Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Wait isn't that we all expecting Tom Zhu to become CEO of Tesla, at least for the automotive section? I hope when he does comes in, he will also brings in the PR team to tackle the FUD 24/7

I don't subscribe to the idea that Tesla needs to do something (or do something differently) to fix the share price. The company is fine, it needs to keep doing what it has already proven it can do best. Tackling the FUD 24/7 would only make Tesla look like they were constantly on the defensive and the very act of responding to each new accusation would lend credibility to those accusations. Rember, Tesla has already flown high in the face of unprecedented FUD in 2019 and 2020. The share price recovery just needs time for Tesla to continue performing and for investors to figure out how they've been duped by relentless negative media stories that are nothing more than noise about nothing important. Many people have been duped by repetitive stories that appear to reinforce one another.

If the media was doing their job, they would be reporting on the amazing successes of Tesla, which are numerous and transformational, not throwing questionable shade on them and ignoring their biggest successes. They should be reporting on Tesla's productivity and industry leading margins resulting from building EV's at a lower production cost than legacy auto can build a gas-powered car with similar performance and specs. They should be doing investigative journalism to try to quantify how many road deaths and accidents may have been prevented by Tesla's transformational Autopilot being used on our nation's highways. The media should be exploring interesting stories about how highway traffic patterns may be calmed and flow better on highways that see a high adoption of Autopilot usage. We could use more articles in the business section of urban newspapers about how other businesses are emulating some of the methods that have been working so well at Tesla. Not covering meaningless tweets and applying guilt by association. This is how investors have been duped. Biased media. Tackling the FUD 24/7 is not going to convert the media, it's going to make them double down and use Tesla's words against them.

Time will fix it because investors are greedy, there will be no more profit to the downside, and TSLA is no longer ahead of itself, but behind. As investors figure this out, Tesla will go on its third major bull run in company history. This will not take nearly as long as the four or five years between the first two bull runs because Tesla is solidly profitable now and their trajectory is becoming easier to see in the numbers that reflect a logarithmic growth rate. A recession will even highlight this very fact, as Tesla's numbers will look impressive relative to legacy auto and the differences between the two will be clearer than ever. The first two times TSLA went on a bull run, many new millionaires were minted, and the third time will mint more millionaires than ever. Looking at a 20-year TSLA stock chart in 2030, this bear move will be but an insignificant blip on a standard chart, you will need a logarithmic chart if you want anyone to understand how crazy this bear run really was.

Tesla just needs to continue doing what they have already proven they can do better than legacy auto and the valuations will fall back into line. In time, energy, AI, autonomy and Optimus will probably surprise them as well.

 

[15Peter20]

Below €100 on the German exchange now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yea, remember back when they all laughed at him...?
cbsnews.com 6-reasons-why-i-wouldnt-touch-tsla-ipo

Fisker Automotive. That's serious delirious competition.

Lol. "see-bs", name checks out ...

Cheers!

 

[ToTheStars]

Seeing this in twitter about raising short interest in TSLA (Dated 2022-12-23), anyone can compare how many are there vs previous records?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607983029154373634

View attachment 889502

Does this number take stock splits into account?

 

[MC3OZ]

Watch the excellent Peter Lynch video, then consider how Tesla as a business is tracking, how their products compare to the competition, and if earnings are likely to grow.

 

[heltok]

I don't subscribe to the idea that Tesla needs to do something (or do something differently) to fix the share price. The company is fine, it needs to keep doing what it has already proven it can do best. Tackling the FUD 24/7 would only make Tesla look like they were constantly on the defensive and the very act of responding to each new accusation would lend credibility to those accusations. Rember, Tesla has already flown high in the face of unprecedented FUD in 2019 and 2020. The share price recovery just needs time for Tesla to continue performing and for investors to figure out how they've been duped by relentless negative media stories that are nothing more than noise about nothing important. Many people have been duped by repetitive stories that appear to reinforce one another.

If the media was doing their job, they would be reporting on the amazing successes of Tesla, which are numerous and transformational, not throwing questionable shade on them and ignoring their biggest successes. They should be reporting on Tesla's productivity and industry leading margins resulting from building EV's at a lower production cost than legacy auto can build a gas-powered car with similar performance and specs. They should be doing investigative journalism to try to quantify how many road deaths and accidents may have been prevented by Tesla's transformational Autopilot being used on our nation's highways. The media should be exploring interesting stories about how highway traffic patterns may be calmed and flow better on highways that see a high adoption of Autopilot usage. We could use more articles in the business section of urban newspapers about how other businesses are emulating some of the methods that have been working so well at Tesla. Not covering meaningless tweets and applying guilt by association. This is how investors have been duped. Biased media. Tackling the FUD 24/7 is not going to convert the media, it's going to make them double down and use Tesla's words against them.

Time will fix it because investors are greedy, there will be no more profit to the downside, and TSLA is no longer ahead of itself, but behind. As investors figure this out, Tesla will go on its third major bull run in company history. This will not take nearly as long as the four or five years between the first two bull runs because Tesla is solidly profitable now and their trajectory is becoming easier to see in the numbers that reflect a logarithmic growth rate. A recession will even highlight this very fact, as Tesla's numbers will look impressive relative to legacy auto and the differences between the two will be clearer than ever. The first two times TSLA went on a bull run, many new millionaires were minted, and the third time will mint more millionaires than ever. Looking at a 20-year TSLA stock chart in 2030, this bear move will be but an insignificant blip on a standard chart, you will need a logarithmic chart if you want anyone to understand how crazy this bear run really was.

Tesla just needs to continue doing what they have already proven they can do better than legacy auto and the valuations will fall back into line. In time, energy, AI, autonomy and Optimus will probably surprise them as well.

Yeah, not worried. 2023 will bring IRA, ramp of Austin, Berlin and Lathrop, ramp of 4680, new demo of Optimus, Dojo buildout, Cybertruck, Semi, FSD getting closer and to more countries, 25k demo, new giga factory announcements etc etc. At some point profits will be too huge to ignore. Wallstreet will probably always be a few years behind fundamentals of TSLA so there will never be a good time to exit, so just take some profits along the way, cash out 10% every time TSLA 10x or whatever and enjoy the ride until we die.

 

[Matias]

I don't think that Musk will do permanent damage to Tesla brand, because he will either
a)fix his behaviour
or
b)be removed

Remember, 90% of TSLA is not in Musk's hands.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

More on China (again)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608012399721984001

 

[MD70]

I’m not sure if this is common knowledge, but Sir Isaac Newton—one of the worlds most renowned scientists and mathematicians—was into alchemy. Not like “Alchemy is just chemistry”, but alchemy as in “I’m going to make the Philosophers stone, transmute lead into gold, and gain immortality”.

It wasn’t like he went over the deep end one day and went senile after he was the bad-ass scientist and mathematician he is known for being, he was both into the absurd—alchemy—and he was one of the greatest thinkers of all times. All… at the same time.

Newton kept his alchemy a dark secret because it was hugely controversial, illegal, and dangerous to dabble in alchemy (because… immortality and turning lead into gold is worth a couple bucks). But he wrote long treatises and transcribed books into his personal library in code.

Top thinker of his time. A little bit looney on the side. But still went down in history as one of the greatest minds of his time. When we talk about walking on the shoulders of giants… he is one of them.

Isaac Newton: The World's Most Famous Alchemist

Podcast Transcript Most people know of Isaac Newton as one of the world’s foremost mathematicians and physicists. Listeners of this podcast might also know that he was inadvertently responsible for the creation of the gold

everything-everywhere.com

Heard this on a podcast. Not usually the sort of thing I would share here, but I feel it’s appropriate. Take away your own interpretations.

100% agree. Also Newton suffered losses from investing in the south sea bubble and allegedly said that he could:“calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people”

Unfortunately we live in an era where some people are all in or all against people and not accept that people can excel in one field and be completely wrong in another.

 

[Matias]

I’m not sure if this is common knowledge, but Sir Isaac Newton—one of the worlds most renowned scientists and mathematicians—was into alchemy. Not like “Alchemy is just chemistry”, but alchemy as in “I’m going to make the Philosophers stone, transmute lead into gold, and gain immortality”.

It wasn’t like he went over the deep end one day and went senile after he was the bad-ass scientist and mathematician he is known for being, he was both into the absurd—alchemy—and he was one of the greatest thinkers of all times. All… at the same time.

Newton kept his alchemy a dark secret because it was hugely controversial, illegal, and dangerous to dabble in alchemy (because… immortality and turning lead into gold is worth a couple bucks). But he wrote long treatises and transcribed books into his personal library in code.

Top thinker of his time. A little bit looney on the side. But still went down in history as one of the greatest minds of his time. When we talk about walking on the shoulders of giants… he is one of them.

Isaac Newton: The World's Most Famous Alchemist

Podcast Transcript Most people know of Isaac Newton as one of the world’s foremost mathematicians and physicists. Listeners of this podcast might also know that he was inadvertently responsible for the creation of the gold

everything-everywhere.com

Heard this on a podcast. Not usually the sort of thing I would share here, but I feel it’s appropriate. Take away your own interpretations.

You need to put this alchemy thing in the context of the time when he lived. He lived in an era, when people were still executed for witchcraft.

 

[CYBRTRK420]

TSLA dipped below 100,00 EUR on German exchange this morning, then triggered a large buy-wave and went back up to 102. Now below 100,00 again. Roughly -3.5% so far.

 

[jamaatta]

More on China (again)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608012399721984001

So Reuters was incorrect. Again.

 

[Max Plaid]

Really! Don’t be surprised if the guy is voted out within a year
Good Riddance
And I say this for simple reason that CEO is clearly not acting in best interest of shareholders and breaching his fiduciary duty by acting in a manner that is causing direct damages to shareholders
We need someone like Tim Cook. This fellow is best suited to run his social media platform

I guess we must be near the bottom when long-term mega-bulls are calling for Musk to be ousted

Although I completely agree that Musk's seeming total lack of concern for Tesla shareholders is very disappointing, we also need to remember that it was thanks to his character and dogged perseverance that we got into this position to lose money in the first place

TBH I lay more blame with Tesla BoD, I called them out months ago and was attacked for it

What would I like to see from here - a COO, as we've been asking for many years now, this person to be the de-facto CEO in the future. Maybe it will be Tom, who knows, but someone to manage the daily stuff, keep Musk for the vision and leadership role only

And yes, I would like clear communication from Tesla. We see this from other auto companies when they close production, instead with Tesla we hear it form MSM, "persons familiar with matters", so naturally the worst-case is promulgated

I heard Musk owns a social media company, seems strange to me the his other companies don't use it more

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yea, remember back when they all laughed at him...?

Tesla (TSLA) IPO: 6 Reasons Why I Wouldn't Touch It

Just over a year ago, Tesla was using advance down-payment orders for its $109K electric Roadster to keep the company afloat. A lot has changed since then, but not as much as you'd think, given today's $250 million IPO. Can you say irrational exuberance? Dot-com bubble?

www.cbsnews.com

Talk about troll hard lmao. Oh and that competition, that SLS sold like 9 cars lol. PPL need to look back to the past to see what serious BS Musk and co. were going up against. And in a lot of ways its the same now, wth does he know about texting and software huh? HUH??

Truly remarkable that the same "concerns" are still being thrown up over a dozen years later - part time CEO, competition is coming.

At least the manufacturing and economic arguments have been mostly put to bed.

 

[nativewolf]

So Reuters was incorrect. Again.

But basically correct again. And since Tesla China has some issues and there is no Tesla PR dept to coordinate messaging you have Tesla China messaging late and without impact.


All of which makes me concerned re the Tesla China top guy having leadership role for Tesla global.

 

[nativewolf]

I guess we must be near the bottom when long-term mega-bulls are calling for Musk to be ousted

Although I completely agree that the seeming total lack of concern for Tesla shareholder is very disappointing, we also need to remember that it was thanks to his character and dogged perseverance that we got into this position to lose money in the first place

TBH I lay more blame with Tesla BoD, I called them out months ago and was attacked for it

What would I like to see from here - a COO, as we've been asking for many years now, this person to be the de-facto CEO in the future. Maybe it will be Tom, who knows, but someone to manage the daily stuff, keep musk for the vision and leadership role only

And yes, I would like clear communication from Tesla. We see this from other auto companies when they close production, instead with Tesla we hear it form MSM, "persons familiar with matters", so naturally the worst-case is promulgated

I heard Musk owns a social media company, seems strange to me the his other companies don't use it more

The lack of a PR dept is destroying tens if not hundreds in investor wealth.

I am not sure right now if a coo is enough, nor if the head of Tesla China is the right guy.

 

[nativewolf]

Truly remarkable that the same "concerns" are still being thrown up over a dozen years later - part time CEO, competition is coming.

At least the manufacturing and economic arguments have been mostly put to bed.

What is remarkable is that a company with Tesla financials is getting slaughtered because huge investors have had enough. They know they can’t buy better fundamentals, so why sell? Nobody is driving the ship.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The total loss of perspective for some people in this thread, almost bordering on insanity, is astonishing to see. And sad too. Is that what the (real or paper) loss of a lot of money does? The feeling of helplessness? The inability to change the big forces (Elon, media, politics, hedge funds, global forces) that determine the stock price? I wish that everyone who is currently in panick mode could take a step back and be able to put things in perspective. This is temporary, this will pass.

What if it doesn't pass and TSLA drops to -$500 and I have to sell my house and my dog and suffer the lifelong regret that I had made it, lost it, then sold out as others made it.

 

[Max Plaid]

My investment thesis is unchanged: the transition to EV cars is unstoppable, and Tesla is the EV leader, with strong margins and a culture of continuous innovation.

Admittedly, in the last six months, two risk factors have increased. In terms of competitors, BYD has emerged as a more serious competitor, at least in China. And the risk of brand impairment from Musk’s extra-Tesla behavior has increased with his Twitter purchase.

At the same time, upside potential in the past six months has also increased, with solid progress in FSD and Tesla energy.

The risk of recession has been there since before six months, and the severity of any recession is still unknowable, and is likely to be short term.

Net it all out, I’m just as bullish about the future of Tesla and TSLA as I was six months ago, or before.

Similar to what was said by a poster earlier today, either I’m stupid, or the market for TSLA is now totally irrational.

It would be the first time in my life I’ve been this stupid.

It is definitely not the first time the market has been this irrational.

There could be 10x BYD out there, doesn't matter - there's no "EV market", just the car market, and it's huge... sure, you would expect ICE to survive a while in less developed countries, but many countries now have legislation banning new sales, just a matter of time

The TAM for EV's is huge, Tesla can growth 50% until 2030 and still not be the biggest player, I really don't worry about competition, in fact it's necessary, Tesla cannot enable the transition away from ICE all by themselves

And I do think the compact hatch-back needs to arrive sooner rather than later, can make 2x the amount of the M3 with half the batteries, same margins, would accelerate EV adoption massively for urban areas. M3 is nice and all that, but still too big to cities and impractical being a sedan

 

[CorneliusXX]

What is remarkable is that a company with Tesla financials is getting slaughtered because huge investors have had enough. They know they can’t buy better fundamentals, so why sell? Nobody is driving the ship.

Nobody has ever been driving the ship according to the original article and it's navigated it's way to being an industry leader and a financial powerhouse. Probably just got lucky with the currents.