Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Lease should help. The company can claim the tax credit and pass on the savings. Thats how I got Nissan Leaf once for $125 a month.

BTW, it also helps higher earners who don't get tax credit.

Thanks! Don't know if it will work for him, as he wants to pay cash, but $7,500 is a pretty good incentive!

 

[thx1139]

I agree, except the term "predatory pricing" implies a predatory intent. The only prey here are the IRA incentives that were in direct opposition to Musk's stated preferences. Tesla would be foolish to not hunt those incentives down after they were approved anyway. If the other manufacturers who were in favor of IRA incentives feel preyed upon, it is only because their applicable products are inferior and uncompetitive, just as they were before IRA that they helped write. That's on them.

This is not about predatory behavior. What it is doing is exposing the fact that legacy auto was not as good at making cars as we were told. American auto making has not been leading the economy forward for many decades. On the contrary, the inefficient auto industry has been a drag on the American economy for decades as autos have sucked a huge percentage of American resources into the black hole of car payments, insurance, and monthly gasoline bills, sending the money to incompetent auto manufacturers, advertising agencies, and oil producing nations, leaving behind a wake of toxic exhaust causing death, higher healthcare expenses and expensive global warming. They repeatedly told us American car buyers did not want EV's, glorified golf carts, that EV's were impractical, too slow, too cramped, and too expensive. We knew they were lying to us but many of us didn't know how terribly inefficient and incompetent they were, even at making gas cars, until Tesla showed us what an efficient and modern auto company looked like. When an unsubsidized EV is more competitive than a gas car, well, that's your first clue that legacy manufacturers are incompetent, even at making ICE cars.

The very tenants of capitalism that America holds so dear, namely, productivity, efficiency, competitiveness and profitability, the things that cause capitalism to serve humanity so well, that make it the best economic system known, and the only system not known to lead to massive poverty and suffering, those very tenants of capitalisms we hold dear, require manufacturers to be efficient, to match the performance of other manufacturers, like Tesla, or get out of the way.

Legacy auto fooled us for decades by telling us how good they were at making cars efficiently, at bringing value to new car buyers, and most of us were none the wiser because their size, scale and dominance prevented anyone else from showing us what was possible, how much better big auto could provide for our transportation needs without bleeding us dry, while pushing up healthcare and insurance expenses while sending huge amounts of money to people who don't have our best interests in mind. Big auto and big oil were like two peas in a pod. Big oil suggested that big auto should make bigger, less efficient cars and they would work their magic with congress to get EPA exemptions for heavy vehicles. Because they are bigger, right? Big oil and big auto were unstoppable in America, no one wanted to say "no" to them, they even spent our money on expensive advertising campaigns to make us think that being wasteful was what made us free Americans, but the American consumer has been paying the price for this corruption of our system called capitalism. Crony capitalism is a greedy bastardization of everything that makes capitalism serve our needs so well to begin with. It's not capitalism, it's crony capitalism. That's like "clean coal", a term invented by crony capitalism.

Half of the decay in American cities is directly attributable to this.

Tesla has, in the last several years, finally made it clear to big auto where they have gone wrong, how terribly inefficient thy are at making cars, gas or electric. Big auto has seen they are losing control of their destiny. This has caused big auto to write a bill named IRA and telling congress to pass it for them. Essentially, they have told big oil that it was fun while the marriage lasted but it was an unsustainable relationship from the get-go and, as you know, the pages of the IRA are essentially the divorce papers, but don't worry, we will remain on friendly terms and still make as many big, heavy, inefficient vehicles as possible, for as long as possible, but now we have a chance at a new life. We might not make it, but we have to try.

Sorry about the long rant but calling Tesla's price cuts in response to the IRA, written by legacy auto and rubber-stamped by congress, "predatory pricing" is the height of irony. I know you had no ill intent, and I love and fully support that the price cuts will have the same effect as a predatory competitor willing to drive their own margins in the ground to harm a competitor, but the pricing cuts are not predatory, because they lack predatory intent. And Tesla's margins will remain strong. "Predatory pricing" is a term with a well-defined meaning, and that meaning does not apply here, not even a little bit.

Predatory pricing is illegal under anti-trust laws and is an entirely different thing than what you see here.

Lots of truth in there, but dont see how legacy auto wrote IRA. Hell if anything IRA not existing is what legacy auto wanted. Let petroleum industry get subsidies and screw EVs. Thats what legacy auto wanted.

 

[Gigapress]

It just keeps rising...Model Y going viral today.

50% increase in search interest in just the last six hours. Up about 12x since before the prices were slashed.

North American interest peaked early this morning but remains an order of magnitude above baseline.

Europeans now driving search interest growth as they wake up and see the news, I guess. Extremely heavy interest in Norway and Denmark for whatever reason, like 4-6x more than other European countries.

All four S3XY models experienced major increases today, however the effect today has been less strong for Model 3, S & X than for Y, which is in line with the idea that this indicates price elasticity of demand. Y had bigger price cuts than the 3, and S&X are in a more price-insensitive high luxury market segment.

Search interest for Tesla the company is triple the previous baseline.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Thanks! Don't know if it will work for him, as he wants to pay cash, but $7,500 is a pretty good incentive!

I don't know if this is true, but I heard Tesla is starting to allow people to purchase their vehicle at lease end on new leases. If true, he could lease, make 1 or 2 payments, then pay it off early by stroking a check for the payoff plus taxes, since on a lease your taxes are paid monthly over the lease term.

 

[wipster]

Thanks mate, will investigate

I don't know if this is true, but I heard Tesla is starting to allow people to purchase their vehicle at lease end on new leases. If true, he could lease, make 1 or 2 payments, then pay it off early by stroking a check for the payoff plus taxes, since on a lease your taxes are paid monthly over the lease term.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Actually, during the Model Y ramp, which began in January of 2020, Tesla's gross margins were not "heavily negative." In Q120 and Q220 both automotive gross margin and total GAAP gross margin were over 20% (see Q2 2020 slide deck).

Not to be nitpicky, just saying. I feel this just strengthens your argument that gross margins stay comfortably above 20%.

You're misreading/misinterpreting the whole point of what I said. Model Y gross margins were absolutely heavily negative when it was first starting production but Model 3/S/X production volume was able to absorb the negative hit on margins to a large degree. That's why you saw gross margins dip but not go negative or dramatically drop compared to when the Model 3 ramped, where only the S/X production was going and thus the negative margins from the 3 ramp heavily impacted Tesla's overall gross margin, operating margin, net income, and FCF.

 

[ZeApelido]

Gary Black on Spaces just said with his model he doesn't expect margins to go below 24%.

 

[Fred42]

Finally the website mentions the $7500 tax credit although I am puzzled why they dont mention it in the potential savings popup.

The $7500 US tax credit only applies to deliveries until some date in March, and people who order today might not get their car that fast.

 

[EVNow]

Lots of truth in there, but dont see how legacy auto wrote IRA. Hell if anything IRA not existing is what legacy auto wanted. Let petroleum industry get subsidies and screw EVs. Thats what legacy auto wanted.

GM wanted tax credits to continue. Only GM/Tesla were not getting credits.

But - the treasury left out Lyriq in their tax credit (i.e. it has a $55k limit), just like they did for Model Y. Lobbyists can only influence so far

But GM is complaining and if Lyriq gets included, that increases the chances of Model Y included as well in the SUV list.

Feds Say Cadillac Lyriq Isn't An SUV, Don't Give It Tax Credit

The government snubbed the Lyriq and many other EVs.

carbuzz.com

 

[EVNow]

I would love to see new colors rotated in. A green would be nice. Then I might get motivated to trade mine in. I want that new suspension but just can’t get motivated to reset the payment counter.

Not letting us carryover FSD is a major hindrance to ungrading. I'd have upgraded otherwise (well, when SP was high!).

 

[thesmokingman]

The $7500 US tax credit only applies to deliveries until some date in March, and people who order today might not get their car that fast.

This is why inventory cars are disappearing.

 

[navguy12]

Tesla seems confident in this.
View attachment 895243

I’ve dealt with the CRA (Canadian IRS) ”after the fact” WRT what was stated in a manufacturer marketing kit and what was actually my bottom line tax burden.

Every person should get some sort of independent verification of this from the appropriate directorate.
YMMV

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Nice

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613914621337034753

 

[Artful Dodger]

huh. There were a lot of disagrees on this post from last week. How come?

Well, you got a funny from me on this one because you clearly are missing how Tesla manages supply 'n' demand via their prices:

• Tesla increased prices in 2022 because demand far exceeded supply
• investments in capacity (via increased profits) results in higher supply
• Tesla decreases (normalizes) prices in 2023 to match demand to new supply
• rinse, repeat, when Models 2/Z come out
• this takes Tesla to 10M/yr volume, and yes
• Pricing will still be used to make Demand == Supply

This really is ECON 101 stuffs: (HTHs)




Cheers!

 

[thesmokingman]

Source?

People routinely do this just to save money on new license plates. They register using an existing license plate with one person's name on it, use the plate for joint purchase, then remove the original owner of the license plate.

EV incentive fraud is actually huge. Your variation is a lil different from the typical case, but it still qualifies as fraud because a person who doesn't qualify uses a front for the incentive.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

GREAT to see such a busy, positive forum here today

I've been monitoring the US inventory throughout the day, it's dropping fast. I wouldn't be suprised if by the end of the weekend inventory will all be sold out (again)!
(It's currently at 400 for M3 and 750 for MY)

Please let us know. Interesting.

 

[StealthP3D]

Lots of truth in there, but dont see how legacy auto wrote IRA. Hell if anything IRA not existing is what legacy auto wanted. Let petroleum industry get subsidies and screw EVs. Thats what legacy auto wanted.

Maybe you are unaware who writes the bills congress signs. These are paid lobbyists and the language has legacy auto written all over it. They work directly with congressional staffers to write the bills.

If you think environmentalists wrote this bill you have to wonder why so many of the $7500 credits will go directly to ICE hybrid vehicles.

 

[navguy12]

There are optional wheels on the lower range model so the base price might be different.

I would find it a stretch if the cost of the upgrade wheels was equivalent to the cost of the upgrade range.

But stranger things have happened.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tracker is showing Model Y US inventory dropped from 1800 to 1000 overnight. I'm not thinking the punishment today will be too severe. Hopefully that's not wishful thinking.

United States Tesla All inventory

This is the All inventory for cars in United States. The inventory is taken from Tesla directly and refreshed every few minutes, we also explicitly differentiate between New and Demo cars both of which Tesla list as New. In many countries we also gather used cars from various sources. We allow...

tesla-info.com

FSD take rate may increase from here as well.

Now down to 652.

I've been watching X, S, and 3 on that list as well. X and S are slow trending down.

3 is down to 356, was over 500 just 2 hours ago.

 

[verystandard]

It just keeps rising...Model Y going viral today.

50% increase in search interest in just the last six hours. Up about 12x since before the prices were slashed.

North American interest peaked early this morning but remains an order of magnitude above baseline.

Europeans now driving search interest growth as the wake up and see the news, I guess. Extremely heavy interest in Norway and Denmark for whatever reason, like 4-6x more than other European countries.


View attachment 895344

The order/trend only goes bigger and bigger, just like when you think the "sun" is big enough like the video below: