Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608956890528256000

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608952966958174208

+Low bar, seems beatable …
I’m at 430K with the discounts and inventory clear out

Looking ahead at Q1, can we do 500K?

35K end of Q3 inventory. Assume all delivered.
176,360 October and November Shanghai production. Assume all delivered.
100K October and November Fremont production. Assume all delivered.
25K October and November Berlin and Texas production. Assume all delivered.
336,360 delivered.

That leaves December production and how much is delivered.
50K Fremont Production
35K Berlin and Texas Production
60K Shanghai Production

10K from Fremont into inventory
10K from Shanghai into inventory (shipped). Last week was closed so 10K from previous week.
6K from Berlin and Texas into inventory

So December
119K delivered

So lets round total delivery to 455K

418K from Analysts assumes 81,370 delivered in December which is less than half of November and October average.

 

[elasalle]

So do loopholes mean you lease an EV and get credits and then at the end of term you get to buy the car with the discounts baked in?

More reason to start financing? .. so Tesla can manage the whole process…

 

[Ogre]

I think they are trying to provide a bridge so people that buy today are not mad in the new year.

Best I can tell reading the law the S, X and 3, Y will get the credit regardless of the price if they are leased. It would go to the leasing company and be applied to the payments of the lease.

Here is one article that references the loophole for expensive cars. I think we can stop talking about seats, sandbags and air suspensions for the Y.

Yes.

But some people are going to want to buy their car. I seriously doubt Tesla is leasing out 90% of their new car sales starting on January 1st. So long as the loophole is open, it'll be a popular option, but I'm sure a lot of people will want a normal purchase.

So do loopholes mean you lease an EV and get credits and then at the end of term you get to buy the car with the discounts baked in?

More reason to start financing?

Tesla has not to date offered Lease Buyouts on the Model 3/Y. I think if they are going to pursue this, they probably should. Otherwise, half a million lease returns piling in in 2025 would be nuts.

 

[ThisStockGood]

35K end of Q3 inventory. Assume all delivered.
176,360 October and November Shanghai production. Assume all delivered.
100K October and November Fremont production. Assume all delivered.
25K October and November Berlin and Texas production. Assume all delivered.
336,360 delivered.

That leaves December production and how much is delivered.
50K Fremont Production
35K Berlin and Texas Production
60K Shanghai Production

10K from Fremont into inventory
10K from Shanghai into inventory (shipped). Last week was closed so 10K from previous week.
6K from Berlin and Texas into inventory

So December
119K delivered

So lets round total delivery to 455K

418K from Analysts assumes 81,370 delivered in December which is less than half of November and October average.

Oh man. That would be amazing. Elon seems in great mood these days. He knows something. Talking about fundamentals and all. Fingers crossed.

 

[mongo]

So do loopholes mean you lease an EV and get credits and then at the end of term you get to buy the car with the discounts baked in?

More reason to start financing? .. so Tesla can manage the whole process…

From Treasury FAQs Frequently Asked Questions About the New, Previously-Owned and Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicles Credit | Internal Revenue Service
Can't set it up as a sale in lease clothing.

Q5. Is a taxpayer that leases clean vehicles to customers as its business eligible to claim the qualified commercial clean vehicle credit? (added December 29, 2022)
A5. Whether a taxpayer can claim the qualified commercial clean vehicle credit in its business depends on who is the owner of the vehicle for federal income tax purposes. The owner of the vehicle is determined based on whether the lease is respected as a lease or recharacterized as a sale for federal income tax purposes.

Q6. What factors are used to determine if a transaction is a "lease" for tax purposes? (added December 29, 2022)
A6. Based on longstanding tax principles, the determination whether a transaction constitutes a sale or a lease of a vehicle for tax purposes is a question of fact. Features of a vehicle lease agreement that would make it more likely to be recharacterized as a sale of the vehicle for tax purposes include, but are not limited to:
• A lease term that covers more than 80% to 90% of the economic useful life of the vehicle
• A bargain purchase option at the end of the lease term (that is, the ability to purchase the vehicle at less than its fair market value at the end of the term) or other terms/provisions in the lease that economically compel the lessee to acquire the vehicle at the end of the lease term
• Terms that result in the lessor transferring ownership risk to the lessee, for example, a terminal rental adjustment clause (TRAC) provision that requires the lessee to pay the difference between the actual and expected value of the vehicle at the end of the lease.

 

[Curt Renz]

You gotta love how it’s Tesla/ Elon’s fault (PR Helps) that he posted a nonsense story. Also you gotta love how the publisher skates out of any responsibility for posting an article like this without apparently any fact checking.

It's unfortunate that some of the seemingly best reporters can occasionally become infected with Scoopitis, resulting in suppositions presented as facts. Then that gets compouded with blaming others for errors, e.g. lack of Tesla PR. This particulary should not be the case when investors and algobots might react to misleading headlines.

Such headlines are often more egregious than the articles, due to having been written by editors afflicted with Clickbaititis.

 

[Stretch2727]

So do loopholes mean you lease an EV and get credits and then at the end of term you get to buy the car with the discounts baked in?

More reason to start financing? .. so Tesla can manage the whole process…

The residual stays the same with or without credits. The $7500 is applied like you had a upfront payment to the lease. Pretty familiar with this as my early EV's were monthly leases under $200 and the $7500 credit was applied up front and greatly reduced the payments. Some dealers will try to play games with this, but if you are knowledgable and push them they apply as an upfront payment.

 

[elasalle]

From Treasury FAQs Frequently Asked Questions About the New, Previously-Owned and Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicles Credit | Internal Revenue Service
Can't set it up as a sale in lease clothing.

Thanks.
So you can’t buy back your own car you leased , but maybe return your lease and buy back a factory certified used car with similar usage to your own … ?
Only way to beat stupid laws is with some stupid work arounds

 

[ToTheStars]

Scoopitis

Thanks, this had me laughing out loud

 

[generalenthu]

This will only last for a couple of days because the following factors occurring at the same time:
- record new year temperatures all over western europe: 17 degrees Celsius in Brussels, bikini weather on the mediterranean coasts.
- lots of wind, close to stormy weather on the North Sea, so many gigawatts of wind power
- many businesses closed for holidays
- the lowest natural gas price in almost a year.

Only the last factor will remain important. The gas price ended 2022 at 72 euro/MWh. Only a couple of weeks in january 2022 were cheaper. This will be the biggest deflationary factor.

Gas will hopefully not get as expensive as in 2022 anymore because of more LNG capacity showing up, the latest one in Finland: Finland opens floating LNG terminal to replace Russian gas

Yes, even a few days of saved natural gas can shift the picture for tightness rest of the season. The forecasts were for a milder that average winter. Glad to see it panning out and as you say, this will be a non issue especially as the French nuclear fleet utilization goes up for next cold season.

 

[mongo]

Thanks.
So you can’t buy back your own car you leased , but maybe return your lease and buy back a factory certified used car with similar usage to your own … ?

I think you could still buy out your lease, but would incur a residual hit in doing so that reduces the benefit of the $7,500 off.

 

[MC3OZ]

I made some tentative guesses on the cost to build a Cybertruck here:- Investor Engineering Discussions

If you can improve my guesses, please do that in the Engineering thread.

 

[Ogre]

I think you could still buy out your lease, but would incur a residual hit in doing so that reduces the benefit of the $7,500 off.

I think the incentive puts a huge downward pressure on used cars and as a result, residual prices will go down. We're already starting to see the impact of this. Would you buy a 1 year old Model Y LR for $55,000 when you can get a new one for $57,500 after the rebate? It just pushes everything down.

 

[JRP3]

So they are going all out to meet or even break guidance, and with low inventory on hand FCF numbers will be more beautiful than having inventory on hand.

S/X inventory is quite high New Model S/X Inventory Levels - Tesla Inventory Charts

 

[JRP3]

Elon seems in great mood these days. He knows something.

I've been around long enough to know that Elon's apparent mood means nothing.

 

[AudubonB]

You don’t think like Elon.
it comes down to the cost of raw material inputs.

Tesla specializes in doing things others say can’t be done.

I wouldn't want to think like Mr Musk, partly because if I did, then I would consider myself inappropriate as a candidate for the BoD. More strongly: that would be the single most inappropriate attribute a Board member should possess.

Now, before the catcalls and tomato-throwing begin, recall what I wrote regarding my thought processes when choosing equity investments (hint: look up Particular Merit posts). Then go ahead with the cabbages and old eggs.

Lastly, this discussion began because I questioned a poster's assertion that a CT should cost "not much more than a battery pack". I was not (nor does @MABMAB's post here) trying to make a distinction between the CT's production costs and those of its competition.

 

[Singuy]

I think the incentive puts a huge downward pressure on used cars and as a result, residual prices will go down. We're already starting to see the impact of this. Would you buy a 1 year old Model Y LR for $55,000 when you can get a new one for $57,500 after the rebate? It just pushes everything down.

Wasn't there some kind of tax credit for used EVs as well?

 

[Xepa777]

Oh man. That would be amazing. Elon seems in great mood these days. He knows something. Talking about fundamentals and all. Fingers crossed.

I think the wave is going to be heavily mitigated because everyone at tesla is feeling the public pressure of the share price. Elon telegraphed the margin stuff in advance because they’re focusing on deliveries. It will beat.

 

[mongo]

Wasn't there some kind of tax credit for used EVs as well?

Half the new vehicle income limit, under $25k sales price, and only the first sale to a qualified person. $4k credit.