Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

Edit: Without COVID forced shutdowns and supply chain issues YoY growth would have been well above 50%, but next year probably less than 50%. Short term distruptions affect changes in YoY growth, but have no effect on long term average growth. As it is impossible to predict force majeure events, it makes sense to target average growth over a few years.

Yes indeed.
But I am not a day or options trader so all this noise about quarterly growth targets/promises/blah-blah-blah does not affect me. Trading on noise is a fool's errand.

 

[2daMoon]

Speaking of fool's errands, here's a little secret, and I don't know whether it can be correlated, but the last couple of days I've either built trail or rode my E-mtb and I have noticed this odd color on the NASDAQ page for TSLA when I have returned.

So, I'm going out again later this morning to see if the trend is really my friend.

In the mean time I'll let the TA folks chew on this data(?) and look forward to seeing what their tea leaves might say about cause/effect.

I'm all about taking one for the team if it helps.

HODL

 

[Artful Dodger]

What prevents Tesla to re-introduce the Lemur for IRA purposes? For both Model 3 and Y?
Nothing I guess.

The 66 KWh LFP pack in the current SR+ is already both less expensive and longer ranged than the now retired Lemur pack, which was based on a reduced cell-count of NCA chemistry 2170s.

A side benefit is because both the LR 2170 pack and the SR+ LFP pack have similar total weights, so Tesla can simplify inventory for suspension parts (ie: coil spring ratings).

Besides, every 2170 cell you put where an CATL LFP cell could serve just as well is a 2170 cell that won't be used in a Semi.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What prevents Tesla to re-introduce the Lemur for IRA purposes? For both Model 3 and Y?
Nothing I guess.

LeMur could qualify, but let's see what the market needs mostly.
I don't see any upside from chasing the credits, when the target clearly moves around Tesla as a part of the music.

 

[GOVA]

I was really impressed by video from inside Giga Shanghai. Great organization, tidy workers and that food court!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Doesn't seem to be... Perhaps people are buying in anticipation of a good P/L report??

... and shortsellers closing their positions. Staying short the stock with the P/D report coming out before the next trading day requires big cojones (and a small brain).

 

[ShareLofty]

Not sure if posted yet but in the FAQ Treasury officials indicated that imported EVs from Europe and Asia can qualify for up to $7,500 tax credit through the commercial vehicle clause in the law if they are leased. Should make Korea and the EU happy

 

[NicoV]

The 66 KWh LFP pack in the current SR+ is already both less expensive and longer ranged than the now retired Lemur pack, which was based on a reduced cell-count of NCA chemistry 2170s.

A side benefit is because both the LR 2170 pack and the SR+ LFP pack have similar total weights, so Tesla can simplify inventory for suspension parts (ie: coil spring ratings).

Besides, every 2170 cell you put where an CATL LFP cell could serve just as well is a 2170 cell that won't be used in a Semi.

I didn’t mean that specific pack, but just the general idea of fitting a model with range between the SR+ and the LR. Assuming that it would be worth the trouble to increase the demand versus just lowering the price of the LR to below the $55K.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I didn’t mean that specific pack, but just the general idea of fitting a model with range between the SR+ and the LR. Assuming that it would be worth the trouble to increase the demand versus just lowering the price of the LR to below the $55K.

Hmm, I think the Model Y RWD with the LFP pack likely came in near that price level. It was offered for sale only briefly, then withdrawn because Tesla could not produce enough cars to meet demand for just the high-end trims. Certainly, Tesla could reintroduce a similar spec Model Y if that makes sense from a sales pt-of-view.

Personally, I like the concept of adding air-suspension to the LR AWD Model Y so it qualifies for the IRA subsidy w/o lowering the MSRP (or Tesla's gross margins).

Cheers!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Your don't know that. V2 and V3 in Europe are software and hardware CCS compatible. It could be that in NA all that is needed is an adapter and app configuration change.

Yes. I’m not referring to europe. I’m referring to North America.

 

[Nocturnal]

I’d be shocked if Tesla had not modeled out any possible interpretation of the IRA and had plans to capitalize on whatever came out.

It’s not hard to add weight to a vehicle. How much does a heavy (removable) spare tire weigh?

 

[SOULPEDL]

If CT was already in production, IRA rule would say truck can’t be triangular

I think they're saving CT for a military classification. /s

 

[cliff harris]

I just caved in and bought another 1,000 shares. This price is just TOO good.
A combination of the news regarding the IRA tax credit, Elons message to employees, and the elephant-in-the-room that is lathrop just made this a crazy-good investment. I sold some other stock so I could grab more TSLA.

I'm definitely over invested now, and may take some small profits at $250 when we inevitably hit it again, but holding > 75% of my stake long term (at least 3 more years).

First cybertrucks in customers hands is going to be a WTF moment for the man-in-the-street.

 

[Artful Dodger]

【Dec.30.2022】The last update of this year Wish us all the best in 2023\Giga shanghai\4K \502 | WuWa (2 hrs ago)

 

[NicoV]

Hmm, I think the Model Y RWD with the LFP pack likely came in near that price level. It was offered for sale only briefly, then withdrawn because Tesla could not produce enough cars to meet demand for just the high-end trims. Certainly, Tesla could reintroduce a similar spec Model Y if that makes sense from a sales pt-of-view.

Personally, I like the concept of adding air-suspension to the LR AWD Model Y so it qualifies for the IRA subsidy w/o lowering the MSRP (or Tesla's gross margins).

Cheers!

That MIC Model Y RWD is sold in Europe for 50K. It would be super if Tesla could produce it in the USA at similar price and margins. But a dual motor version, with bit longer range, qualifying for the IRA would be even better. I’d also love an air-suspension on the Model Y, I’d trade in our Model 3 immediately for an air-suspension Model Y. IIRC, Elon tweeted long a ago that that would be a possibility. Maybe Tesla didn’t introduce it out of fear of cannibalizing the Model S/X sales.

 

[dgodfrey]

Is it just me that finds a subsidy being applied because car A is heavier than car B? Should be the opposite, efficiency should be rewarded, base it on form factor/passenger/load capacity, but weight??

It's possible that the wording was some vestigial tail from Section 179 of the IRS Tax Code.

Pineapple Money - Money Made Simple

When purchasing a vehicle for your business, it's essential to look for those that will give your business an economic benefit and a tax credit at the end of the year.

www.pineapplemoney.com

"The IRS has a federal tax code that allows the business owner a deduction tax credit from any vehicle used for a business operation to deduct up to $25,000 of a vehicle's price. The vehicle eligible for tax saving should not weigh less than 6,000 pounds, as per the gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR), and not more than 14,000 pounds. The vehicle in question should be used to qualify for the section 179 Tax Deduction for business purposes. The tax deduction encourages entrepreneurs to invest in their businesses by buying new vehicles to help their economic development."

The Model X qualified for this as I tried to convince my company to get one as a company car.

Edit: I see Artful Dodger was already on this.

 

[MP3Mike]

I’d be shocked if Tesla had not modeled out any possible interpretation of the IRA and had plans to capitalize on whatever came out.

It’s not hard to add weight to a vehicle. How much does a heavy (removable) spare tire weigh?

They wouldn't have to add weight. They have to increase the total gross weight when fully loaded. i.e. they could just increase the cargo carrying capacity. (Of course, that could require significant suspension changes depending on how much more weight it would have to handle.

 

[thx1139]

the Inflation Reduction Act becomes the Gross Weight Increase Act.

Tesla should truly sandbag the Model Y 5 seater. Just include enough sandbags to increase the weight to make it eligible.

 

[SOULPEDL]

MMD is not working out so well today. Stock continues to drift upward - different from rising price IMO. Drifting is like buoyancy when not being shorted so hard. (I'm making this sh** up.) It's the more natural behavior without MMD.

Shortz are weak is another read on it, greedy one's hanging on gonna get the hair treatment soon I think.

125 looks doable for today, 120 Max Pain still.

 

[mongo]

They wouldn't have to add weight. They have to increase the total gross weight when fully loaded. i.e. they could just increase the cargo carrying capacity. (Of course, that could require significant suspension changes depending on how much more weight it would have to handle.

GVWR only helps if the other off-road ground clearance conditions are met.

I did succeeded in full specification traceability:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1179
Links
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-01.pdf
Which states:

For purposes of § 30D(f)(11)(B), a vehicle’s vehicle classification is to be determined consistent with the rules and definitions provided in 40 CFR 600.002 for vans, sport utility vehicles, and pickup trucks. A vehicle described in § 30D(f)(11)(B)(iv) is a vehicle that is not considered a van, sport utility vehicle, or pickup truck consistent with the rules and definitions provided in 40 CFR 600.002.

40 CFR § 600.002 - Definitions.
Which references van, SUV, and pickup truck as light truck/ non-passenger vehicles as defined in:
49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.

Non-passenger automobile.
A non-passenger automobile means an automobile that is not a passenger automobile or a work truck and includes vehicles described in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this section:
(a) An automobile designed to perform at least one of the following functions:

(1) Transport more than 10 persons;​

(2) Provide temporary living quarters;​

(3) Transport property on an open bed;​

(4) Provide, as sold to the first retail purchaser, greater cargo-carrying than passenger-carrying volume, such as in a cargo van; if a vehicle is sold with a second-row seat, its cargo-carrying volume is determined with that seat installed, regardless of whether the manufacturer has described that seat as optional; or​

(5) Permit expanded use of the automobile for cargo-carrying purposes or other nonpassenger-carrying purposes through:​

(i) For non-passenger automobiles manufactured prior to model year 2012, the removal of seats by means installed for that purpose by the automobile's manufacturer or with simple tools, such as screwdrivers and wrenches, so as to create a flat, floor level, surface extending from the forwardmost point of installation of those seats to the rear of the automobile's interior; or​

(ii) For non-passenger automobiles manufactured in model year 2008 and beyond, for vehicles equipped with at least 3 rows of designated seating positions as standard equipment, permit expanded use of the automobile for cargo-carrying purposes or other nonpassenger-carrying purposes through the removal or stowing of foldable or pivoting seats so as to create a flat, leveled cargo surface extending from the forwardmost point of installation of those seats to the rear of the automobile's interior.​

(b) An automobile capable of off-highway operation, as indicated by the fact that it:

(1)​

(i) Has 4-wheel drive; or​

(ii) Is rated at more than 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight;​

and​

(2) Has at least four of the following characteristics calculated when the automobile is at curb weight, on a level surface, with the front wheels parallel to the automobile's longitudinal centerline, and the tires inflated to the manufacturer's recommended pressure—​

(i) Approach angle of not less than 28 degrees.​

(ii) Breakover angle of not less than 14 degrees.​

(iii) Departure angle of not less than 20 degrees.​

(iv) Running clearance of not less than 20 centimeters.​

(v) Front and rear axle clearances of not less than 18 centimeters each.​