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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I am not that excited about the prospect of Tesla taking a monopoly of the market. The government will definitely take action to prevent a monopoly and potentially screw up a lot of good things.
consumer protection laws aren't designed to prevent monopolies, they are designed to protect against anti-competitive/anti-consumer behaviour. What are Tesla doing that's anti-consumer anti-compete? Lowering prices? Best value product in market? open sourcing patents?
 
Based on the reactions to my post, I've realized some people are simply holding on to so much that a price drop would be too heart-wrenching. I should've taken this into account when posting. Don't mean to wish harm on anybody.

2023 will likely play out in one of two ways:

1) We get a soft landing, the bottom is mostly in right now, and TSLA (along with the market) gradually goes up from here.

2) The Fed keeps hiking rates despite inflation trending down right now, Powell overcorrects and crashes the market HARD, thus resulting in most of the market (and TSLA) going down even lower than we've already seen, sub $100 most likely. BUT only for a short time because if this happens the Fed would probably U-turn immediately to reverse the damage ASAP. And TSLA goes up from there.

Either way, if someone wanted to buy TSLA at a cheap price in 2023 then I'd start buying now, because it likely won't go much lower than this, and if it does it won't be down there for very long at all. In my opinion.
 
If you're talking about SP...
crying-laughing (1).gif

Current mood.
 
Oh we are on the path. If no one else can compete with Tesla, what do you think is going to happen?

The Chinese have shown they can compete. There won't be a monopoly, it's a moot point.

And you do realize that monopolies are NOT illegal, right? I encourage you to re-read the Sherman Anti-Trust Act.

We've got TONS of monopolies right now - utility companies anyone?
 
consumer protection laws aren't designed to prevent monopolies, they are designed to protect against anti-competitive/anti-consumer behaviour. What are Tesla doing that's anti-consumer anti-compete? Lowering prices? Best value product in market? open sourcing patents?
You should look up the concept of regulatory capture.

Quite a huge chunks of consumer protection laws are in fact monopoly protections. When the laws to protect consumers are written by the lobbyists who work for the industry you are protecting them from…
 
What is the actual distribution for customers who :
Would buy PLAID 3/Y?
Would buy 500 mile range 3/Y
~10% of Models 3 are sold in the current "Performance" livery. I'd expect that to continue as long as a new spec car offers performance gains conmensurate with the price increase.

For plaid 3/Y, Tesla wants people to buy S/X Plaid.
BMW sells both and M5 and an M3. They don't overlap, they augment while providing choices.

For 500 mile range, we might see an option eventually.
Again, the battery chemistry which would allow this is likely to arrive near the end of this decade, not anytime soon. So it's not possible right now. Further, Elon said with the expanded Supercharger network, the optimal max range for a car is about 400 miles. Otherwise, you're dragging extra battery weight around all year vs the 2 days (or weeks) a year when you actually USE the extra range. It's a poor trade-off for the vast majority of users.
 
Unfortunately (or more likely, by design), there's not an ready, in-the-parts-bin option to build a 500 mile range Model Y. Perhaps the becomes possible with Gen-3 4680 cells, but ~375 Wh/kg is needed. That's years off (Elon said ~400 WH/kg enables electric jets).

On the other hand, the hypothetical Model 3 Plaid I referred to upthread can be added to production quickly, built with already available parts simply by tweeting the supply chain. I suspect that gross margins on a Plaid Model 3 would be extremely attractive. So that's my interest for a new announcement in the near term, to help smooth out 2023 gross margins.

Cheers!
Not only the price but in the Tesla case the costs not significant because, according to Munro's Cory even the motors are effectively the same between Model and Model S Plaid.
There are relatively modest changes such as the famous P85D incomes fuse that allowed much more precise temperature measurement thus could use more rapid discharge, hence the increased power that made Ludicrous.

For other OEM's it is expensive to make different models. For Tesla it is a process of increased precision and thus higher power that makes a Plaid. That can be done on any Tesla by mimicking what they already did for the Model S and X Plaids.

Think of the Gross Margin without significant negative impact on warranty costs!
 
Not only the price but in the Tesla case the costs not significant because, according to Munro's Cory even the motors are effectively the same between Model and Model S Plaid.

It's even better than that - it looks like, except for some moderate changes, the motor is the same throughout the line. Even the Semi uses the Plaid motors and inverters (which are just modified 3/Y motors and inverters). That level of scale efficiency should really keep other OEMs up at night.