Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

Tesla has been selling all they can make … that means other manufacturers don’t need to compete with Tesla on price.

If people want Tesla, they will have to wait. Otherwise they can get non-Teslas quickly.

A few days ago a neighbor told me he was going to be taking delivery of an inventory Model 3 SR yesterday.

He said he was originally looking for a PHEV or other BEV but there was no availability. The $7500 tax credit was a factor too.

This price drop may again create backlogs for Tesla, but I wouldn’t bet on other manufacturers being able to step in and make lots of sales (assuming they and their dealers even want to make that many sales of plug-ins)

 

[Mengy]

Gary Black on Spaces just said with his model he doesn't expect margins to go below 24%.

Yeah, I've done some playing around in my spreadsheet model this morning looking forward into 2023 and the results have surprised me.

Given Tesla COGS and the cost to make the cars, with expected production in 2023 the margins don't fall as much as I initially thought they would with these reduced prices. And if cost of each model reduces a bit, which Tesla has stated is happening, then it gets even better.

Economies of Scale in action. I think these price cuts might have been a 4D chess move of epic proportions.

 

[SunCatcher]

It just keeps rising...Model Y going viral today.

50% increase in search interest in just the last six hours. Up about 12x since before the prices were slashed.

North American interest peaked early this morning but remains an order of magnitude above baseline.

Europeans now driving search interest growth as the wake up and see the news, I guess. Extremely heavy interest in Norway and Denmark for whatever reason, like 4-6x more than other European countries.


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If this move doesn't put Elon & Co. into the Gangsta Genius Hall of Fame, I don't know what will. I think it's time that Elon does what all Gangsta Geniuses do; start getting new tattoos for his strategic battlefield victories. This price cut move was a remarkable show of genius. 4-D Chess Checkmate indeed!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why do a price cut in Europe when there is certainly not a demand issue here?

Simple. Elon loves you. He wants your family in the world's safest car.

Joe Rogan Elon Musk - Love is the answer | YouTube (from Sep 07, 2018)

 

[thx1139]

Come to think of it, it almost seems that Tesla were a bit underwhelmed by the IRS proposed limit for IRA.

The IRS thought it has all figured out how to benefit Tesla as little as possible with its guidelines. With only GM complaining about its Lyriq, which IMO was more of a show.

Then Tesla was like. Ok, you sure this is all there is to the qualification?

IRS: yes! (Smiling suspiciously)

Tesla: ok…. Now, my turn. (Boom!!!)…. Who’s next?

And yet amazingly it benefitted Tesla more than any other. Show me what car manufacturer it helped more?

 

[jw934]

Megapack is sold out until Q3 2024

Now it is sold out until Q4 2024

 

[Nocturnal]

And yet amazingly it benefitted Tesla more than any other. Show me what car manufacturer it helped more?

Incompetence and malice are not mutually exclusive.

 

[thx1139]

Maybe you are unaware who writes the bills congress signs. These are paid lobbyists and the language has legacy auto written all over it. They work directly with congressional staffers to write the bills.

If you think environmentalists wrote this bill you have to wonder why so many of the $7500 credits will go directly to ICE hybrid vehicles.

How many times does it need to be pointed out that those ICE hybrid vehicles already got the $7500 tax credit before IRA. I will have to find my post from a week or so ago which showed how many units those cars that the IRS lists as eligible sold last year with a $7500 tax credit. Hint: Not much.

Edit: Found pretty quick. This sure looks like sales that will go through the roof now that these cars still get the $7500 tax credit.

2022 Sales for PHEVs included in IRA
Jeep Wrangler 4xe 46,176
Pacifica PHEV Minivan 14,392
Grand Cherokee 4xe 5,813
Audi Q5 TFSI e Quattro (PHEV) - Couldnt find any sales numbers for this car. Audi total EV sales 16,177
BMW X5 xDrive45e - Cant find any break down of BMW sales
Ford Escape PHEV - Can only find sales for all Escapes and that was 128K.
Volvo S60 (PHEV) - Volvo plug ins sold 9,216.

 

[thesmokingman]

You know what, this is the first down day where I have not seen any complaints, or you know other... how strange.

 

[thx1139]

Incompetence and malice are not mutually exclusive.

I dont care. I care that Tesla benefitted far more than any other manufacturer and IRA is bringing down the cost of ownership for EVs and Tesla will benefit the most. Remember it isnt just the $7500 tax credit.

 

[ZsoZso]

Good question. This one really shocked me... I expected LR AWD to come back at this price point- and with the $7500 credit would be a fast seller-- and leaving room to cut the P but still be above the credit, to create a gap between em.

The P price is a huge cut though, so I dunno what's up there.... simplification of MFG I guess since they just put the red brakes and 20" wheels on everything with an LR battery?

AWD is still listed just greyed out and still just says available in 2023 which is even weirder.

Isn't the difference between LR-AWD and P just software for the model 3?
There was some motor binning in addition to software, i.e. same specs but those units that pass tighter tolerances are used for P -- something that maybe eliminated by streamlined / improved manufacturing where all motors produced are now fitting the P tolerances.
So, why not get the extra money for the P if that production cost is the same anyway.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So suddenly, my big question this morning is do I order a Model Y today? If the answer is yes, I have to decide which of these (under $55K) options:

1. Blue on white interior
2. Red on black interior

I will abide by the results of this poll (kidding, I don't care what you guys think...unless one of you happens to be my wife reading this).

It is down to that, which is how they're limiting demand is my guess. They'll let you have 1 minor change is all. My order was in fact blue with white interior and see it's now under 55k. My order also had FSD for 12K vs 15K. This could be deal of the year, but still waiting for a new offer as they are still working on it. I can't imagine what this just did to the value of our existing vehicles. I feel like I should buy the dip here. Sale could go away.

I wonder how the Mach-e compares? Their top performing offering is about equivalent to the Model Y, no rebates... too much $$$. Do you think Ford will dare with their own price drops?

 

[UkNorthampton]

You know what, this is the first down day where I have not seen any complaints, or you know other... how strange.

Feels like victory.

 

[FielderJones]

Last night there were 33 Model Ys in the Chicagoland area in inventory. Right now there are 21.

Now only 12 left, all over $55k — tow hitch, induction wheels, performance.

 

[Ipcress]

OT, i know. but it was served up just so!
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Completely fabulous!

 

[Ipcress]

Feels like victory.

Smells like victory!

 

[advocate8]

The order/trend only goes bigger and bigger, just like when you think the "sun" is big enough like the video below:

The correlation between orders and internet searches about the price cuts will obviously not be one to one and is likely to be real but modest at best. A lot of that traffic is basically every last person who searched for Tesla pricing in past year or so, and now hearing some firm news, wants to look again.
And also probably every last owner like me who bought in the last 7-8 months is doing a “WTH!” doom search to see how bad they blew their timing, in actual dollars. And wondering about the meaning of that instantly lost $10k or whatever in resale value.
Thank god my TSLA holdings are down enough to distract me.

 

[Atomsla]

Europeans now driving search interest growth as they wake up and see the news, I guess. Extremely heavy interest in Norway and Denmark for whatever reason, like 4-6x more than other European countries.

My man, what time do you think Europeans wake up? dinnertime?

 

[SN_8]

CNBC host just now: "What do you do about TSLA?"

Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler: "TSLA is 70% off it's highs. It's way oversold on an RSI basis. We expect a relief rally.... I would sell it here."

 

[thesmokingman]

CNBC host just now: "What do you do about TSLA?"

Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler: "TSLA is 70% off it's highs. It's way oversold on an RSI basis. We expect a relief rally.... I would sell it here."

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Lmao, I was watching that segment too. And punchline was one of those lol wut moments.