Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Amazing analysis of how Tesla Megapacks will be profitable.

One key is this part: Tesla is the sole provider for which purchasers will qualify for the full IRA credit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611582193309990913

This rabbit hole goes pretty deep...

This doc goes into great detail about bonus PTCs (Production Tax Credits) and ITCs (Investment Tax Credits) with regard to steel from the US to sustainable energy that comes from "low income" groups. When these are stacked up the totals are kinda nuts...

"The bonus ITCs “stack” much like the bonus PTCs. So, for example, a facility that qualifies for both the 10% bonus ITC for an energy community and the 10% bonus ITC for a low-income community will have its energy percentage increased to 50% (i.e., 30% + 10% + 10%)."

 

[oldTAVguy]

What's the continued source of all the volume of shares at these prices? First it was Elon, then it was some whale or institutions that were getting out of TSLA. I think the last one I heard was the forced margin sales. But we've continued to see insane volume like today's 220M shares for weeks. Who is still selling at these prices?

8 MM/Hedgie manipulators using their computers to sell/buy 1000 shares each every second for the day, provides all the volume needed. You would have to throw in 12.8 million legitimately traded shares to come to 200 million total trades. May not be legal but would the SEC even care?

 

[ZeApelido]

Not sure if this has been posted. but I tend to agree with James:-

I fully expect Tesla Energy to be a major contributor one day, but let's wait for solid evidence.

Q4 earnings will also provide very interesting updates on margins, as will the inventor day on Gen3.

Good news is coming, but let's be patient and wait for it to arrive.

First of all, how can I take seriously a video of a dog cuddling with a stuffy?

Absolutely some of the assumption of that twitter account are over the top. The margins and current production rate are way overestimated. He misinterprets Elecktrek's "25 a day" as current rate, not capacity. We have no idea what the current rate is. Our best guess is to listen to what Tesla says, which is energy growth of > 100% YoY. So let's say 15-20 GWh in 2023.

Margin of 70%+ seem absurd I agree. But James quotes Tesla 18 months ago saying they want Energy to have similar margins to Automotive.

That's before the IRA bill came. IRA bill easily can move margins from an original target of 30% to 50% because of the massive credits purchasers gets.

Plus some are trying to build a bottoms up model of COGS. Do you think CATL LiFePo cells would cost more than $100 / kWh?

4000 kWh = $400k for the cells worst case. That's going to be the most expensive part by far. I don't do this sort of modeling, but my hunch is COGs are definitely under $1 million per pack. Tesla is selling them for 2 million. It is the selling price (known) that is crazy, probably not assumptions about COGS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611058023749013504

So let's say more conservatively 50% margins on 15 GWh installed capacity in 2023. At 2 million per pack ASP, that's

~ 7.5 billion in revenue
~ 3.25 in profit
~ $1 in incremental EPS contribution.

That's a meaningful contribution, especially at a time when forecasters are modeling low EPS, EPS growth, and PE ratios to the stock.

It is important, because it will change the outlook from $5 EPS, 25% earnings growth, to $6 EPS, 50% earnings growth.

That will change a basic stock valuation from $125 ($5 * 25 PE ratio) to $300 ($6 * 50 PE ratio) within a year.

That's why understand Megapack value matters so much right now.

 

[Drax7]

Mix in a grain of salt….

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611606587231338500

If true, gotta love price elasticity .

 

[mickle]

Folks, remember that Tesla deleted ultra-sonic sensors (USS) at the start of Q4 production? At ~$200 per harness (w.installation cost, warranty exp) and 405K cars delivered in Q4, that's about -$80M removed from COGS, which will flow straight thru to gross margins.

Zack on Twitter: "BREAKING NEWS: Tesla is transitioning away from ultrasonic sensors and will now completely rely on Tesla Vision! @elonmusk https://t.co/NpZJMsCtuB" / Twitter | Oct 4, 2022

Why Tesla is Removing Ultrasonic Sensors From New Vehicles | by Technality | Tech Topics | Nov, 2022 | Medium

Paging @The Accountant

With release of the new round steering wheel for S & X, I think its pretty obvious we'll see the 3 & Y switching over to that new wheel soon. That will eliminate the stalks and lower the cost also (not sure by how much).

 

[traxila]

It seems that the more leveraged a person is (by their own doing), the more ticked off they are at Elon.

We just saw the bottom as I capitulated in pre market yesterday dropping enough shares at 105 to leave margin behind completely. Was certain we would we see two digits. Was feeling smart as it hit 101 lol. Macros to the rescue!

Reversal to finish positive on high volume is precisely what traders look for in bottoms, so I think the board may be less snippy for a few days going to earnings.

Overall my trading account is down 91.5 % from ATH. Despite successful hedges and endless CCs cashed. But still up 5x from where it started (whaaat?). So yeah, I margined stupidly at the wrong time (Damn those sold puts. What a black hole…). EM’s sales strategically destroyed me. They were like surgical strikes with high tech financial weapons of mass destruction.

Am I ticked at EM, the person who is more responsible for the new BEV world we are about to live in than anyone on the planet? Give me the BEVs, baby. That is all I signed up for, that is what I expect from him. And it is happening!

My money, my trades, my positions, my fault. I will also take the credit when I make it all back!

 

[Xd85]

so. to summarize. all this cry about theoretical WS, madoff exemption, manips, etc only to voluntarily fuel the fire by injecting real margin/leverage into the system?

 

[Artful Dodger]

With release of the new round steering wheel for S & X, I think its pretty obvious we'll see the 3 & Y switching over to that new wheel soon. That will eliminate the stalks and lower the cost also (not sure by how much).

Indeed, they have to start preparing the fleet for FSD/Robotaxi, at least to be compatible or easily upgradable to having no physical controls (I still think it'll be possilbe to drive manually, just with a USB 'gaming' controller).

Regarding the IRA, I wonder if Tesla can configure a version of the dual-motor Model X to qualify under the $80K SUV price cap. I haven't kept up, do you know what is the current cheapest price for a Model X?

Cheers!

 

[GOVA]

In regards to SEC, just saw Madoff on Netflix.

It does show quite well how useless SEC has been and how stupid people are. Recommended.

 

[Xd85]

Indeed, they have to start preparing the fleet for FSD/Robotaxi, at least to be compatible or easily upgradable to having no physical controls (I still think it'll be possilbe to drive manually, just with a USB 'gaming' controller).

Regarding the IRA, I wonder if Tesla can configure a version of the dual-motor Model X to qualify under the $80K SUV price cap. I haven't kept up, do you know what is the current cheapest price for a Model X?

Cheers!

Well over 100K.

 

[Stretch2727]

Good article on how the Japanese are falling behind and loosing market share. Still has the quote that GM will pass Tesla by 2025:-(.

Behind a paywall but I think there are a few free articles a month.

The World’s Love Affair With Japanese Cars Is Souring

Brands like Toyota have been global favorites for decades. How did they get the shift to electric so wrong?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Unpilot]

8 MM/Hedgie manipulators using their computers to sell/buy 1000 shares each every second for the day, provides all the volume needed. You would have to throw in 12.8 million legitimately traded shares to come to 200 million total trades. May not be legal but would the SEC even care?

This video should be time stamped to explain exactly that.

 

[Accident]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611737786549243905

 

[Unpilot]

This video should be time stamped to explain exactly that.

Article to go along with above video.

Authority Allegedly Protecting Retail Investors Screws Them Over

Everyday investors are sick of the nonsense that screwed them over during the GameStop and AMC fiasco, but is it happening again?

thefederalist.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

You are owning a piece of the business, whose intrinsic value is expected to increase over time, which means your piece of the company increases in value, which you can trade easily for cash.

PS:

I don't know whether your son has studied business or microeconomics. But the value of a stock is always npv of dividends plus expected capital appreciation. The above explains the basis of capital appreciation.

We're both devoid of microeconomics in this family, ha... most capital I get tends to depreciate over time. (Exception was our Model Y last summer )

But to your point, Factories, IP, with skills and knowledge are an asset that amplifies the value of the equipment inside, and on the property it owns. Down the road, if Tesla were to never give a dividend nor sell their Factories, then the value is transferred to the consumer through discounted products, no?

Consider some future Peak adoption state where there is no more sales growth and the vehicles are discounted to the bone (not that they would or have a need to, just go with this for a moment). Margin is zero with only cash reserves. One could argue that this is the fastest migration path to BEVs. Here, the value is passed along to the consumer with the planet as beneficiary.

I also see a path that allows Ford or Toyota to continue into the EV space to help accelerate the transition (debatable on efficiency), but that's another topic and why we don't like monopolies vs "fair" competition.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611005779431297025

Did anyone post this? It’s hard to keep up. Tesla Economist mentions TSLA possibly going to $20 with @The Accountant ‘s reply.

 

[Snerruc]

Indeed, they have to start preparing the fleet for FSD/Robotaxi, at least to be compatible or easily upgradable to having no physical controls (I still think it'll be possilbe to drive manually, just with a USB 'gaming' controller).

Regarding the IRA, I wonder if Tesla can configure a version of the dual-motor Model X to qualify under the $80K SUV price cap. I haven't kept up, do you know what is the current cheapest price for a Model X?

Cheers!

$42,000 more than that.

 

[lafrisbee]

Spock Musk Chess move...
Lowering the prices in China is good for sales today but...
Is it also a pre-move? I do not know the dynamics of price relation within a brand for various models but, seems as though if a "car company" has too large a jump between models then the consumer has some mental/financial gyrations that unsettle them. And thus the purchasing decisions.
Think about it... if Tesla sold a $20K car, and the next highest was a $40k car then what do consumers think, and how does it impact demand on each model?
So perhaps a $25k car is "Coming Soon" to CHina.

 

[Snerruc]

There are 50 S’s for sale in Florida! A new record. Either production is way over 100,000 or sales are down the crapper.

 

[InDaClub]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611482719468376080