yeah. why isn't the website updated to reflect this? what reason is there for not doing that?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
yeah. why isn't the website updated to reflect this? what reason is there for not doing that?
cdub
OG 2011 Leaf / 2023 Model Y LR
He said this? I must have missed it. I've been staying off the T word for my own sanity.
Elon gave us more clues. The tweet about the extremely strong long-term fundamentals but at the same time unpredictable short-term market madness was even stronger, especially when he stressed in another tweet to please take both of those to heart. He was sending a signal but at the same time trying not to get in trouble with the SEC.
Where will this end? With bad macros and a few minor bad Tesla cases I’m curious about what level the floor might be found at. Most of us expect 2022 numbers might help out, but what if those also “disappoint” the marked?
A PE of 20+ is high when everyone thinks there is no future growth and that the margin are evaporating due to inflation and lack of demand.. Even at sp of 60, with a mere 10ish in PE it might look expensive to someone. Remember Gm has a PE of 6 ish.
Need something big to turn the sentiment, unless we might be in for some relay ugly short term actions.
(just bought more myself)
A PE of 20+ is high when everyone thinks there is no future growth and that the margin are evaporating due to inflation and lack of demand.. Even at sp of 60, with a mere 10ish in PE it might look expensive to someone. Remember Gm has a PE of 6 ish.
Need something big to turn the sentiment, unless we might be in for some relay ugly short term actions.
(just bought more myself)
Olle
Active Member
A good article on the topic: The Battle of the Bodies: Steel vs. Aluminum in Automotive ProductionNope, there are many blends of alu. Alu is superior to steel for its weight savings and it can match steel in strength as well. Again many blends and compositions and as we witness with Tesla they will formulate their own blends to achieve X structural demands, crumple characteristics that it requires. With weight being the biggest issue with batteries alu makes the obvious low cost choice. And on the point of formulating their own blends, Tesla taps SpaceX's bleeding edge expertise on Material Science when needed.
Btw, the old alu is brittle and shatter or snap is probably a vestige of the old Cannondales and Kleins from the 80's with their then limited understanding of alu, fat tube frames of that era.
Quit Picking On Aluminum!
It is time to give aluminum—the most underappreciated wonder material—the respect it deserves.www.bicycling.com
Yes, on Space he said demand for all auto is soft, and expect it to be during a recession as big ticket items will be one of the first things people will cut. He also mentions that compounding that with higher interest rate further exacerbate the problem. Last thing he said before the call ended is that it's terrible weather ahead but Tesla will weather the storm will and it'll be sunshine and rainbows again.
"Europe numbers seem underwhelming" - how do you arrive at that conclusion? Seems to me that most territories are 2x higher than Q3 with Germany and the UK, the two largest markets, still to reportStill early to say, but Europe numbers seem underwhelming enough to actually give credit to the theory that many of these cars are still in transit:
We'll only know for sure in February.
Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats
This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...teslamotorsclub.com
Europe and US look like ~50% you, China seems to be the shortfall, with excess cars waiting for ROROs or in-transit
thesmokingman
Active Member
It's a moot point cuz the Giga castings are alu. Tesla's already made a material sciences conclusion and alu is their path. Coincidentally that path is only possible with their unique formulation of aluminum for die casting, w/o this the Giga castings would not work.
While checking on the Tesla website for any clue about the IRA I did notice that there are zero Model Ys or 3s in my area. Only 2 S, 2X.
US inventory is only at 685 total. Has anyone seen this before? Only available to be registered in CA? (SR+)
US inventory is only at 685 total. Has anyone seen this before? Only available to be registered in CA? (SR+)
Quoting the journalist about demand issues: ‘It takes forever to get these cars’. (At 2:22)
Honda had -33% yoy (growth), perhaps wall street prefers that,.
Lots of ROROs shipping cars out of Japan that will soon be looking for a new gig.
thesmokingman
Active Member
It's hilarious that they followed that up with... Irwin.
Earnings momentum in Tesla negative and will probably stay that way a few months, says Roth Capital's Irwin
Craig Irwin, Roth Capital sr. research analyst, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his neutral rating and $85 price target on Tesla.
Im not gonna get into what he should or shouldnt do. I know how you feel. Im just telling you what the situation is from a trader’s perspective. Elon’s not gonna be able to help the stock right now. I’ve made peace with it and adjusted my finance accordingly. I hope you will, too.he should at least talk up the cars. instead he's prattling on about culture wars. how does this help tesla again? (i mean aside from the 5d chess where musk takes over the media world and gives tesla control of the media narrative and vanquishes all enemies without an official PR department)
I actually just quit my job 2 weeks ago to pursue full time trading. HODLing TSLA & trading while having a full time job took a huge toll on me during the last 3 years. Waited till we got to 160 to quit because I needed to see if I’d still feel good at 160. Turned out 108 isnt that much worse.
I’ve been selling calls non stop and built enough cash to pay off my house or endure 3 years of recession. Although TSLA is still a huge % of my net worth, I need the cash and security to be able to make the best decisions here. Maybe all we need is to take a year off from hoping for any kind of substantial recovery and just let the economic downturn runs its course. At least hes not gonna sell any more stock till 2025. I can live with that.
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jkirkwood001
Active Member
C'mon, SEMIs!
"When Elon Musk announced plans to upend the long-haul trucking industry five years ago, it was hard to not laugh."
bloomberg.com
Opinion | Elon's Impossible Electric Truck Is Getting the Last Laugh
5:19 PM · Dec 14, 2022
"...The decline of domestic oil refining and 2022’s squeeze in energy prices have conspired to drive US truck fuel costs up to almost double what they were five years ago. Plug the current prices of Californian diesel and commercial electricity into the trucking expenditure calculator made by logistics-data company ACT Research Co., and even an electric rig that’s twice as pricey to buy as a conventional vehicle is getting 12% cost savings every mile, equivalent to nearly $17,000 a year at typical usage levels."
"When Elon Musk announced plans to upend the long-haul trucking industry five years ago, it was hard to not laugh."
bloomberg.com
Opinion | Elon's Impossible Electric Truck Is Getting the Last Laugh
5:19 PM · Dec 14, 2022
"...The decline of domestic oil refining and 2022’s squeeze in energy prices have conspired to drive US truck fuel costs up to almost double what they were five years ago. Plug the current prices of Californian diesel and commercial electricity into the trucking expenditure calculator made by logistics-data company ACT Research Co., and even an electric rig that’s twice as pricey to buy as a conventional vehicle is getting 12% cost savings every mile, equivalent to nearly $17,000 a year at typical usage levels."
Olle
Active Member
I agree. I posted the article to shed some light on the opinion unthread that steel was preferred from a safety standpoint. It's not.
Haven't seen this posted, but I'm writing my email tomorrow...
www.teslarati.com
"The IRS gives specific instructions on how to submit the comments. Comments can be submitted by mail or email. For those submitting by email, you need to include OMB Control No. 1545-2137 in the subject line and send it to [email protected]"
IRS invites consumers to comment on EV tax credit qualifications
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is inviting consumers to share comments on the electric vehicle tax credit qualifications.
www.teslarati.com
"The IRS gives specific instructions on how to submit the comments. Comments can be submitted by mail or email. For those submitting by email, you need to include OMB Control No. 1545-2137 in the subject line and send it to [email protected]"
Folks, a bullish sign.
I was talking to my friend who left Tesla for Google then rejoined Tesla. I joked about the toilet paper, and he went into a serious rant about how somehow the toilet paper was still some extremely narrow width and super thin single ply, even after all these years. He also mentioned how there were still big bathroom wait lines after lunch.
Bullish because those cost savings will eventually reach the bottom line. A serious tissue. I mean issue.
I was talking to my friend who left Tesla for Google then rejoined Tesla. I joked about the toilet paper, and he went into a serious rant about how somehow the toilet paper was still some extremely narrow width and super thin single ply, even after all these years. He also mentioned how there were still big bathroom wait lines after lunch.
Bullish because those cost savings will eventually reach the bottom line. A serious tissue. I mean issue.
Tesla typically doesn't make too many changes for the first week or two after the end of the quarter to upset people who just took delivery. I'd expect a raft of changes when they come.
petit_bateau
Active Member
About a decade ago I/we pulled our business out of being a storage designer/manufacturer. One of the reasons I did so was because I knew we did not have the depth of capital to go head-to-head with Musk/Tesla in the space, and nor could we compensate with low labour costs. So we focussed in other places. I/we were very right to be concerned as Tesla's offering was attractive: they simply had more firepower and it showed.
Collectively the Chinese on the other hand did not step back. They have comparable depth of capital to Tesla/Musk (or far more, depending on how you view things) and they pushed ahead with moving LFP from concept to reality, reaching (now) a price/performance point that is globally relevant to the mass market for storage. (and related stuff) They primarily did that because they were motivated by the vehicle market. The term I have used for 15+ years is that there is a mobility-premium for wrapping a battery in a vehicle shell, and the market simply does not - for many very understandable reasons - want to grant that premium margin to stationary storage. So LFP was aimed at vehicles. But it is also en passant solving the storage problem which is now scaling fast.
The size of that rapidly growing mass market from year-to-year is a closely held secret, if indeed anyone knows all the puzzle pieces. I try to track it through different approaches, but it is nigh-on impossible to quantify. I'm not sure many other people have a much better understanding, however much they sell their research reports for (they used to come to me, trying to blag me to get my data for their report). As you probably know I suss out the vehicle/battery splits each year to try and keep tabs on that, enough to do some basic public domain analysis. Quantifying storage with an equivalent precision was tough. From the limited poor quality signals I could assess, until last year I thought Tesla had overwhelming dominance in the utility segment, but was less obviously dominant in the domestic segment, and there were signs that the commercial segment was a fizzle for everyone.
In the course of the last year it has become clearer from the qualitative public domain info that Tesla is no longer competitive in the domestic market. That is why apart from some special niche markets (such as the USA ..... which is why a lot of US-ians aren't reading the tea leaves well ....) Tesla has largely pulled out of attempts to grow their presence in domestic. Instead Tesla has focussed its efforts on the larger utility-scale products and projects. Now does this mean that Tesla can't sell every (domestic) Powerwall it produces: no. Does this mean the price for Powerwall's is reducing : no. So But go look in the market beyond the USA and the Tesla Powerwall is practically a dead product, swamped under a tidal wave of Chinese clones. Overall the Chinese are growing their absolute market size faster than Tesla is, and hence Tesla's market share is reducing.
Anyone who has ever read Christensen's "Innovators Dilemma" can tell you what is most likely to come next. I've spoilt things by giving my opinion. Tesla will sell every utility scale Megapack they can make for the next few years and will command a premium price for them. None of them will sell into China. Many will sell into USA or to clients in the wider western alliance who are allergic to China. But increasingly the Chinese will move upscale into the utility segment and take what in the longer term will likely become the commanding position. And then Tesla utility-scale storage margins will wither year-by-year with no path back, no matter how many turnaround plans are attempted. The projected scenario in the graphs I gave earlier are very much the high-case; the low-case is far less attractive.
Is this a logical harvesting strategy for Tesla, yes. Is it a sign of weaknesses inside Tesla, also yes. Ultimately we know that pathway is terminal in the hardware space. (Tesla keeps on saying that is has not got a capital problem, but it has been AWOL on deploying it aggressively in this space. So that means Tesla has had a leadership talent problem in this space. I'd have though that much was patently obvious given the history of what we now call Tesla Energy). Does it mean investors should worry, absolutely, because by the time storage sales revenues are that significant then also the stuffing will have been beaten out of margins.
I realise it is not popular to say this, but a corresponding story is so far playing out in the BEV market. The data shows that Tesla is year-on-year losing market share by volume, by GWh, and by revenue. I last posted this graph about 11-months ago. Clearly Tesla has put its first team into bat in the vehicle market, and the seconds are playing in the storage market (and crikey knows who are in the solar market). The first team are playing an excellent game. The second team may be about to get a second wind for a while. And the third team are playing in some 0.1% league.
The analysts who are asking questions on the quarterly call are about as dangerous as a newborn baby deer. The better-armed hunters in the market have shot off a lot of ammunition recently, and some of it has hit home - that was because they can detect a valid scent, even if they don't yet fully understand it. Tesla needs to decide whether it is predator or prey, rather than distractedly fiddling with blue feathery baubles in another room.
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