Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gtrplyr1]

There are plenty of first hand accounts on TMC of people canceling orders and/or saying they will not buy again. You can weigh the impact of those claims but it's not just an assumption.

. I’m long but it’s simply a fact that the shine on tesla has diminished due to elons outspoken opinions .

 

[gtrplyr1]

Just sold positions in two other equities to free up some capital. I just can’t use it to buy more Tsla right now …. Prob picking up some aapl

Tsla is being unfairly punished … it’s an amazing company, but I’m not sold on the fact that this sell off is complete yet

 

[insaneoctane]

Does Elon or anybody else at Tesla know of a public way they can communicate what is really going on?

The silence (maybe waiting for quarterly conference call?) creates an opportunity for FUD slingers to gain massive ground in the absence of facts. When the SP gets pummeled this much, why wouldn't Tesla offer the stockholders something? I'm writing this as the stock is down another 9% at $111...

 

[TrendTrader007]

Is there difference of recovery potential in a bull vs bear market?

Sounds like right now all bets are off. Just like bulls had lots of fun in 2020- 2021 , bears having fun. Chalk up entire 2022 to bears
Personally I’m down enough money to buy a freaking 747
One day,in not too distant future this will end
Maybe in 5 years I’ll buy a private jet or apply for social services assistance
Who knows
All I know is that I’m not stupid enough to sell here even if it goes to $87 or whatever

 

[EverettRuess]

The silence (maybe waiting for quarterly conference call?) creates an opportunity for FUD slingers to gain massive ground in the absence of facts. When the SP gets pummeled this much, why wouldn't Tesla offer the stockholders something? I'm writing this as the stock is down another 9% at $111...

All they have to say is that covid is a problem. We shut down because we might as well use the Chinese new year to retool. Shut off this FUD and then deal with new FUD that is sure to come along.

 

[AndrewZ]

As usual the answer lies in your time horizon.

Don’t listen to me.

IMO buying here means great returns unless Tesla sales growth stops and grinds down into future.

Well my time horizon is so long that I’m arguing to not even bother buying yet lol, I don’t think the opportunities are over

Margin is unwinding pretty hard right now, go take a gander at the Options thread. We’re likely headed into a worse economy into 2023, so I’m not sure what we’ll see for upward catalysts right now against all the negative stuff that is happening and can still happen.

I’m not buying shares on the backs of margin calls or people trying to evade margin calls, I’ll buy when the margin has all but fully unwound

 

[Nate the Great]

A few concerns I have about the end of Q delivery rush:

- Will the winter storm in the US have a negative impact on deliveries during the last week of the year? Or is the worst weather limited to states where usually not a lot of Teslas are sold? And how about Canada?

- Now that a Covid-tsunami is sweeping across China and millions have to self-isolate, will less people be able to pick up their car? I guess it’s better than lockdowns though.

- Delays at sea and a lack of transport trucks are messing up the delivery timeline of the cars on the last two ships to arrive in Europe (Belgium) this year. Now that one ship has docked and the other one is about to, hopefully Tesla can find ways to speed up deliveries (like pick-up at the harbor).

Right_Said_Fred

What is your take on current market conditions?

Has Elon commented on it?

Are you trading options through it?

Thank you,

 

[Favguy]

Just sold positions in two other equities to free up some capital. I just can’t use it to buy more Tsla right now …. Prob picking up some aapl

Tsla is being unfairly punished … it’s an amazing company, but I’m not sold on the fact that this sell off is complete yet

I think this is going to continue for the rest of the week

We might get some relief in the new year once we've heard the final numbers, but then again, they're no longer likely to be outstanding, just very good, so I can see this continuing until we're well sub $100. I wish us all well.

 

[SOULPEDL]

my friend stop being delusional. there is a SINGLE public stock out there where any shareholder ever said it was bullish that a CEO dumps billions in stock to fund other ventures. it is scary how much personal emotions many are displaying in this thread. it really is a cult

You're dam right it's a cult. But not with blinders or reasons as you suggest. I doubt this will make sense to you, but here goes.

IMO, a few months ago, TSLA went submarine in stealth mode while the Hurricane was visibly larger than expected (JPow). Beauty of it is that nobody knows what's up their sleeve. The pace of innovation did not just stop, but we've been held in the dark now for at least a quarter. We have no clue when 4680s show up in vehicles, no idea when FSDeer will be used for profit somewhere in the world. No clue what the cost of a Model 2 would be or when they will start them - that demand would be insane, and it appears not needed yet or it would have happened long a go. No clue on Robots in the production plan, or even how many Semi's will be used internally to drive up margins even more, while most don't even have margins, lol, and going negative as we migrate to BEV.

I could go on with more examples for this innovation incubator as I try to become one myself. THAT's my connection with TSLA. It's the Factory for me, combined with all the AI progress. I am humbled - but then again, I only worked in and around Manufacturing at Intel for 23 yrs. Tesla automating with robots puts that to shame. And to think the robots will need to see, it seems we won't have that Lights-out Factory after all.

If any part of this is confusing or new, that is expected; this is alien tech on many levels. Meanwhile, are OEMs still using the CAN Network in cars, or did they migrate to Windows finally?

 

[rallykeeper]

Well, I hope this is relevant to the stock - it has bearing on how the incentives are moving inventory.
I had an order for a Model Y in since July 28th this year. It got put on hold until Jan 1 by Tesla when I failed to proceed to arrange for delivery when notified of it's availability this year (a few months earlier than planned)

Due to the incentives I decided to try to get my car, any car, this year. I was advised to just order a car that was listed in inventory as the likelihood of getting my order in queue and delivered in time was slim to nil. I planned to cancel my original order once another car was secured.

It is frustrating dealing with text messages as the sole way to communicate with sales staff, primarily because I was communicating with 3 or 4 people, none of whom identified themselves when posting a question to me. My situation was unique, I had an original order now on hold but not closed out, and cars in 2 locations in the Bay Area that I was willing/attempting to take but it was unclear if I had captured either one going by the website and low level sales people who were frankly confused and confusing the situation.

I got a call today from an obviously elevated position Rep who could both access the data and knew the correct answers. I had been stuck with completing the required documents in the App/Website for either car, as I was taking delivery in CA but residence, insurance and registration will be in WA. The system couldn't handle any of that and it was getting very Medieval gymkhana of an effort to get home with a car. But there is competency at higher levels in Tesla, and all is smooth going at this point.

To sum up; If you weren't aware, the incentives sparked a bonfire of buying, there are NO Teslas available in the US at this point.
Except for one Model Y at Sunnyvale if you move very quickly tomorrow morning ;-).

Counterpoint anecdote.

I had a May 2023 estimated Model X delivery (and don't need a car any earlier).

2 weeks ago, Tesla reached out to see if I wanted to take a non-matching car for early delivery. I declined.

5 days later, Tesla upped the offer to include the 10k miles. I declined.

7 days later (on Christmas Eve), Tesla assigned me a VIN.

Yesterday morning, Tesla told me I had to schedule delivery this week. After some back and forth, they offered to release the car and extend my hold to March 1.

Last night, they rescinded and would only extend the hold until January 1 (i.e., 7 days from VIN assignment). I've gotten 3 "schedule a delivery now" texts since.

They now have 13 inventory non-performance Model X's (not counting my assigned VIN, which should appear soon), within 50 miles of me in Southern California. None of them have FSD (as used to be the norm at quarter end) or even enhanced auto-pilot. (btw, they have 18 Xs within 50 miles of Sunnyvale!).

I've been watching this for a very long time (and have personally purchased 5 Teslas at quarter-end over the past 10 years). I have no other conclusion than that late December demand has collapsed (at least in California). (Model X supply doesn't magically increase).

I'm not going to extrapolate for January and beyond (the confusion around the IRA is rampant), but I'm wary...

Update on wttlloyd's note on Y availability in the Bay Area: As of this morning, I count 32 Model Y's available for December delivery within 50 miles of Sunnyvale....

 

[TrendTrader007]

Thanks for this. What's your strategy from here, TT?... Been following you on Twitter and seem to recall you got off margin maybe a few months ago (good move). As I explained in another thread, I am in the (much too late) process of biting the bullet today. Sadly sold a big chuck of shares in premarket, to hopefully buy back my underwater puts when market opens.

Probably foolish to think about trying to recoup these losses/lost shares, but the thought had crossed my mind of converting some shares to LEAPS awaiting the eventual slingshot back up. Will let things settle a bit, but just trying to thing about what alternatives are out there to eventually take advantage of big bounce back.

I’m doing nothing. I have been wrong, very wrong and now profoundly wrong.
I’m just not smart enough to time this thing
I am sitting tight with hundred percent of my taxable portfolio in January 2025 $150 leaps and 100% of tax free in TSLA common stock
My worst case scenario is I lose all my money in taxable which goes to zero but if I get even 30% return from $112 Tesla stock price over next 10 years I would have enough money that I really don’t care
So I’m just going along for the ride
Not financial advice

 

[verystandard]

. I’m long but it’s simply a fact that the shine on tesla has diminished due to elons outspoken opinions .

Egg first or chicken first. Same as Stock price vs Elon. Lots of dismay with Elon are directly from stock price IMO.
If TSLA still trade at 260 lots of people will still think Elon is funny and buying his *sugar* Burnt Hair Cologne. Right now that burnt hair thing is just a like salt to the wound.

The production number that we got last night could've been having treated better if there actually is a functional PR dept. I hope when Tom took over Tesla as CEO as if the rumor stated, he will be able to bring in some PR to counteract the massive bear force that we are constantly endured. This has been the toughest months I've ever experience in terms of stock, and thank god I didn't utilize options or margins.

Face it all, TSLA's $300 was a bubble and now it popped. Hopefully with this wiped out, TSLA's foundation can be built in much more solid ground and it will becomes a better stock than what currently is (Instead of trading it as if I'm getting in GME or AMC)

 

[Singuy]

Well my time horizon is so long that I’m arguing to not even bother buying yet lol, I don’t think the opportunities are over

Margin is unwinding pretty hard right now, go take a gander at the Options thread. We’re likely headed into a worse economy into 2023, so I’m not sure what we’ll see for upward catalysts right now against all the negative stuff that is happening and can still happen.

I’m not buying shares on the backs of margin calls or people trying to evade margin calls, I’ll buy when the margin has all but fully unwound

The best catalyst is the bottom..lol.

Seriously tho, the chance of a stock going up is higher and higher as we hit ATL. Shorts will have to cover and take profit. There has never in history got rich because they were longing a shorting position and hodl for 30 years..lol. if that person exist then they are down 99%.

The beginning of the bull market was March 2009. Did anyone in 2009 felt like the world was heading to a rosy place?

 

[15Peter20]

Does Tmc have a max amount of people that can be put on ignore?

It’s the same person so it probably doesn’t matter.

 

[MD70]

How much shares does Musk have as collateral and at what price will he be forced to sell?

 

[Beltsbear]

When the CEO explains that it is to free up cash in case of a bad recession, then yes it is a good sign. For Tesla, the company. He has no fear that Tesla will struggle during the recession, but the same can't be said for certain other ventures of his.

The last sales were NOT to free up cash for TSLA but to free up cash at the expense of TSLA for something else that must not be named. TSLA currently has $21 billion on hand now and is increasing not decreasing at the current moment.
But that all is secondary to me.... I am primarily upset in the way Elon has decided to sell. He could be using dark pools to sell without dropping the price and would have ended up with more money that way, without upsetting the share price as much.

 

[MP3Mike]

Does Tmc have a max amount of people that can be put on ignore?

Yes. (At least in the past I have seen someone complain of hitting the limit.)

 

[Nocturnal]

This is either one of the best opportunities in market history or we are all idiots.

I’m 90% sure I’m not an idiot.

 

[verystandard]

How much shares does Musk have as collateral and at what price will he be forced to sell?

I don't think Elon musk will be forced to sell even if shares goes to two digit as he seems fully prepared for Broadcomm scenerio with TSLA (Also he specifically stated he is definitely not selling at 2023)

 

[2daMoon]

I'm okay with TSLA going back to being a "meme stock" as soon as possible, as long as Tesla keeps producing quantifiable disruption at a pace greater than what is necessary to justify the meme.