Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
All he receives is SS, very little FIT withheld. He built and owns his home and lives very frugally.

All I receive in "regular" income is SS, along with long term capital gains when needed.

There are many people in the US who don't pay taxes and with more baby boomers like he & I retiring every year, there will be a lot more in the relatively near future.
I have yet to find a definitive answer, but my understanding is that the IRA tax credit is a "refundable" credit-meaning you get the money even if it's more than you paid in taxes (like the "earned" income tax credit). Could well be wrong.
 
I agree that the prices for the 3 after the tax rebate/credit are pretty damn compelling. However what about those folks that won't owe any taxes? My best friend is retired and normally doesn't owe any FIT (I know as I do his taxes). If the $7,500 were treated as a discount off the price of the car, he'd buy an SR3 in a heartbeat! But not the way it currently works.

The IRA would put way more butts in BEV's if the purchaser had the option of how they received the discount.
Seriously, It's not? Crap, the politicians stated it would. It was supposed to be one of the improvements over the first plan.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: oldTAVguy
Actual question is - which companies can the national governments afford to lose.
I feel like there's a lot to unpack around this, massive car companies can't just go under because they need to be there manufacturing parts and servicing their existing fleets or you could end up with a lot of stranded consumers, transportation declining, the economy cratering badly, etc.

Not sure if these companies are mandated to keep funds or financing or X days of parts available on the side in case of an event like this or what. But if Ford went under and suddenly couldn't provide replacement parts for all the trucks that need fixing every day (hehe), I imagine there would be a massive hit to economic output.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EVNow and Nocturnal
Found this tracker for auto stocks. Not real time but near so. BYD is having a good day for some reason. US Legacy is getting hammered though.

1673633619040.png

1673633644558.png
 
I have yet to find a definitive answer, but my understanding is that the IRA tax credit is a "refundable" credit-meaning you get the money even if it's more than you paid in taxes (like the "earned" income tax credit). Could well be wrong.

You are.

It's not refundable.

You must have tax liability to claim it, and then it offsets that liability 1:1 up to the $7500 max.

This is NOT related to "if you get a refund" or anything about your withholdings, which is where most people get confused.

This is about line 24 on the 1040, not line 37.
 
So suddenly, my big question this morning is do I order a Model Y today? If the answer is yes, I have to decide which of these (under $55K) options:

1. Blue on white interior
2. Red on black interior

I will abide by the results of this poll (kidding, I don't care what you guys think...unless one of you happens to be my wife reading this).
The answer is def yes. Car is unbeatable at $that price. Price can’t really get much better, tax credit is there, go ahead and get in line!
 
Come to think of it, it almost seems that Tesla were a bit underwhelmed by the IRS proposed limit for IRA.

The IRS thought it has all figured out how to benefit Tesla as little as possible with its guidelines. With only GM complaining about its Lyriq, which IMO was more of a show.

Then Tesla was like. Ok, you sure this is all there is to the qualification?

IRS: yes! (Smiling suspiciously)

Tesla: ok…. Now, my turn. (Boom!!!)…. Who’s next?
 
To be fair, they may have taken what their algorithms were telling them for elasticity and tinkered slightly with the Y price so as to leave some room under $55k for color and wheel options. ....that little bit, say, 1k or 1.5k, could have an outsized effect on demand given not everyone wants white.
But I guarantee this is just super intelligent pricing based on the best data they have for projecting demand and the economy. Not that anyone ever gets that right exactly. But its not mainly about slapping around Ford/Hyundai or the tax credit. It’s just smart business.
Elon pulled out a 4d chess move, overall the genius reaction to the changing environment.
Also permissible as he drive down the cost of manufacturing over the years,
again genius .
 
Didn’t TSLA go up after the China price cuts? I thought it was Chinese auto stocks that dropped that day. I may be misremembering as there’s been so many BIG down days lately, so they all seem to run together.

It seems to me Wall Street could buy this move. Clearly signals increased volumes and COGS deflation.

Wall St: "Yada yada... Max Pain". :p

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2023-01-13.13-30.png
 
I feel like there's a lot to unpack around this, massive car companies can't just go under because they need to be there manufacturing parts and servicing their existing fleets or you could end up with a lot of stranded consumers, transportation declining, the economy cratering badly, etc.

Not sure if these companies are mandated to keep funds or financing or X days of parts available on the side in case of an event like this or what. But if Ford went under and suddenly couldn't provide replacement parts for all the trucks that need fixing every day (hehe), I imagine there would be a massive hit to economic output.
Even more than that. Parts manufacturers will have achieved economy of scale by selling to multiple companies will go under if suddenly a major customer can't pay or goes under, which will have a cascading effect. People tend to understand that when a major financial institution goes under, it will have an enormous effect on the economy - but fail to understand what happens if Ford or GM or VW goes under.

Because of all this - and politicians don't like losing elections - major auto companies will not be allowed to close down. They will be protected in one way or another. Only smaller companies that are not vital to "national interests" will be allowed to close down - Mazda, Subaru etc.

If there are multiple major auto companies in a country - which one will be allowed to fail - say among Nissan/Honda/Toyota. Can one of them fail and not cause a wide cascading effect that shuts down lots of suppliers and potentially other OEMs too ? How about Merc/BMW/VW ? I don't really see any of them close down - may be merged, but not closed down.
 
Come to think of it, it almost seems that Tesla were a bit underwhelmed by the IRS proposed limit for IRA.

The IRS thought it has all figured out how to benefit Tesla as little as possible with its guidelines. With only GM complaining about its Lyriq, which IMO was more of a show.

Then Tesla was like. Ok, you sure this is all there is to the qualification?

IRS: yes! (Smiling suspiciously)

Tesla: ok…. Now, my turn. (Boom!!!)…. Who’s next?
Again this is not what happened. The price cuts aren’t related to the IRA tax credits.
The price of the S and X were also dropped about the same amount, depending on model. They don’t qualify for the credits.
This is about current and projected market conditions.
 
However what about those folks that won't owe any taxes? My best friend is retired and normally doesn't owe any FIT (I know as I do his taxes).
Lease should help. The company can claim the tax credit and pass on the savings. Thats how I got Nissan Leaf once for $125 a month.

BTW, it also helps higher earners who don't get tax credit.
 
People focusing on margins, which is knee-jerk reaction... should be recognizing that Tesla just launched predatory pricing in the EV market.. long run, this will crush other EV and ICE manufacturers.. short term discussion is transient

I agree, except the term "predatory pricing" implies a predatory intent. The only prey here are the IRA incentives that were in direct opposition to Musk's stated preferences. Tesla would be foolish to not hunt those incentives down after they were approved anyway. If the other manufacturers who were in favor of IRA incentives feel preyed upon, it is only because their applicable products are inferior and uncompetitive, just as they were before IRA that they helped write. That's on them.

This is not about predatory behavior. What it is doing is exposing the fact that legacy auto was not as good at making cars as we were told. American auto making has not been leading the economy forward for many decades. On the contrary, the inefficient auto industry has been a drag on the American economy for decades as autos have sucked a huge percentage of American resources into the black hole of car payments, insurance, and monthly gasoline bills, sending the money to incompetent auto manufacturers, advertising agencies, and oil producing nations, leaving behind a wake of toxic exhaust causing death, higher healthcare expenses and expensive global warming. They repeatedly told us American car buyers did not want EV's, glorified golf carts, that EV's were impractical, too slow, too cramped, and too expensive. We knew they were lying to us but many of us didn't know how terribly inefficient and incompetent they were, even at making gas cars, until Tesla showed us what an efficient and modern auto company looked like. When an unsubsidized EV is more competitive than a gas car, well, that's your first clue that legacy manufacturers are incompetent, even at making ICE cars.

The very tenents of capitalism that America holds so dear, namely, productivity, efficiency, competitiveness and profitability, the things that cause capitalism to serve humanity so well, that make it the best economic system known, and the only system not known to lead to massive poverty and suffering, those very tenents of capitalism we hold dear, require manufacturers to be efficient, to match the performance of other manufacturers, like Tesla, or get out of the way.

Legacy auto fooled us for decades by telling us how good they were at making cars efficiently, at bringing value to new car buyers, and most of us were none the wiser because their size, scale and dominance prevented anyone else from showing us what was possible, how much better big auto could provide for our transportation needs without bleeding us dry, while pushing up healthcare and insurance expenses while sending huge amounts of money to people who don't have our best interests in mind. Big auto and big oil were like two peas in a pod. Big oil suggested that big auto should make bigger, less efficient cars and they would work their magic with congress to get EPA exemptions for heavy vehicles. Because they are bigger, right? Big oil and big auto were unstoppable in America, no one wanted to say "no" to them, they even spent our money on expensive advertising campaigns to make us think that being wasteful was what made us free Americans, but the American consumer has been paying the price for this corruption of our system called capitalism. Crony capitalism is a greedy bastardization of everything that makes capitalism serve our needs so well to begin with. It's not capitalism, it's crony capitalism. That's like "clean coal", a term invented by crony capitalism.

Half of the decay in American cities is directly attributable to this.

Tesla has, in the last several years, finally made it clear to big auto where they have gone wrong, how terribly inefficient thy are at making cars, gas or electric. Big auto has seen they are losing control of their destiny. This has caused big auto to write a bill named IRA and telling congress to pass it for them. Essentially, they have told big oil that it was fun while the marriage lasted but it was an unsustainable relationship from the get-go and, as you know, the pages of the IRA are essentially the divorce papers, but don't worry, we will remain on friendly terms and still make as many big, heavy, inefficient vehicles as possible, for as long as possible, but now we have a chance at a new life. We might not make it, but we have to try.

Sorry about the long rant but calling Tesla's price cuts in response to the IRA, written by legacy auto and rubber-stamped by congress, "predatory pricing" is the height of irony. I know you had no ill intent, and I love and fully support that the price cuts will have the same effect as a predatory competitor willing to drive their own margins in the ground to harm a competitor, but the price cuts are not predatory, because they lack predatory intent. And Tesla's margins will remain strong. "Predatory pricing" is a term with a well-defined meaning, and that meaning does not apply here, not even a little bit.

Predatory pricing is illegal under anti-trust laws and is an entirely different thing than what you see here.
 
Last edited:
Good morning from Alaska, I just woke up noticed on my Tesla App the Model Y I just bought two days ago at approx $70K received a refund of $10K, thanks Elon. (Long on Hold)
Someone has some dry powder.....Watcha gonna do???
Wouldn't that be epic, take the 10K Tesla gave you back, buy tsla watch it 20x !
 
yeah it Is a meme stock for sure and not what I would invest in, but where i come from a 46% move in $10,000 worth of peanuts is the same thing as a 46% move in $10,000 worth of anything else.

in others words, a 46% move is a 46% move regardless.

And the 61% fall from its high - not sure that Is worthy of crapping on a stock for, especially on a TSLA forum currently (given Tesla -70% off its ATH).
CNBC again on Carvana today, it's down 14% like a brick. They say, profit taking maybe? Lmao, how they can say that with something like short float at 58%.