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My guess: there will be a *sugar* ton of orders that pour in because of the March deadline.

And then Tesla prioritizes those with FSD. Everything else gets pushed back. I see a massive uptick in FSD take rate for Q1. Nice!
There won't be many FSD orders due to the IRA limits. If we look closely at the price cuts vs options, you can pick one minimal option and that's it, wheels or paint in the case of the LR. There's no room for FSD unless you go 7 seat LR.
 
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What a power move though. I don’t see how anyone can compete with this.
No one can compete with this. There are only two saving graces with respect to this Tesla power move from where legacy auto is sitting:

1) Tesla only has two mass-market models, growing to three with the Cybertruck and that needs to ramp from zero.

2) Tesla can only ramp volumes of these three models as fast as they can. And we don't know what the limiting factors are.

My hope is that volumes will ramp in stunning fashion which I think is much more than an outside possibility.
 
Rob with a good summary:

with this banger chart:

218C414B-01D9-42E3-8689-A25CFCD5A5B1.jpeg
 
huh. There were a lot of disagrees on this post from last week. How come?

We all do see this price lowering gonna happens miles away (At least for those who thumbs up).

So right now the "overhang" of price uncertainty is gone and the war is all out.

I bet Civic EX / Corolla LE gonna sell like hotcake now (screenshot below from Jan 2)

corolla.JPG


civic.JPG
 
Let’s keep in mind market and consumer psychology. When people sense a price cut coming, they hold off purchases. If you start seeing small price cuts, people may continue holding out betting that more cuts are coming.

Instead, you rip the bandaid off with big price cuts. Demand goes through the roof. There is no doubt now that no further price cuts are coming.

In the meantime, wait times begin getting longer again. At some point, Tesla must increase prices a bit to stop wait times from getting too long. Because the increase is small, there could start to be a little FOMO to get the price before it goes up further.

Tesla has turned the tables, and its entirely possible that prices may go up in another quarter or so.

This! This is what I like about Tesla's power move. Expect the first price rises to come before Tesla reports Q1 earnings. Perhaps they will add only $1000 per car or so. This will actually stoke demand as people who have been holding off on a purchase realize the price is going the wrong way. Then, depending upon wait lists, they may add more small raises as the year progresses.

Tesla has really planted themselves firmly in the driver's seat once again.
 
I honestly didn't see the price drop as a surprise at all.

Elon has already hinted that Master Plan 3 is about scaling.

How exactly do you sell a $66,000-$70,000 vehicles with 5%+ interest rate while continuing to expand manufacturing capacity? You don't.

The idea is simple. As Tesla continues to expand capacity as all Gigas continue to ramp production capacity, they lower the price in order to accommodate more economy of scale. And when new Gigas are announced and continue lowering the average cost (all fixed costs are spread onto a much greater number), they will achieve either a high margin or keep on lowering prices depending on market conditions.

The alternative would be introducing a lower tier altogether. But I don't think Tesla is in a position to wait for new model to announce, plan the production line out, and scale. The only way for existing Gigas to not be money furnaces is to stretch their production capability to the absolute limit.

Elon has pretty much said it all in his previous Tweets. The price drop simply justify what he said about Tesla is willing to take a lower, and even a negative margin if it meant to scale.

This is truly bad news for competitors. How do you stay competitive with the most efficient and lowest cost market leader in the next 5yrs?
 
Now imagine you’re Ford or GM. How are you feeling?

Tesla’s prices might be at or below your production costs, and for a superior car. Now what do you do?

If I'm Ford or GM, I have no rational choice but to price my cars with a small profit margin and hope that Tesla can't scale quickly enough to prevent me from selling all of my small production runs which would force me to sell off the end of the production runs at break even or a loss. I would also hope the $7500 tax incentive is enough to keep consumers buying my over-priced gasoline/electric hybrids.

After putting those thought down into words I would realize I used the word "hope" a lot more than is healthy. :oops:
 
Price cuts!?! I just picked up my 2023 Model X less than a month ago. This isn’t fair!!! I wanna refund! I know, maybe I’ll organize a protest. Who’s with me?

* checks invoice *

* checks new pricing *

Oops, I take that back. My pricing (X LR, six seats, blue/white, 20” & FSD) ordered Oct 2021 was $37,810 (CDN$) less than the new, lowered price. Sure $8,900 of that is the increase in the FSD pricing, but still the X is considerably more money now than it was 15 months ago, even after these deep price cuts.

Damn, we got a good deal.

Ok, protest is off. Could use the extra sleep anyways…