Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mardak]

have received delivery of FSD - in the sense of feature complete as defined by tesla, allowing 285k FSD payments to be recognized in Q4

With yesterday's wide release of FSD Beta to production vehicle software, if 285k reported by Tesla earlier last week was only including those who have received FSD Beta, then there could be potentially 10-20% more vehicles (310k-340k) counting towards revenue recognition. Some have estimated the North American FSD Capability purchases to be around 350k, so delivering wide release FSD Beta to these owners uninterested in participating in "early access" with the request button should help expand coverage to those who tend to adopt new technology later.

It seems likely Tesla will provide some updates on FSD Beta deployment more than 285k and/or revenue recognition later this month for Q4 earnings call/report.

 

[StealthP3D]

First half of 2023 Wishlist:

Q4 EPS print of $1.5, showing steadied automotive margins, an uptick in Energy revenue and margins, and FSD revenue recognition adding to bottom line. Tesla reaffirms solid automotive production volume and free cash flow growth in 2023. Clarifies no real demand issues in Europe and U.S., any China issues mitigated by more exports. Establishes a clear path of Energy free cash flow growth. Analysts must now revise 2023 EPS estimates upwards over $6 per share. Stock prices moves up around $200. @The Accountant offers apologies for low-balling earnings and posting analyses to Twitter first - revises 2023 EPS estimates to $7.


FSD V11 is released and provides a small improvement in performance. But stack simplification allows more resources deployed to FSDbeta improvement and faster iteration. Object detection reaches near human level as occupancy network increases resolution 16x. @Discoducky provides a 100 page product map of each feature update.

Tesla releases Tesla Maps, it's own low-res mapping product app. Crowdsourced from it's own fleet, it quasi-real time updates a vectorized representation of every road in the U.S. with lane & intersection language, all sign & light markings, and of course traffic flow. The app provides all relevant information that FSDbeta desires to reduce intersection / navigation confusion and disengagements. The % of drives w/o a critical disengagement now goes above 99% and user feedback notes that the product is now actually usuable.

Tesla announces 5 new factories throughout the year. 1) GigaTequila for cargo van (with product unveil), 2/3) China and Brazil with compact car unveil, 4/5) Indonesia and Canada for MegaPack factories. @jbcarioca succesor tells us how cars can be affordably made in Brazil even while Carnaval and the World Cup are played.

On back of $7500 tax credit that may be reduced in Q2, Q1 EPS prints a huge $1.7 with increasing margins. Share price climbs to just under $300 with PE ratio of 50.

Fed stops rate hikes and signals future small rate cut, markets respond with a decent bull run, pushing Tesla PE ratio back over 60 and $330 share price.

Tesla announces initial Cybertruck production in June.

@AudubonB deals a self-blow by subconsciously acknowledging @ZeApelido should tutor his child.



Site owner makes me head moderator.

New Year's festivities are supposed to wind down after 1 or 2am...

It's almost like everyone else went to bed and you just kept partying!

 

[EVMeister]

Happy 2023.

My friend texted me this late last night:

View attachment 891073

I never click on these types of stories as I don’t want to feed the FUD fire any oxygen.

If anyone knows what this is all about, can you provide a synopsis please?

Thanks. Cheers.

My take to save others some time. It's just clickbait rubbish about UK legislation which will mean EV chargers for homes will need to be charging unit models "approved" by the government.

 

[H Mak]

Well, good riddance to 2022, and welcome 2023 - here's wishing us all less stress than we've recently become accustomed to

Interesting that when I browse around Tesla.com for the EU I'm not seeing any new M3/Y inventory - now I doubt they sold them all, although it is a possibility, so could be they're changing something, pricing or specs? Maybe... or might just be a glitch

Same in the UK. Right now one Model 3 and one Model Y

 

[30seconds]

With yesterday's wide release of FSD Beta to production vehicle software, if 285k reported by Tesla earlier last week was only including those who have received FSD Beta, then there could be potentially 10-20% more vehicles (310k-340k) counting towards revenue recognition. Some have estimated the North American FSD Capability purchases to be around 350k, so delivering wide release FSD Beta to these owners uninterested in participating in "early access" with the request button should help expand coverage to those who tend to adopt new technology later.

It seems likely Tesla will provide some updates on FSD Beta deployment more than 285k and/or revenue recognition later this month for Q4 earnings call/report.

Does anyone have clarity on how much revenue is recognized per paying customer? I would doubt that it would be the full amount given that the software’s capabilities don’t yet match the feature list when sold but I’m not sure.

 

[mongo]

First prediction for the year -

The government is going to spend more money on lawsuits from favoritism on the EV list than what they’ll actually spend on the EV credit

As the list fills out, it’s getting more and more beyond silly as to what qualifies and what doesn’t

A tool in disguise and no more. Placating good intentions within a funhouse of mirrors.
Interesting how many here don't agree. Watch the downvotes come.

I do disagree beacuse the vehicle definitions existed way before IRA was a thing (last update 2009).

Now, that is not to ignore that the Secretary of Treasury could use criteria other than 600.092 & 523.5.

(C) REGULATIONS AND GUIDANCE.—For purposes of this paragraph, the Secretary shall prescribe such regulations or other guidance as the Secretary determines necessary for determining vehicle classifications using criteria similar to that employed by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Energy to determine size and class of vehicles.’’.

However, they are currently using the most codified and defined set of requirements. Versus: The EPA’s Vehicle-Size Classes Make No Sense—Or Do They?

As to the difference between Tesla & the other $80k limit cars. As near as I can tell, Audi, Ford, and VW have sufficent ground clearance to satisfy two off-highway criteria, this also results in breakover and departure angles than satisfy two more. Combined with AWD, that makes them a light truck/ SUV.

The Model Y does not have the required ground clearance and less than half the departure angle needed. Therefore, it only qualifies as an SUV when it has three rows of seats. (Would be a van if it had only one).49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.

 

[ThisStockGood]

2023 will be exponential.

In which direction?

 

[FSDtester#1]

I do disagree beacuse the vehicle definitions existed way before IRA was a thing (last update 2009).

Now, that is not to ignore that the Secretary of Treasury could use criteria other than 600.092 & 523.5.

However, they are currently using the most codified and defined set of requirements. Versus: The EPA’s Vehicle-Size Classes Make No Sense—Or Do They?

As to the difference between Tesla & the other $80k limit cars. As near as I can tell, Audi, Ford, and VW have sufficent ground clearance to satisfy two off-highway criteria, this also results in breakover and departure angles than satisfy two more. Combined with AWD, that makes them a light truck/ SUV.

The Model Y does not have the required ground clearance and less than half the departure angle needed. Therefore, it only qualifies as an SUV when it has three rows of seats. (Would be a van if it had only one).49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.

Do you have any ideas for easy workarounds to get the 5 seater qualified..
Like offer with only front seats, charge full price, then charge same owner $100 to put the 2nd row in? Just spitballing...

 

[Ogre]

Uh these aren’t the right numbers for Tesla? The chart is 2021 and they show about 160,000 fewer cars than Tesla made???

The chart makes no sense. It says “For the Model Year 2021”… Tesla doesn’t have distinct model years so it’s anyone’s guess what the time period was here. It also commingles PHEVs and BEVs. It’s just not super good.

 

[Stormy24]

Do you have any ideas for easy workarounds to get the 5 seater qualified..
Like offer with only front seats, charge full price, then charge same owner $100 to put the 2nd row in? Just spitballing...

Two seats and a screwdriver?

 

[mongo]

Do you have any ideas for easy workarounds to get the 5 seater qualified..
Like offer with only front seats, charge full price, then charge same owner $100 to put the 2nd row in? Just spitballing...

Yeah. Or 'technically' they could mechanically disable the second row in the folded position and sell without rear seatbelts.
However, it's a lot simplier to buy a seven seater. $3k option that results in (up to) $7,500 credit. Still a benefit to consumers who qualify. If they didn't make the 2rd row accessibility modifications, it could be cheaper (but terrible from a used market point of view)

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I’m surprised M3LR orders aren’t open yet. Still says available is 2023.

 

[cusetownusa]

A bunch of Model Y 5 seaters just popped up in inventory in my area. I wonder if this is due to it not being eligible for the $7500 and people canceling their order. I bought my model Y for $54k and I believe the current price of $67k will be a tough sell, especially without the $7500. IMO.

 

[InTheMiddle]

The chart makes no sense. It says “For the Model Year 2021”… Tesla doesn’t have distinct model years so it’s anyone’s guess what the time period was here. It also commingles PHEVs and BEVs. It’s just not super good.

Tesla *does* have model years - every single vehicle they sell is deemed a certain model year for various legal (and reasonable) reasons. The fact that Tesla makes changes within the year more often than other manufacturers (which do also do minor mid-year changes) doesn’t remove the model year. There’s a lot wrong with that chart, but referencing a single model year is fine.

 

[Cobbler]

Tesla Cuts Price of Entry Model 3 and Model Y in China - TeslaNorth.com

Tesla launched a New Year’s promo in China for Model 3 and Model Y, and now more purchase incentives are coming in the form of a price drop on entry models. The electric automaker has lowered the price of Model 3 RWD and Model Y RWD, to match the recent end of New Energy Vehicle - Tesla launched...

teslanorth.com

Tesla launched a New Year’s promo in China for Model 3 and Model Y, and now more purchase incentives are coming in the form of a price drop on entry models.

The electric automaker has lowered the price of Model 3 RWD and Model Y RWD, to match the recent end of New Energy Vehicle (NEV) subsidies by the Chinese government that ended on December 31, 2022.

The federal subsidies were 11,088 yuan ($1,607 USD) in 2022 and now Tesla has applied a near equivalent discount to the Model 3 and Model Y of 10,000 yuan ($1,550 USD) off, a combination of a 4,000 yuan insurance and 6,000 yuan delivery subsidies (via @Tslachan):

• Model 3 RWD: 255,900 yuan
• Model Y RWD: 278,000 yuan

 

[InDaClub]

Uh these aren’t the right numbers for Tesla? The chart is 2021 and they show about 160,000 fewer cars than Tesla made???

I agree. I think visualcapitalist missed the mark on this one. One of the sources is from The EPA Automotive Trends Report | US EPA.

On further inspection, the graphic seems off.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla *does* have model years - every single vehicle they sell is deemed a certain model year for various legal (and reasonable) reasons. The fact that Tesla makes changes within the year more often than other manufacturers (which do also do minor mid-year changes) doesn’t remove the model year. There’s a lot wrong with that chart, but referencing a single model year is fine.

Tesla’s “Model Years” are a bookeeping thing at best. A 2021 Model Y made in December has more in common with a 2022 “Model Year” Model Y made in January than it’s 2021 counterpart.

More important.

When does Tesla’s “2021 Model Year“ production start and end?

When does GM’s “2021 Model Year“ production start and end?

etc etc.

Essentially we are comparing 20 different time periods with each other.

 

[Singuy]

A bunch of Model Y 5 seaters just popped up in inventory in my area. I wonder if this is due to it not being eligible for the $7500 and people canceling their order. I bought my model Y for $54k and I believe the current price of $67k will be a tough sell, especially without the $7500. IMO.

Software disable the range and one of the motor, then drop the price down to 55k. I would disable the range down to 150 miles just so the incentive to restore the car to it's former glory via DLC is high. They did this in Canada with the SR+.

 

[petit_bateau]

First half of 2023 Wishlist:
..............
@AudubonB deals a self-blow by subconsciously acknowledging @ZeApelido should tutor his child.
Site owner makes me head moderator.

Are you sure you're aiming high enough ?

Head moderator makes me site owner.

 

[Dutchie]

Final sales of Tesla in the Netherlands

December Whole 2022
Tesla model 3 313 824
Tesla Model S 69 80
Tesla Model X 48 59
Tesla Model Y 2298 3892
TOTAL 2728 4855

Total 2021. 1882 4152

source. https://www.bovag.nl/BovagWebsite/media/BovagMediaFiles/Cijfers/2022/Autoverkopen-december-2022.pdf

it seems that ending the quarter rush doesn’t work so well yet. Still great achievement for December