where it would take months in the west. You can look at the production of bicycles, its like text book should be taught in schools the folly of the way the west thinks. The west has priced themselves out of their own production lmao. And the fancy names in cycling charge 200x what their China produced products costs so it's like a give and take but eventually it turns to take, and that's just the way it is.
petit_bateau
Active Member
There will - imho - come a point during 2023 where they will clone & replicate a third 4680 team at Berlin, as well as the ones currently at Austin and Fremont. Precisely when & where in the qualitative improvement journey and the quantitative machinery journey I am unsure. Mid 2023 and DBE stability perhaps ?
I fully agree. And this in my opinion is why 4680 production will be slow to be introduced to China.
Merry Christmas all you poor (literally) bastards.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
If you don't want Tesla to disrupt multiple industries with the high volumes and low costs of their 4680 cells, then you should probably cry. Because ramping this quickly indicates they haven't hit any unsolvable obstacles yet and the growth of cell production continues unabated. The more quickly they can ramp volumes, the less each cell will cost and the faster the disruption will occur.
About the beginning of May of this year Tesla bragged it had built it's millionth 4680 cell and now, only 8 months later, they are making 3.8 million per month and growing! Even CATL has announced plans to build factories on various continents to produce cells in the 4680 form factor developed by Tesla.
It looks to me like, in the middle of the last decade, Tesla asked Panasonic to develop a larger, more efficient cell for the Model 3 production and the result was the ground-breaking 2170 cell first used in the Model 3. But Tesla felt Panasonic was not willing to push the boundaries of what was possible far enough, maybe Panasonic felt it would be too risky to deviate too much from the 18650 form factor that had been around for nearly 30 years. The 4680 form factor Tesla developed on their own is the first time in automotive history, an automaker had introduced a new cell standard, not a battery manufacturer. And I find it notable that the worlds largest battery manufacturer, CATL, didn't waste much time to jump on the 4680 bandwagon with announcements that they will also be building cells to this standard developed by Tesla. The media didn't pick up on, or highlight, just how notable it was for a car maker to be at the forefront of the battery industry by introducing entirely new cell form factors, a job usually performed by leading battery manufacturers.
It looks like Tesla's 4680 cell standard has a long and prosperous life ahead of it. The Semi is using 2170 cells. If you are so inclined, you may cry now.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
If you don't want Tesla to disrupt multiple industries with the high volumes and low costs of their 4680 cells, then you should probably cry. Because ramping this quickly indicates they haven't hit any unsolvable obstacles yet and the growth of cell production continues unabated. The more quickly they can ramp volumes, the less each cell will cost and the faster the disruption will occur.
About the beginning of May of this year Tesla bragged it had built it's millionth 4680 cell and now, only 8 months later, they are making 3.8 million per month and growing! Even CATL has announced plans to build factories on various continents to produce cells in the 4680 form factor developed by Tesla.
It looks to me like, in the middle of the last decade, Tesla asked Panasonic to develop a larger, more efficient cell for the Model 3 production and the result was the ground-breaking 2170 cell first used in the Model 3. But Tesla felt Panasonic was not willing to push the boundaries of what was possible far enough, maybe Panasonic felt it would be too risky to deviate too much from the 18650 form factor that had been around for nearly 30 years. The 4680 form factor Tesla developed on their own is the first time in automotive history, an automaker had introduced a new cell standard, not a battery manufacturer. And I find it notable that the worlds largest battery manufacturer, CATL, didn't waste much time to jump on the 4680 bandwagon with announcements that they will also be building cells to this standard developed by Tesla. The media didn't pick up on, or highlight, just how notable it was for a car maker to be at the forefront of the battery industry by introducing entirely new cell form factors, a job usually performed by leading battery manufacturers.
It looks like Tesla's 4680 cell standard has a long and prosperous life ahead of it. The Semi is using 2170 cells. If you are so inclined, you may cry now.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Why are you only sending holiday cheer to TMC members who haven't been buying/holding long-term?
Merry Christmas to all TSLA shareholders!
SunCatcher
Member
I counted $9M annual savings for Santa to finally make the switch to EVs. The EV standard in the study was a Model S, however this wouldn't take advantage of the future volume needs being met by Semi as this is written.
If Santa worked with a fleet of Semi's and a mix of short/long range Tesla on FSDeer, They could easily quadruple their savings. I think the Santa Shop should put in for a round of funding - the ROI is so obvious, maybe a 10 bagger long term.
Santa Switching to an EV Sleigh Would Save Him Over $8,000
Santa would save 50% in costs by switching to an EV sleigh, if he were using a gasoline model, as opposed to a Tesla.www.goodnewsnetwork.org
(The comment at bottom... lol, someone actually believes flying reindeer are real. So cut
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
I just got engaged! Let's hope this is the low....
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Tesla Solar Panels Review (2024 Guide)
See why we recommend Tesla for monocrystalline solar panels and how the brand compares in its warranty coverage, cost, and customer reviews.
www.thisoldhouse.com
This review claims
"Tesla Solar Panels
We found it to be the most available provider, serving all 50 states."
But obviously I can't order them (and I've been checking several times a year every year). Anyone have an accurate list of states Tesla will take an order in?
Is this one of those things you can order in Nashville but not Knoxville, or is Tennessee a big No soup for you?
Anyone want to guess what year or decade I would be able to order?
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Congrats! Certainly, if you have a long engagement, you're good. A friend of mine is personally hoping this week is the low...
Yes. BYD doesn't make any real profits on their EVs. If they had say 10 or 20% margins, they would tell everyone.
We typically don't have a FED trying to create a recession at this point though. I'm going to add some crash/yolo puts on the major indexes.This is an interesting video showing the historical market trends for six month downturns like we have seen over the past six months:
Looking back over the past 100 years, historically after six month downwards like we've just had, the market reverses and goes back up about NOW. Three times over the past 100 years this six month gradual downturn has signaled the starting point of an even MORE severe crash (1928, 1940, and 2001).
So the crux is we are now at a make or break point for the market historically. We will either begin to rally up from here OR start a much steeper and very sudden crash to a much lower bottom, which after a few months would instantly reverse and rally straight up like a rocketship.
In other words, looking back over 100 years of data, we are close to bottom now. And, statistically speaking we are nearly AT the bottom, but if we drop further it will be abrupt, violent, deep, and then a few months later hit bottom and blast upwards like a geyser.
We are close now, I think.
On that note, Merry Christmas everyone!!!
Or last week is the low. That’s what my friend prefers.
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