Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

It just keeps rising...Model Y going viral today.

50% increase in search interest in just the last six hours. Up about 12x since before the prices were slashed.

North American interest peaked early this morning but remains an order of magnitude above baseline.

Europeans now driving search interest growth as they wake up and see the news, I guess. Extremely heavy interest in Norway and Denmark for whatever reason, like 4-6x more than other European countries.


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All four S3XY models experienced major increases today, however the effect today has been less strong for Model 3, S & X than for Y, which is in line with the idea that this indicates price elasticity of demand. Y had bigger price cuts than the 3, and S&X are in a more price-insensitive high luxury market segment.

Search interest for Tesla the company is triple the previous baseline.

True but current interest appears to be lower than the interest we saw when Tesla announced the 7500 rebate on Dec 21st. My guess is interest will peak this weekend as friends tell other friends about the price drops.

 

[MP3Mike]

If the IRA tax credits are locked in on order—rather than at the time of purchase—and iirc they are, then Tesla might lock in orders for most of the year.

Pretty sure that isn't how it works. The date the vehicle is put into service is what counts. But, for last year if you had a binding contract for a vehicle that predated the change you could use the old rules. But a Tesla contract isn't a binding contract, because the consumer has very little, $250, at risk. Maybe if Tesla took payment up front, or the contract required you to follow through with the purchase at that price it would be different. But it isn't.

So, take delivery soon, before the next IRS guidance comes out, which will likely cut the tax credit in half for most, and eliminate it for some, like the Model 3 RWD.

 

[bkp_duke]

Isn't the difference between LR-AWD and P just software for the model 3?
There was some motor binning in addition to software, i.e. same specs but those units that pass tighter tolerances are used for P -- something that maybe eliminated by streamlined / improved manufacturing where all motors produced are now fitting the P tolerances.
So, why not get the extra money for the P if that production cost is the same anyway.

Suspension is different. It's not just software.

 

[Gigapress]

True but current interest appears to be lower than the interest we saw when Tesla announced the 7500 rebate on Dec 21st. My guess is interest will peak this weekend as friends tell other friends about the price drops.

It looks like Google trends is showing that due to not updating this whole week yet. The spike in the 4th week of December was 1.8x the long-term baseline. Today's spike is more like 10x the new, higher baseline established in the last couple weeks. We'll have to wait and see next week as more data comes out.

 

[thesmokingman]

Suspension is different. It's not just software.

All the changes are minor, the real nuts and bolts difference is the motor and inverter setup. You can swap or change all the other fancy bits, but nothing will make a LR into P due to the motor.

 

[elasalle]

If next round or IRA makes 5 seater a SUV and eligible for 80K, will this be the cheapest 3 mths for MY?
( ... something to ponder for folks )

 

[thx1139]

Obviously, legacy auto lobbyists wanted to ensure PHEV's would continue to get the $7500 subsidies. That shouldn't be difficult to understand. PHEV sales reduces the sales of BEV's and PHEV production reduces the number of BEV's that can be built because the batteries are interchangeable between the two. IRA successfully extends PHEV subsidies for as long as IRA remains law. What part of that do you not understand?

I guess the part I dont understand is how less then 100K sales across 5 manufacturers helps the legacy auto industry to any meaningful extent.

 

[EVNow]

Is this a thing to just have all your TMC comments be reposts of your Twitter?

Interesting ... I think I had one Tweet of mine I posted that was deleted with the note that this was against policy. Apparently doesn't happen to other posters

 

[StealthP3D]

I guess the part I dont understand is how less then 100K sales across 5 manufacturers helps the legacy auto industry to any meaningful extent.

They want to ramp PHEV sales higher to ease the transition to EV's, which they still can't produce profitably. I'm not saying that I think it will be a great help, but they do need any help they can get.

Legacy auto has a different mindset than we do here. So don't be surprised if they still believe in "range anxiety" and that they need a steady or increasing stream of PHEV sales to gently get their customers used to EV's (and to keep them away from buying a Tesla while they work on ramping EV production to meaningful levels). PHEV's are actually pretty expensive to build (for what you get) so if the subsidies went away, most PHEV's are instantly not viable to continue manufacturing.

 

[thx1139]

They want to ramp PHEV sales higher to ease the transition to EV's, which they still can't produce profitably. I'm not saying that I think it will be a great help, but they do need any help they can get.

Legacy auto has a different mindset than we do here. So don't be surprised if they still believe in "range anxiety" and that they need a steady or increasing stream of PHEV sales to gently get their customers used to EV's (and to keep them away from buying a Tesla while they work on ramping EV production to meaningful levels). PHEV's are actually pretty expensive to build (for what you get) so if the subsidies went away, most PHEV's are instantly not viable to continue manufacturing.

They already had the $7500 tax credit. So the state they are in is exactly the same situation, but now pure EVs particularly Tesla gets the $7500 credit as well.

Dont get me wrong I dont want PHEVs to get the $7500 tax credit. Still the PHEVs continuing to get tax credit isnt some miracle savior for legacy auto and wont hurt Tesla sales at all and isnt that people in here really care about. Lets be honest.

 

[lascavarian]

Beat Max Pain again and for the week. Bullish as I see it.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Interesting ... I think I had one Tweet of mine I posted that was deleted with the note that this was against policy. Apparently doesn't happen to other posters

@ZeApelido is secretly EM... I can't believe you of all people didn't know this.
So you could say he gets more latitude than the rest of us.

 

[thesmokingman]

They already had the $7500 tax credit. So the state they are in is exactly the same situation, but now pure EVs particularly Tesla gets the $7500 credit as well.

Toyota ran out of credits, but now they can keep pumping out the PHEV crap.

 

[Prunesquallor]

They want to ramp PHEV sales higher to ease the transition to EV's, which they still can't produce profitably. I'm not saying that I think it will be a great help, but they do need any help they can get.

Legacy auto has a different mindset than we do here. So don't be surprised if they still believe in "range anxiety" and that they need a steady or increasing stream of PHEV sales to gently get their customers used to EV's (and to keep them away from buying a Tesla while they work on ramping EV production to meaningful levels). PHEV's are actually pretty expensive to build (for what you get) so if the subsidies went away, most PHEV's are instantly not viable to continue manufacturing.

I wonder if someone did the calculations to see if subsidizing hybrids - allowing OEMs to limp along for another decade - is more cost efficient than a gov’t bailout in three years.

 

[StealthP3D]

Let us see where Tesla Energy is in 5-years time and what has happened. The truth will be in the data.

It's heartening to see that even someone who thought it was a lost cause, that Tesla had already blown their chances, can turn around and become, at least a little, more open-minded and not so doggedly sure it had already failed.

 

[thx1139]

Toyota ran out of credits, but now they can keep pumping out the PHEV crap.

Toyota doesnt have any cars listed that qualify.

 

[ggr]

Interesting ... I think I had one Tweet of mine I posted that was deleted with the note that this was against policy. Apparently doesn't happen to other posters

Mod: This is a gray area. If you are doing it to self-promote and drive people to another platform, yes, it's against policy. If it's a quick way to disseminate timely information, we don't care so much. But that's subject to interpretation by the mod in question, and we do make mistakes at times. And sometimes we don't realize or notice that it's the same person. --ggr

 

[SN_8]

@ZeApelido is secretly EM... I can't believe you of all people didn't know this.
So you could say he gets more latitude than the rest of us.

And not once have I seen @ZeApelido link to his own tweets. He only links to tweets by some guy named Joe.

 

[StealthP3D]

I wonder if someone did the calculations to see if subsidizing hybrids - allowing OEMs to limp along for another decade - is more cost efficient than a gov’t bailout in three years.

Interesting thought. If they did that analysis, I think they probably did it wrong. I base this on how few people actually understand how disruption works. And it's almost always better to just let failing companies fail because their talent can always be hired by new, more efficient companies. Preventing renewal from happening is much worse than the impacts from major players going bankrupt.

The real problem is the assumption built into that question, that there are only two acceptable paths, helping them now, or helping them later.

 

[Ogre]

I wonder if someone did the calculations to see if subsidizing hybrids - allowing OEMs to limp along for another decade - is more cost efficient than a gov’t bailout in three years.

This won’t work.

Hybrids are a dead end at this point. Companies investing in hybrid tech at this point are throwing good money after bad.

Tesla is already squeezing hybrids out of the market in the markets they compete in. I think the Cybertruck will squeeze the larger end of the hybrid market hard. With 6 seats, the Cybertruck effectively competes with both trucks and large SUVs. It’s not a true 7 seat vehicle, but close enough and with tons of utility.

If Tesla prices the Cybertruck as aggressively as the launch and current Tesla pricing suggests, there will be little to no room price-wise for ICE PHEVs.