verystandard
Member
Imminent announcement of Tom becomes Chief of Tesla Worldwide Auto Division?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Let's not make ourselves delusional.
China sales are experiencing a bump on the road.
It will work out, but prepare for more huge waves in the $TSLA storm
Edit: added some context:
China sales are experiencing a bump on the road.
It will work out, but prepare for more huge waves in the $TSLA storm
Edit: added some context:
Last edited:
bballshinobi
Member
Here comes $100 lol
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
This is not a demand thing. This is a Covid thing. And will pass.
Todesbuckler
Member
It is probably hard to say what the underlying effect of Covid is.
If we look at the overall NEV market, insured units increased compared to last week:
China PV 12-18 Dec insured units NEV: 162K
China PV 19-25 Dec insured units NEV: 182K
At the same time, we see a decline for Tesla:
12-18 Dec: 10,254
19-25 Dec: 8,915
If this is only due to Covid, I would assume to see the same effect for other NEV cars. However, NEV also includes plug-in-hybrids. Someone mentioned some ending incentives for plug-in-hybrids which could affect their sales close to the end of the year. Furthermore, we don't know how many cars Tesla has available for local deliveries and how much the price decrease affected last week's insured units.
Overall, I assume that Tesla China's sales are currently limited by demand at the current price point of their cars. However, this is still likely a record quarter for local China deliveries. While there are a lot of concerns right now because of demand issues, I think Tesla will manage this just fine in the future. Tesla can decrease prices further or export more cars in the medium term. Either way, margins are good and Tesla is profitable and growing.
If we look at the overall NEV market, insured units increased compared to last week:
China PV 12-18 Dec insured units NEV: 162K
China PV 19-25 Dec insured units NEV: 182K
At the same time, we see a decline for Tesla:
12-18 Dec: 10,254
19-25 Dec: 8,915
If this is only due to Covid, I would assume to see the same effect for other NEV cars. However, NEV also includes plug-in-hybrids. Someone mentioned some ending incentives for plug-in-hybrids which could affect their sales close to the end of the year. Furthermore, we don't know how many cars Tesla has available for local deliveries and how much the price decrease affected last week's insured units.
Overall, I assume that Tesla China's sales are currently limited by demand at the current price point of their cars. However, this is still likely a record quarter for local China deliveries. While there are a lot of concerns right now because of demand issues, I think Tesla will manage this just fine in the future. Tesla can decrease prices further or export more cars in the medium term. Either way, margins are good and Tesla is profitable and growing.
The fly in the ointment is the BYD sales, which seem pretty consistent at ~50k per month, surely they'd be hit by C19 too?
However, as already explained, the bulk of BYD are cheaper cars and/or PHEV's, it's possible the different purchasing demographics are skewed by the recent events - or, for instance, instance the Tesla buyers coming more from the larger cities which have had more C19 restrictions than other parts of the country
Can also be that Tesla saw the C19 mess incoming and decided to allocate more to export in December, which would actually be very smart if it turns out to be the case
Obviously you can't read much into monthly fluctuations in a single territory
verystandard
Member
Anyone have better insights with this? Tool upgrade ? Chinese New Year?
To lower stock price?
Favguy
Member
It will indeed pass, but the usual suspects are going to have a field day with this in the very short term and TSLA is going to get clobbered. I never thought I'd be in this camp, but I'm seeing the horrible possibility of a 2 digit share price incoming. If Q4 is anything less than a stunning blowout they get to play with us for a while yet
Maybe the fact I'm now thinking like this means the bottom really is in though and we're about to see a reversal. Heck, I should sell a few shares, that would guarantee it as my timing sucks balls...
Hence my post from earlier today - Reuters ending up being right about December output slowdown and halt - so ignore the above report regarding January production at your own peril.
I do expect production rate to pick back up to close to pre-Covid levels at giga Shanghai by Q1 end though.
Todesbuckler
Member
Nio is cutting their Q4 delivery outlook citing Covid issues:
ir.nio.com
NIO Inc. Prudently Adjusts Fourth Quarter 2022 Delivery Outlook | NIO Inc.
SHANGHAI, China, Dec. 27, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO) (“NIO” or the “Company”), a pioneer and a leading company in the premium smart electric vehicle market, today provided an updated delivery outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022.
It’s looking like big down day today again (down 2% pre market already ), FUD loving this china stuff . I have no money left to buy so a bit down as hate missing deals that keep coming. Good luck to those that have the cash.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Decrease in reservations may be due to Tesla banning resellers/touts from selling reservations:-
verystandard
Member
That's a longer slowdown than I would expect, particularly with no major upgrades known about. It would be useful to know if this is driven by supply chain issues, COVID issues, logistics issues or something else.
Berlin and Austin still appear to be ramping hard so it's unlikely to be an aggregate demand issue.
verystandard
Member
At this point I really hope Tesla Shanghai shutdown is related to production line/hardware upgrade for the Model 3 revamp. We need good news
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