There is nothing new nor to see here. Tesla was over the years all the time attracting buyers with different measures and they've done the same in Q4. With regards to the price cuts, you refer to in Germany, for instance, the opposite happened and the Model S is now 10k higher in cost than 12 months ago.
How do you explain that with weak demand?
Exactly - this is why I would like to see Tesla report the number of Q4 cancellations - and do so by country and by vehicle model. And they should include the number of requests by US customers to delay the delivery of their vehicles until after the first of the year to be eligible for the IRA and/or modify their order when the vehicle criteria for IRA qualification was released after their order was placed. That data would answer the majority of questions regarding demand concern and answer concerns of potential disruptions in Q4 to Tesla by the IRA.
These are huge questions that are easily answered, and can be done so in a way that minimizes the media’s ability to further weaponize these concerns against Tesla’s performance. I personally think
@avoigt observations of Germany will be similar with almost every other country on the planet - that they want their new Tesla, and they want them now, and they will pay more to get them.
If we had access to that data I think we would see the greatest percentage of Q4 delivery cancellations were in the US by a very wide margin, and that many of those cancellations were either requests to delay until after the new year for the IRA, or requests to switch their order to a Tesla model that would qualify for the IRA since that information wasn’t available until after the order was made. And if that were the case while prices for new Teslas continue to escalate elsewhere, the demand argument is over. Furthermore, we could drive a stake through the argument of whether or not the IRA disrupted Q4 with some certainty. And as far as the ‘status’ of Q4 in transit vehicles - another question answered for the media that probably does know better- because all are sold and headed to the happy new IRA recipient’s home in Q1 2023.
Let’s be honest, the US has a disproportionately large percentage of citizens that plan for very little, and live for instance gratification as compared to the rest of the world. That is what has helped make auto dealerships successful when they can put a few fake discounts on an inventory car that someone doesn’t really need - the instant gratification impulse. And it helps sustain predatory capitalism in the US. Now enter into the equation the ability to get $7,500 for the delay of your vehicle for only a couple weeks? Wow, that would be free money for most Americans buying that vehicle with almost $0 down. Americans don’t care about how much interest those loans cost. But they do like getting a chunk of change for doing nothing. For me the biggest question isn’t IF the IRA disrupted the end of Tesla’s Q4, it is ‘by how much’. And regardless of whether or not it was disrupted intentionally, we will see Tesla handled it much better than many wanted them to, and more importantly, that Q4 disruption of delayed orders/deliveries that were in transit are now a substantial jump start to an otherwise traditionally slower Q1. I believe Tesla has startled the 2023 race several car lengths ahead as a result.
We have speculated for a decade on TMC that there have always been a small percentage of fake vehicle orders made with bad intentions to attempt to complicate growth by Tesla, and I think a portion of the vehicles that end up in showrooms available for new purchase are the result of this. And it completely disproves the demand issue argument because even these vehicles fly off the shelf, regardless of configuration or location.
It’s 2023 now, and Q4 2022 is in our rear view mirror. Going forward Tesla should be vocal about wanting a fair opportunity with the IRA. For instance, it’s not the 2 rows vs 3 rows of seats in the Model Y to qualify for the IRA that I get hung up on, it the disparity between Tesla vs VW for those requirements.
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