Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

UK sets new record for wind power generation

New record of 87.2% also set for share of electricity on grid coming from renewables and nuclear

www.theguardian.com

Lots more wind energy coming online in the next couple of years. To make full use of it and get to even higher percentages of usage the UK needs more storage.

Edit: the UK installed 2.3 GW capacity in 2021 and 15GW capacity between 2022 and 2026 (Wind energy in Europe: 2021 Statistics and the outlook for 2022-2026 | WindEurope) - I think this does not include most (or all) of the 11GW of new projects awarded in the summer.

The total UK wind capacity is 25.5 GW (https://www.renewableuk.com/news/61...igawatts-powering-two-thirds-of-UK-homes-.htm)

In the summer 11 GW capacity of new projects where awarded (wind energy 8 GW) (UK awards almost 11 GW in biggest-ever national renewables auction | WindEurope)

There is about 14 GW grid solar capacity in the UK + 3 GW of domestic, but it produces very little energy in winter. (Solar power in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia)

 

[LST]

Umm.. you do realize that Tesla has never even sold powerwalls outside north america? Or have they?

I'm certain it's never been available in europe.

They have, although long wait times, we installed two PW in 2021, as of now, very happy with the product and UI. Thats in Switzerland ( which is technically not EU, but sure enough outside NA)

 

[Mike Smith]

The media and analysts are completely ignoring the fact that Tesla could start advertising instead of dropping prices if they needed to. The average automaker spends about $500 per car on advertising. Tesla ads showing the benefits of EVs and advantages of Teslas over other EVs would be far more effective than the traditional ads showings cars going down a nice road and someone making vapid inspirational comments. Media and analysts seem to think that Tesla would rather see sales collapse and margins shrivel than run some ads.

 

[Artful Dodger]

ChatGPT FTW!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610441782138920961

Online OCR also free FTW! As in, "Feel free" to copy'n'paste this to ur nearest Congress Critter!

Dear IRS,​

​

I am writing to express my frustration and distrust regarding the new tax incentive for electric vehicles. It is unacceptable that the incentive includes plug-in hybrids, such as the 22 mpg Jeep Wrangler, while excluding the most popular electric vehicle in the world, the Tesla Model Y.​

​

As a taxpayer and a concerned citizen, I believe that incentives should be directed towards promoting they use of the most efficient and environmentally-friendly vehicles. The inclusion of a vehicle with such low fuel efficiency as the Jeep Wrangler undermines the purpose of the incentive and calls into question the motivations behind its design.​

​

I urge the IRS to reconsider this decision and ensure that the tax incentive is fairly applied to all electric vehicles, including the Tesla Model Y.​

​

Sincerely,​

​

[Your name]​

 

[aGreenGuy]

They have, although long wait times, we installed two PW in 2021, as of now, very happy with the product and UI. Thats in Switzerland ( which is technically not EU, but sure enough outside NA)

I’ve been on waiting list for a power wall in Norway since product launch, but it’s still not offered here. Would have been a gold mine the last two years, prices have fluctuated crazy like 20-60 cents pr kwh during a 24 hrs cycle. (Norway is not in EU)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Volume of 231.4 million chairs. What fraction of that is comprised of bona fide shares being sold to those who want to hold them for any real length of time I wonder? Is it even statistically significant?

> 7M shares traded at the Closing Cross. This is mostly day shortzes:

Tesla will print >$4B FCF on Wed Jan 25, 2023. Cash is King, and Elon is Crown Prince.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK EVs

SMMT figures should come out tomorrow.

In the meantime (if I'm reading this correctly), a different organisation says that over a third of ALL UK December car sales were EVs, 13% of TOTAL sales of all powertrains were Teslas! That makes Tesla the largest Brand* in terms of sales with next biggest being VW with 11% of total car sales (petrol 6% of total, EVs 3% + hybrids/diesels as remainder - circa 2%)

Edits: Typo & note that (*) VW Group is larger than VW brand's 11%. Audi is 7%, Seat, Cupra, Skoda, Porsche(?) would add to that - maybe 22-24%?

Spoiler: Images-Tweet-website

Electric Car Count — New AutoMotive

Find out which car company is winning the battle for a share of the market for new EVs, which company is going big on hybrids, and who is clinging on to petrol or diesel.

newautomotive.org

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610571391979642882

 

[jerry33]

How many people within the income limit buy a car worth $90k ?

The EV tax credit income limit for married couples who are filing jointly is $300,000. And if you file as head of household and make $225,000 or more, you also won’t be able to claim the credit.​

​

Anyway, I think fewer people will buy FSD anyway, since it is quite expensive and monthly subscription is available.

Well, I did back in 2013, I was well below the $300,000 limit I kind of disagree with the monthly subscription will lower buying FSD part because it's always possible to come up with the lump sum if you try hard enough (and want it badly enough) but having monthly payments is what really gets you into trouble. I have to want something really badly to go for a subscription.

 

[Brn2Run]

Brn2Run said:
To break 400k.

What’s your math that says 400k is such a high bar?
China is likely doing at least as many as Q3. That takes us to 343k.
400k from there is 57k.
Do you think 57k is a lot even with all the incentives?
Aren’t you seeing increased sales in your part of the world?

Btw, don’t we have a reasonable estimate on EU based on public data? Any idea how many thousands more were delivered in EU this quarter already?

Because of China. Because I dont see Tesla sprinting at the end of the quarter anymore, as they have said. so I was surprised. And guessed it had to be a round number.

 

[SN_8]

I strongly suspect that since Elon is clearly on-record as mostly anti-subsidy, he won't go for the clever gimmicky solutions floating around this thread. I think he'll support only solutions that take the high road like reduced MSRP, or only selling 7-seaters in US, etc. Just my subjective read on Elon.

I generally agree. The discussion here on this topic has shocked me in that so many posters that rave about "first principle thinking" are at the same time so quick to forget it to try to align to arbitrary government definitions. Let's make it heavier; let's make it less aerodynamic; let's add seats that majority buyers aren't interested in...

Tesla does not need to change the best selling, most efficient, kickass EV on the planet to chase $7500 from idiotic and corrupt lawmakers.

Tesla and it's stakeholders should speak up to enact change. Tesla should reintroduce lower trims that will sell like gangbusters if they must. They should drop prices if they must.

But for goodness sake don't redesign anything just because of an effed up law.

 

[MABMAB]

> 7M shares traded at the Closing Cross. This is mostly day shortzes:

View attachment 892174

Tesla will print >$4B FCF on Wed Jan 25, 2023. Cash is King, and Elon is Crown Prince.

Cheers to the Longs!

How do you know it is mostly shorts? And what exactly are you saying, that they sold that price or closed the short?

I ask, because I don’t th8nk one can know such things

 

[bkp_duke]

Are you sure that’s not some click bait and an opportunity to sell more patreon subscriptions?

True that, he does push his patreon hard.

 

[Skryll]

[...] But go look in the market beyond the USA and the Tesla Powerwall is practically a dead product, swamped under a tidal wave of Chinese clones. Overall the Chinese are growing their absolute market size faster than Tesla is, and hence Tesla's market share is reducing.

how many of those are vpp capable ? Tesla it's just now getting its feet wet with powerwalls as standard component of solar homes supporting their local grid.

First they did that for California with PG&E and Edison I believe, now they also are becoming a distributed utility in Texas.

Check out Emergency Load Reduction Pilot | Tesla Support

They are figuring out how to go big with this, fine tuning the approach.

I am pretty excited where this will go, and how it ties it all together, domestic and grid level.

I believe UK is in the works as well ?

 

[Skryll]

They have, although long wait times, we installed two PW in 2021, as of now, very happy with the product and UI. Thats in Switzerland ( which is technically not EU, but sure enough outside NA)

I saw Model homes with powerwalls and solar in Germany, a few years ago.

 

[samppa]

They have, although long wait times, we installed two PW in 2021, as of now, very happy with the product and UI. Thats in Switzerland ( which is technically not EU, but sure enough outside NA)

Good to know. Right now here order page shows that you can order a news subscription about powerwalls.

 

[Speedr117]

How much does the 3rd row seats cost Tesla? $1,000? $1,500? It seems the simplest solution is to make the 7 seats standard. Either eat the $1,000-$1,500 cost, or raise the price by that amount (not $3k). The theory being, selling a LR Model Y for $58k with rebate should cause a massive demand.

The other approach would be to have a phenomenal lease deal. Typically you take the rebate and divide it out across the term (i.e. 36 months). It basically lowers the lease payment by $200. So the new monthly payment would be $589. I think a lot of people would jump on that! No income or vehicle price limits either, since it's a commercial deal!

 

[mach-edriver]

Online OCR also free FTW! As in, "Feel free" to copy'n'paste this to ur nearest Congress Critter!

View attachment 892172

Dear IRS,​

​

I am writing to express my frustration and distrust regarding the new tax incentive for electric vehicles. It is unacceptable that the incentive includes plug-in hybrids, such as the 22 mpg Jeep Wrangler, while excluding the most popular electric vehicle in the world, the Tesla Model Y.​

​

As a taxpayer and a concerned citizen, I believe that incentives should be directed towards promoting they use of the most efficient and environmentally-friendly vehicles. The inclusion of a vehicle with such low fuel efficiency as the Jeep Wrangler undermines the purpose of the incentive and calls into question the motivations behind its design.​

​

I urge the IRS to reconsider this decision and ensure that the tax incentive is fairly applied to all electric vehicles, including the Tesla Model Y.​

​

Sincerely,​

​

[Your name]​

I’d remove the terns of invective…”distrust”…”question the motivations.” Short of a formal accusation, these only strengthen bureaucratic resistance to change.

 

[Olle]

How much does the 3rd row seats cost Tesla? $1,000? $1,500? It seems the simplest solution is to make the 7 seats standard. Either eat the $1,000-$1,500 cost, or raise the price by that amount (not $3k). The theory being, selling a LR Model Y for $58k with rebate should cause a massive demand.

The other approach would be to have a phenomenal lease deal. Typically you take the rebate and divide it out across the term (i.e. 36 months). It basically lowers the lease payment by $200. So the new monthly payment would be $589. I think a lot of people would jump on that! No income or vehicle price limits either, since it's a commercial deal!

From having been involved in manufacturing I'd say the third row costs around $250.

Aside from cost, an issue is the third row makes the car heavier and it loses a fair amount of trunk space even when folded down. So it is not a slam dunk decision to include, since it makes the car slightly less competitive as a five seater.

How about make it standard for US for all versions with price targets between $55 and $80k? That would preclude MYP with options and possibly RWD with no options if they sell that in the US. Im not even sure that's a good idea depending on how many people qualify for the tax credit. None of the Y owner's I've met would qualify. Anecdotal yes, but I remain somewhat skeptical.

 

[bkp_duke]

With regard to the IRA, I'm sure this has been discussed, but in case it hasn't we see a LOT of discussion around how the Model Y 5 seater has been classified as a car and thus subject to the $55K max MSRP. I agree that is totally, absurd but all we and Tesla can do is try to protest with the IRS. However, one thing I don't see much is the impact of FSD on eligibility for even the 7 seat version at current pricing. I believe the IRS rules assume the MSRP is inclusive of all options, so if we go to the board a fully loaded Model Y 7 seater prices out like this:

1. $65,990 - Model Y Long Range Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
2. $2,000 - Red Multi-Coat Paint
3. $2,000 - 20’’ Induction Wheels
4. $1,000 - Black and White Premium Interior
5. $3,000 - Seven Seat Interior
6. $0 - Autopilot Included
7. $15,000 - Full Self-Driving Capability
8. $1,000 - Tow Hitch

$89,990 - Total Vehicle Price

This is nearly $10K over even the higher $80 limit! This puts Tesla in a bit of a quandary. The options I see are:

1. Given the take rate of FSD is comparatively lower than other options, they could just say "yep, it's expensive and you lose the credit....sorry".
2. The could drop the base price of the car and other options by $10K to allow room for a $15K FSD. Not ideal, IMO, as this means lower revenue across the board for the few people that will take FSD.
3. They lower the price of FSD to $5K - tough as it is tantamount to saying "Yeah, FSD was never really worth $15K"...not a great message.
4. They do a mix of price lowering across everything (base price and ALL options including FSD.
5. FSD drops as an option and goes pure subscription only or combination of something like $5K purchase which gives you discounted subscriptions for life or whatever.

Unlike the IRS pushback, THIS decision on the 7 seater is totally within Tesla's control and this is the item they need to address ASAP (IMO) since we are in 2023 now and every day they don't address this is a potential lost sale (or at least loss of FSD purchase for those that are at all price sensitive...and, of course, under the income limits).

I might put figuring out the whole long range Model 3 scenario next on the list....and it also has a similar FSD bogey.

Just my 0.02!

Simple, buy FSD (and/or tow hitch) after you take possession of the car. Compromises have to be made.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Looking at the European data Tesla is actually gaining back some market share over the last three years.

2020 was at 13.2%, 2022 was 14.8%.

Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market

All the big Legacy groups see their market shares declining and are even selling less BEV’s in 2022 opposed to 2021.

Tesla sales:

VAG sales:

Hyundai-Kia sales:

Stellantis and Renault-Mitsubishi are even worse.

The big winner in the European market is Geely: