Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

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Still on Track for 20 million deliveries in 2030. From JPR007 - Twitter

I don't agree with these projections after 2027. There are two basic scenarios I think are likely:

1. Robotaxi (about half vehicle production is Robotaxi, they drive most of the miles) - total (all OEM) production peaks at 100m then falls back to about half, Tesla peaks at 20m in 2031 and then falls back a bit, producting most of the Robotaxis. The half of total production that is not robotaxi would consist of a wide variety of commercial vans, trucks and lorries, and cars for people who need to carry stuff about either for personal (baby stuff) or business reasons.

2. Limited Robotaxi (used more than Uber is now, but most people still own a car) - total (all OEM) production falls until EV production catches up, then rises to 150m before falling to 100m, more people worldwide own cars but EVs last longer. Tesla have about 20% of the market, so peaks at 30m in 2033 before falling back to about 20m, 5m of which are robotaxi.

For JPR007 projections to be correct Tesla would need to get and maintain a very large share of total global production, which I consider unlikely given government promotion of national champions and consumer desire for a wide range of vehicles. Tesla would also need to grow market share throughout the 2030's which seems even less likely.

 

[EVMeister]

- I think this road is close for traffic and is only used as a parking lot when going hacking.

 

[nativewolf]

I fully expect pricing to stair step down just like it stair stepped up. But they have to bring back a lower trim or do something more drastic to get under the limit. I figure the lower trim is killing two birds with one stone...

I commented on the 4 miles of range as an aside, "did you know", but I guess you've never heard the phrase before.

Have to be very careful reducing pricing, people will wait for price cuts and then deflation is your enemy and deflation is a MF.

 

[MABMAB]

Ive got no special feel for numbers and do not follow analists predictions to understand validity.
I do not recall much about prior sales reports.
things that i Do not expect to be reported today or soon that Ipact bottom line:
FSD recognition
megapack sales, perhaps increasing due to battery availability
same for home Tesla wall, less contributory
insurance
sc fees

things I observe that will likely be found out in numbers;
there are a lot of s and x models sitting unsold In the US
semi made/delivered?

too much ev ira tax bandwidth consumption here.
write your rep
trust Tsla leadership
stop wheelchair quarterbacking

still too many wearing egg on face with hopeful predictions of moves up.
me Increasingly thinks we are in a transitional time
much like post s and x waiting on 3.
gotta build out for where we are to where we are going for next set of legs or wings to grow
mp 3 in action, come to fruition kind of time
perhaps why musk predicted time for next stock sales

mp3 future
e market reg changes
more insurance
better FSD product
smaller mass produced vehicle. Tercel, not Camry. Civic not accord.
exoskeleton truck sales growth
semi growth
e grid battery pack explosion
e grid money shaving peak fees
lithium plant

large war department helps
bulls should shud up about buyback, it’s too short term in thinking

there remains too many Tesla parasites. while they may be investors, they participate in bad cooking, stirring hot pepper 🌶 to create fire. Ignore the eyeball hogs.

on cars in transit
when I search local Chevy and ford trucks at nearest sales center, all of what I might consider are not on the lot, they are still to be made or are I. Transit.

I increasingly like the my idea of this being a long transition time similar to waiting on the 3 to come out.
yes, wording of investor day interesting. Money deployment plans to be discussed along with gen 3 platform, expansion plans
these are not things that yield immediate value but rather lay out the expected path forward.
next gen plans and CT rollout mean they think they can handle adding these without hurting production (musk)
china man brought over for smoothing this out?

It’s the batteries stupid.
some of the public spreadsheet jockeys should start following battery usage/capacity.
it is a bit of a shell game wherein they can move batteries am9ngst products
need tracking of quarterly expected delivery of max battery usage between products
to get an idea of when real capacity comes online, real shifts

wont someone from here drive by the lithium plant. Site and give us a PIREP?

two of my posts DIRECTLY critical of discussions here have been eliminated
just sharing so others know
how open critique is handled subjectevily.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Eh, I bet everyone feels a bit offended when they have a post deleted, but I just had one deleted for being a “selfish post” so I’m done posting on here. I don’t think to many people care, but just wanted it to be let known, I’ll still read, but I’m done trying to contribute unless I get some kind of acknowledgment from the mods (I feel like I’ve been a good contributor..but who knows maybe I’m just noise)

For years now the mod hammer has come down on posts in which a member makes the selfish wish for a low stock price for the next few days, weeks (your case) or months, so they can get in at those prices when some money comes available. At such moments it wouldn't hurt to think of the members who are in dire straits at these price levels, or just lost a lot of money because they were forced to sell their shares.

 

[insaneoctane]

This US IRA is a clusterf#<. It's caused buyers to delay even before it was passed into law and continues to cause buyers uncertainty MONTHS later, even now that it's supposedly in effect. The companies selling twelve EVs a month aren't severely impacted by this induced uncertainty like Tesla who sells 100K+ EVs a month. It doesn't really matter if was nefarious or gross incompetence...it's a dumpster fire for Tesla and share holders for US sales ATM.

Between this and the softness of an impending recession, I think Tesla is likely to lower pricing. How many potential buyer are waiting on the side lines to see how this unravels?

 

[MABMAB]

For years now the mod hammer has come down on posts in which a member makes the selfish wish for a low stock price for the next few days, weeks (your case) or months, so they can get in at those prices when some money comes available. At such moments it wouldn't hurt to think of the members who are in dire straits at these price levels, or just lost a lot of money because they were forced to sell their shares.

Bravo.
where was such at ATH with gambling posts?

seriously though
this site needs some pseudo legal disclaimers, not for tmc protection, but just common sense looking out for the common man.

and better allow open critique of what others bring forth here
like this guy
who bailed out of his options prior to when he said he would
left tmc
turned out to be a licensed professional likely breaking rules
and then the mods shut out further discussion
and tmc members were unkind of critique

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[CitizenKane]

Is Gene Munster correct in stating that every Tesla produced is backed by a specific order?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609983007410032642

If so, then I don't think I am the only one misunderstanding the situation.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Yes, but they are unwinding the wave which is not just one quarter at a time but for the entire rest of Tesla's delivery existence. Before they build up inventory Q1, Q2, and then draw down inventory Q3 and Q4. That's a wave in itself. Now they are dealing with millions of cars.

Yeah. For the wave, once it is unwound completely, there shouldn’t be a significant gap in P and D going forward. The only gap (measured in vehicles) should be for production increases, but that shouldn’t change the amount of inventory if measured in days of production or days of sales.

If you assumed the wave was completely unwound after q3, then the current PD gap is unexpected. If you assumed the q3 unwinding was incomplete and still had to do more unwinding to do this q4, then it seems plausible that they have this p and d gap.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

Is Gene Munster correct in stating that every Tesla produced is backed by a specific order?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609983007410032642

If so, then I don't think I am the only one misunderstanding the situation.

That claim by Gene was bizarre. I don’t think Tesla operates that way. They have limited variations and end up matching up vehicles with orders after the fact. I could be wrong of course….

 

[MikeAtkinson]

So the mega-trend of electrification, with exponentially growing EV sales is gone from one day to the other?

Where I live, that mega trend is only starting. ICE vehicle are now penalized so much in the company car market (>50% of new car sales) that ICE sales will practically disappear by the end of the year. This is based on comments of car importers and lease companies in newspaper articles, and this corresponds to what I hear about company car options from my friends.

I think the mega-trend is going to be production limited.

Most of Europe (because of incentives and taxes) and NA (because of IRA) and China (government direction) are biased heavily to EVs, and this bias looks like it will only increase.

It looks like EVs have become more desirable than ICE in every respect: cost, total cost of ownership, features, performance, safety, environment, etc. People will only buy less desirable products if they have to. This will push the cost of new ICE cars down, but not by much lower production volumes will push up COGS so there is less room for price reductions. My estimate is that by the end of the decade first choice demand for ICE cars will be in the single digit millions, people who cannot get their first choice will settle for new ICE/PHEV, or used EV/ICE/PHEV, or prospone purchaces.

It looks like OEMs will really struggle to create new EV platforms which are heavily electronics/software based and are economical to produce. Until they do and get those platforms in volume production, they will be limited to electrification of existing platforms. Existing platforms give a way to get production relatively quickly for modest volumes of a large number of models, but does not help with getting designed from the ground up cars into volume production. OEMs also risk loosing economies of scale as ICE/Hybrid/EV vehicles built on the same platform loose their ICE and Hybid sales.

Chinese companies are unlikely to have significant volume outside China this decade, it will take that long to improve their vehicles, increase production and set up delivery networks outside China.

As ever Robotaxi is the big unknown

 

[MABMAB]

retail: me thinks not much left to scare out.
too late to tax loss harvest.
not sure recent news changes their fundamental perspective

big money
some likely left along the way for reasons now being experienced

growth
future earnings
skating to where the puck will be

i think things will be ok, not sure when

 

[Max Plaid]

So if Shanghai in Q2 gave us another 80k worth of deliveries, Tesla would have hit 50% yoy growth no problem. Oh well, you can't win them all.

Yes, the problem isn't actually the growth of P&D, but rather that Tesla kept guiding 50% for the year when it was totally obvious that this was extremely unlikely, they should have guided lower after Q2 then beaten that guidance if possible. And yes, we know they mean 50% average over several years, but Wall Street doesn't play like that, and yes, we know that Elon doesn't like to play with Wall Street, but it's our portfolios that are being hammered

It's just awful communication and expectation management from Tesla, no excuses at all

 

[vikings123]

Is Gene Munster correct in stating that every Tesla produced is backed by a specific order?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609983007410032642

If so, then I don't think I am the only one misunderstanding the situation.

Looks like we are in the minority for sure. Come on @avoigt you are better than this. Sure most models were MTO(Make to order) but that clearly changed in 2022.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610218689197998080

 

[hobbes]

Good long term tperspective:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609969083918712832

 

[MC3OZ]

I think the mega-trend is going to be production limited.

Most of Europe (because of incentives and taxes) and NA (because of IRA) and China (government direction) are biased heavily to EVs, and this bias looks like it will only increase.

It looks like EVs have become more desirable than ICE in every respect: cost, total cost of ownership, features, performance, safety, environment, etc. People will only buy less desirable products if they have to. This will push the cost of new ICE cars down, but not by much lower production volumes will push up COGS so there is less room for price reductions. My estimate is that by the end of the decade first choice demand for ICE cars will be in the single digit millions, people who cannot get their first choice will settle for new ICE/PHEV, or used EV/ICE/PHEV, or prospone purchaces.

It looks like OEMs will really struggle to create new EV platforms which are heavily electronics/software based and are economical to produce. Until they do and get those platforms in volume production, they will be limited to electrification of existing platforms. Existing platforms give a way to get production relatively quickly for modest volumes of a large number of models, but does not help with getting designed from the ground up cars into volume production. OEMs also risk loosing economies of scale as ICE/Hybrid/EV vehicles built on the same platform loose their ICE and Hybid sales.

Chinese companies are unlikely to have significant volume outside China this decade, it will take that long to improve their vehicles, increase production and set up delivery networks outside China.

As ever Robotaxi is the big unknown

We can expect Tesla 2023 total production to be higher than 2022 production.

Covid related shutdowns at Shanghai are less likely.

Supply chain constaints may start to ease.

Austin and Berlin only started ramping well in Q4 2022.

Each time production is increased, there is a chance of more inventory in transit at the end of the quarter.

But eventually each car finds a buyer, even when Tesla needs to find a price which finds a buyer.

So uncertainty and doubt can't last forever.

 

[verystandard]

Looks like we are in the minority for sure. Come on @avoigt you are better than this. Sure most models were MTO(Make to order) but that clearly changed in 2022.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610218689197998080

I'm sorry but I have to add my 2 cents onto this in "Canadian" perspective. While most of the model 3/Y are cleared during the december sales and slowly replenish back in, there are still lots of Model X (and some S) sitting on the dealer parking lot awaiting for buyer, especially model X list is long in Vancouver (35) and in Toronto (41). One can look it up

Edit: There still demands on S/X Model in other regions as the new S/X still not tapped in some other markets so I'm deleting this part of the statement I've previously made.

 

[WarpedOne]

Is Gene Munster correct in stating that every Tesla produced is backed by a specific order?

Depending on your favorite definition of "produced"...
Is that a heap of material vaiting to be assembled?
Is that a car removed from assembly and waiting to be tested?
Is that a car waiting at the dock to be loaded on RoRo?
Is that a car that just came off RoRo and waiting for a truck?
Is that a car that just came off a truck in some service/delivery center?
Is that a car that just successfully finished a final service check and detailing?

Production at the factory is done in batches of same configuration. Size of those batches is based on historical and current orders and some voodo hand waving. Some of those cars can have an owner already waiting. Or none of them, or all of them. Or there could even be more owners already waiting for certain configuration than the batch size because part constraints or that voodoo hand waving.

There are some cars that end in inventory for a few days. These came from batches where tesla's hand waving was a bit too optimistic and not all of them got sold while still on their way to SC. Or prospective owner got cold feet (or couldn't pay on time due to pocket emptinees).

 

[MikeAtkinson]

We can expect Tesla 2023 total production to be higher than 2022 production.

Covid related shutdowns at Shanghai are less likely.

Supply chain constaints may start to ease.

Austin and Berlin only started ramping well in Q4 2022.

Each time production is increased, there is a chance of more inventory in transit at the end of the quarter.

But eventually each car finds a buyer, even when Tesla needs to find a price which finds a buyer.

So uncertainty and doubt can't last forever.

Agree about Tesla, but I was talking about the total EV market, as was NicoV to whom I replied.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm sorry but I have to add my 2 cents onto this in "Canadian" perspective. While most of the model 3/Y are cleared during the december sales and slowly replenish back in, there are still lots of Model X (and some S) sitting on the dealer parking lot awaiting for buyer, especially model X list is long in Vancouver (35) and in Toronto (41). One can look it up

Clearly there are slower demand with these S/X model due to the awesome economy situation. I hope Tesla realize this and shift some of these production into something else such as new gen model 3/superchargers/megapack/semi/cheaper model instead of keep pumping out cars that is hard to sell.

Can't wait Tom to do his magic

View attachment 891752

Model S/X need to be shipped to other markets.

Perhaps make some RHD vechicles for markets like the UK, HK, Singapore, NZ and Australia.

Total Model S/X production is only a tiny fraction of the global car market.