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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Amazing analysis of how Tesla Megapacks will be profitable.

One key is this part: Tesla is the sole provider for which purchasers will qualify for the full IRA credit.

Not sure if this has been posted. but I tend to agree with James:-

I fully expect Tesla Energy to be a major contributor one day, but let's wait for solid evidence.

Q4 earnings will also provide very interesting updates on margins, as will the inventor day on Gen3.

Good news is coming, but let's be patient and wait for it to arrive.
 
Not sure if this has been posted. but I tend to agree with James:-

I fully expect Tesla Energy to be a major contributor one day, but let's wait for solid evidence.

Q4 earnings will also provide very interesting updates on margins, as will the inventor day on Gen3.

Good news is coming, but let's be patient and wait for it to arrive.
It's been posted 2-3 times already, but good food for thought. But the big thing James is skeptical of (rightly so) is the crazy margins ZeroSumGame keeps talking up. I think most of us are very skeptical of the claims we'll see 60-80% margins. (I certainly am) Tesla management said they were trying to get them in-line with auto which is more realistic.

But there is definitely a lot of smoke around Energy. We've seen a pretty decent volume of product moving out of Lathrop.

As you suggest... really hope we get some more granular guidance on the Q1 call if the business is growing that much it merits some time on the call.
 
An interesting write-up on some cybersecurity folks, how they got interested in hacking into vehicles, and what they found. What is most relevant here is that Tesla is entirely missing from their list of victims. Taken at face value, that seems like good news -- no vulnerabilities to talk about. But of course they could be missing for a variety of other reasons. Anybody have any idea?

Until I hear otherwise, I'm going to assume they were unsuccessful with any attempted Tesla hacks.

The piece documents such charming situations as this.

At this point, a malicious actor could backdoor the 15 million devices, query what ownership information was associated with a specific VIN, retrieve the full user information for all customer accounts, and invite themselves to manage any fleet which was connected to the app.

For our proof of concept, we invited ourselves to a random fleet account and saw that we received an invitation to administrate a US Police Department where we could track the entire police fleet.


... and ...

Full Remote Vehicle Access and Full Account Takeover affecting Honda, Nissan, Infiniti, Acura


Enjoy!
 
An interesting write-up on some cybersecurity folks, how they got interested in hacking into vehicles, and what they found. What is most relevant here is that Tesla is entirely missing from their list of victims. Taken at face value, that seems like good news -- no vulnerabilities to talk about. But of course they could be missing for a variety of other reasons. Anybody have any idea?

Until I hear otherwise, I'm going to assume they were unsuccessful with any attempted Tesla hacks.

The piece documents such charming situations as this.

At this point, a malicious actor could backdoor the 15 million devices, query what ownership information was associated with a specific VIN, retrieve the full user information for all customer accounts, and invite themselves to manage any fleet which was connected to the app.

For our proof of concept, we invited ourselves to a random fleet account and saw that we received an invitation to administrate a US Police Department where we could track the entire police fleet.


... and ...

Full Remote Vehicle Access and Full Account Takeover affecting Honda, Nissan, Infiniti, Acura


Enjoy!
Hackers have been attempting to hack Teslas with various levels of success for years. It might be they didn’t find any vulnerabilities this year. They have definitely played cat and mouse for a few years.
 
What's the continued source of all the volume of shares at these prices? First it was Elon, then it was some whale or institutions that were getting out of TSLA. I think the last one I heard was the forced margin sales. But we've continued to see insane volume like today's 220M shares for weeks. Who is still selling at these prices?
 
What's the continued source of all the volume of shares at these prices? First it was Elon, then it was some whale or institutions that were getting out of TSLA. I think the last one I heard was the forced margin sales. But we've continued to see insane volume like today's 220M shares for weeks. Who is still selling at these prices?
might be that volume is not primarily driven by the number of shares, but rather by the total $ amount traded? As in, if stock price goes down 50% ($200->$100), volume picks up 100% (100M->200M) to keep the total $ amount traded constant? Just a theory -- IDK
 
GM wants the Treasury to consider SUV status for the Lyriq. The 5/7 seat Model Y issue and ID4 qualifying are mentioned as well. The Treasury defended the well-established standards.

 
Folks, remember that Tesla deleted ultra-sonic sensors (USS) at the start of Q4 production? At ~$200 per harness (w.installation cost, warranty exp) and 405K cars delivered in Q4, that's about -$80M removed from COGS, which will flow straight thru to gross margins.

Zack on Twitter: "BREAKING NEWS: Tesla is transitioning away from ultrasonic sensors and will now completely rely on Tesla Vision! @elonmusk https://t.co/NpZJMsCtuB" / Twitter | Oct 4, 2022

Why Tesla is Removing Ultrasonic Sensors From New Vehicles | by Technality | Tech Topics | Nov, 2022 | Medium

Paging @The Accountant
 
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I’m highly skeptical that Tesla received 70k orders in a single day, but if they did, that’s almost a month of production in a single day of orders and they’d have to raise prices back up again. That would imply Tesla cut them too much.

Skeptical, but nice if true.

Orders are always front-loaded after a price drop. I'm perfectly happy to see the order book push out again by several months. Will keep the "demand problem" critics at bay.
 
Maybe, but those of us who believed Tesla's aspirational "500K deliveries in 2020" guidance that they provided in 2014 did very well.
It is one thing to aspire to selling 1/20 as many autos as the world’s top OEM, and a completely different aspiration to sell 2x as many. Tesla might be able to do it, but other outcomes also may happen. Just becoming the world’s top OEM with 10 M annual sales would be a colossal achievement.
 
Orders are always front-loaded after a price drop. I'm perfectly happy to see the order book push out again by several months. Will keep the "demand problem" critics at bay.
I guess if we see Tesla’s projected delivery dates for Shanghai vehicles start extending out beyond a few months, we should expect small price increases until they see a steady state.
 
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Amazing analysis of how Tesla Megapacks will be profitable.

One key is this part: Tesla is the sole provider for which purchasers will qualify for the full IRA credit.

I wouldn't expect that requirement to exclude other battery manufacturers from qualifying. It just means that they'll have to hire electricians and contractors who are union shops. This is very typical of any construction projects that receive federal or state funds.