Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[verystandard]

From the list posted earlier Wall Street consensus itself got nearest to correct on production -- 438.8k vs 439k actual. Best single estimate was Gary Black (436k), followed by Farzad and Troy at 443k and 430k respectively.

For deliveries everyone estimated much higher than the 405k actual, with the "nearest" being the IR compilied consenus at ~418k and then 4 others bunched up within a couple of 420k... (troy at 423k and Farzad and Rob Maurer way off at over 430k).


Production being that much higher than deliveries will reinforce the demand cliff narrative and be cited every time someone repeats the "Tesla sells all the cars they can make" line

The discounts with model S/X comes too late as there are still quite a bit left unsold at Canada. 2 days of clearance is definitely not enough. Model 3/Y on sale does the job however.

I really hope the roadmap for project highland can announce soon as the current Model 3 design is dated back to 2017 and it needs revamp in order to ignite sales. Also it is like now or never to introduce sub 30K EV in order to attract broader customer. Frankly, there are much more offering out there that people can choose from.

Even for building new factories people will doubt if they can can keep up with the delivery if no new product announcement (Needs much more solid road map for the new environment to adapt, unless the new giga factory is solely focus on gigapacks)

Tesla needs to step up. 388K deliveries is off the mark when they offering "Burnt hair colgne" Now the longs got burnt hair everyday

 

[Mike Smith]

They deliver most of their cars at the end of the quarter and in the last two weeks there was a massive snow storm in most of the US and half of China got covid.

 

[H Mak]

Deliveries	2021	2022	CHANGE
Q1	184,877	310,048	68%​
Q2	201,304	254,695	27%​
Q3	241,391	343,830	42%​
Q4	308,650	405,278	31%​
YEAR	936,222	1,313,851	40%​

Not what we were hoping for however 40% YOY growth is a very rare thing for auto companies. Or any company for that matter. Not that the market will see it that way

 

[elasalle]

If Tesla has any aces up it’s sleeve, might as well lay them down on table ASAP
. Address model y 5/7 config and IRA
. If Highlander is a thing for Q1
… we starting with 50K+ inventory… and I don’t trust the regional mix crap…

 

[Artful Dodger]

Great googly moogly, people! Tesla will do fine here.

Giving an 11.4% tax credit for a 50 MPGe "EV" that costs $65.5K does not advance the Mission. It slows it by supporting fossil fools.

This IRA is all about SLOWING the transition to renewable energy (by pretending hybrids are EVs), while extending the life of the mine-and-burn economy.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

After saying Q4 will be "epic", I don't know how I can trust what Elon says anymore. Two major changes since then:
1) Elon closed Twitter deal
2) China COVID got out of control

So either he was lying about "epic", or one or both of those events had a major negative impact on deliveries.

 

[thx1139]

Just noticed they make no mention of the Semi at all.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

They deliver most of their cars at the end of the quarter and in the last two weeks there was a massive snow storm in most of the US and half of China got covid.

Yeah, for sure the doubters will try to shame these numbers but the production was pretty much spot on.

Deliveries considering the above and people delaying because of uncertainties about the subsidies being 15k under concensus doesn´t seem that bad to me.

 

[mongo]

They deliver most of their cars at the end of the quarter and in the last two weeks there was a massive snow storm in most of the US and half of China got covid.

And ship were delayed.
And there were a lot of cars in China waiting to go to Australia

 

[Stormy24]

Some good news.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Elons behavior has most certainly been affecting demand. I’ve been saying this for a long time with many people disagreeing… and now those same people are bringing this up. Turning tesla into a political football was stupid and harmful to his ultimate mission .. what he can’t see that, is beyond me. If only I was smart enough to follow my instincts and sell … oh well. Tomorrow is gonna be brutal … welcome to 2023

 

[thx1139]

Giving an 11.4% tax credit for a 50 MPGe "EV" that costs $65.5K does not advance the Mission. It slows it by supporting fossil fools.

This IRA is all about SLOWING the transition to renewable energy (by pretending hybrids are EVs), while extending the life of the mine-and-burn economy.

Those cars wont get in the way of Tesla sales increasing because of the IRA tax credits. If they are eligible now they were already eligible since none of those manufacturers hit the previous 200,000 unit limit. Now Tesla gets tax credit back.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, for sure the doubters will try to shame these numbers but the production was pretty much spot on.

Deliveries considering the above and people delaying because of uncertainties about the subsidies being 15k under concensus doesn´t seem that bad to me.

But they already had 20k extra production over deliveries in Q3. With another 30k extra in Q4- leaving 50k undelivered cars H2 of the year.

And don't worry- Q is already all over the idea of Tesla hiding a ton of unsold cars

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609961396388724738

 

[bigsmooth125]

Troy got it wrong ... the Troy detractors here, got it even more wrong.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609960922608709633

Not only that but they were wrong to attack his credibility and motives, which is why they deserve a face full of crow, especially the ones who don't have the courage to admit their mistake.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

After saying Q4 will be "epic", I don't know how I can trust what Elon says anymore. Two major changes since then:
1) Elon closed Twitter deal
2) China COVID got out of control

So either he was lying about "epic", or one or both of those events had a major negative impact on deliveries.

It’s not twitter per se. It’s what he did with it and posting inflammatory rhetoric that would predictably turn off a large portion of Tesla’s core customer base.

 

[Paracelsus]

Just noticed they make no mention of the Semi at all.

Yes, this would certainly have been a great quarter to have included the delivery numbers for Semi and for Megapacks as well.

 

[vikings123]

Dan Ives is probably doing Kumbaya as everything he has been saying about brand damage suddenly seems validated.

To be fair to Elon he tried to warn us of demand softness multiple times during the quarter. But damn did he really have to sell the additional stock in the second week of December fully knowing deliveries were trending this low. Now it almost seems like the EOQ additional incentives were meant to bail out Elon. The sentiment on this forum seems to be one of shock and the bears will make sure they do maximum damage to the stock given this sentiment. Enjoy the ride and save some dry powder

Interesting additional tidbit about investor day in March. If you thought institutions were worried about Tesla and the impact of the bird you don't have to look too far.

 

[Nolimits]

AUSTIN, Texas, January 2, 2023 – In the fourth quarter, we produced over 439,000 vehicles and delivered over 405,000 vehicles. In 2022, vehicle deliveries grew 40% YoY to 1.31 million while production grew 47% YoY to 1.37 million.

We continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds which again led to a further increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter.

Thank you to all of our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and supporters who helped us achieve a great 2022 in light of significant COVID and supply chain related challenges throughout the year.

“We continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds which again led to a further increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter.”

Someone posted (wuwa?) the massive Amt of cars lined up in Shanghai last week. I thought it looked too many for just deliveries. Turns out it’s probably on a ship somewhere. Australia perhaps. Hoping we can find out.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Deliveries	2021	2022	CHANGE
Q1	184,877	310,048	68%​
Q2	201,304	254,695	27%​
Q3	241,391	343,830	42%​
Q4	308,650	405,278	31%​
YEAR	936,222	1,313,851	40%​

Not what we were hoping for however 40% YOY growth is a very rare thing for auto companies. Or any company for that matter. Not that the market will see it that way

Instant reaction on TL0 shares in Frantfurt:



112.80 Euro ~ 120.25 USD

 

[thx1139]

After saying Q4 will be "epic", I don't know how I can trust what Elon says anymore. Two major changes since then:
1) Elon closed Twitter deal
2) China COVID got out of control

So either he was lying about "epic", or one or both of those events had a major negative impact on deliveries.

Been saying this since October. Elon lies on Twitter about all sorts of things, why can we trust him about Tesla now? Now would be a good time for him to start rebuilding trust.