Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

Agreed. It simply narrowed the available market for consumer purchases.

I had a neighbor ready to get a Tesla. She now adamantly refuses and will wait and pay more for Mercedes to get their EQB to market.

I'd expect that's an example of a lifetime customer loss right there. And she's not gonna be the only one.

...

If we only had a pill to cure stupidity and ignorance.
I have several neighbors that wait for EV Jeeps and some other smoke. Those are irrelevant for Tesla.

Happy Spring Festival, everyone!

Hope PETA will not sue as a proxy for oil lords like this 420 "lawsuit"

Many years ago (57 to be precise) I drove extensively in New York County as part of my job.
Then it was difficult to drive without excessive caution. Every experience since then has been more demanding, especially since the long ago collapse of the West Side Highway. That is relevant precisely because no fully autonomous vehicle has even approached ability to drive there. Most large urban areas are similarly difficult, but the most valuable robotaxi markets are central cities, many of them more difficult than NYC, like Rome, Tokyo, Mexico City, São Paulo not to mention Karachi, Beijing, or Cairo. All of those are prime robotaxi markets.

Optimistic most of us are, but real autonomy is probably more likely with restricted access highway hauling for freight than is any urban market.

We have nearly endless technical discussions, but the reality is that even geofenced operations have not been successfully safe. The conclusion inescapable is that sometime, maybe, but this is beginning to be like fusion reactors.

I hope I'm wrong, but using Tesla's since 2015 first autopilot efforts I've experienced huge progress, exciting by each one. Wonderful, but not anywhere close to point to point urban navigation, not even in the US' largest city, Jacksonville, FL that is mostly wooded and sparsely populated, but they've a difficult center city too and even the latest released version cannot do that without interventions.

I hope somebody has evidence that this is incorrect conclusion. I dislike my own conclusion.

This will not be an issue once all vehicles use autonomy and roads are designed properly.

A quote from @Papafox daily chart analysis: Here.

“What is so strange about the options volumes on Wednesday is all the action in the 160s and higher puts. I have no idea why”

Does anyone have any insight on the implications of this? Thanks in advance.

If @Papafox is asking questions, that is a new chapter in here. What a time to be alive!

 

[Nocturnal]

If we only had a pill to cure stupidity and ignorance.
I have several neighbors that wait for EV Jeeps and some other smoke. Those are irrelevant for Tesla.

Yup. Can't abide Elon but is happy to fill the gas tank every day with gasoline that directly supports Putin and the Saudis. That's a lot of virtue signaling, but if you are paying attention it signals the wrong virtues.

 

[scaesare]

Thanks for the summary.

I may need to go watch, but I don't understand this.

An AWD vehicle would need half shafts, unless:

1) It has a solid axle (no way Tesla is doing this)

2) It has 2 motors at that location, both Left and Right... as far as I know that's only on the rear for the Plaid


I wonder if he was referring to something in a different context...

OK, I just listened to this and it's context. Reading the summary, I understood those points to be about the AWD version. Listening to the podcast he's talking about the cost reduction with unneeded components for a RWD flavor.

 

[SOULPEDL]

CEO of Qualcomm explains the changes in the auto and other industries in supplier relationship to ensure shortages should never happen again for competent OEMs.

In short, my understanding of the auto industry chip shortage was caused when the pandemic hit and OEMs reduced their supplier orders, and those suppliers reduced their chip orders, which caused the chip manufacturers to divert their chip manufacturing schedule to other customers. But once diverted or for worse shutdown of legacy manufacturing capacity, it is not possible for chip makers to change their commitment to other customers and quickly restart the making of auto chips.

The change in auto OEM/chip supplier relationship is simply that auto OEMs are now forming direct relationship with the chip industry to ensure this never happens again.

He said that currently, for the most part, there is no chip shortage for the auto industry, and none with Qualcomm.

Other points discussed in the interview:
- Qualcomm makes chips in the 4nm through 100nm sizes for cellular through power applications
- China remains a important supplier of the legacy technology chips

Link to YouTube segment starting at 3m07s where he talks about chip supply process for auto OEMs

I didn't see the video, but it takes less than 2 years to spin up a new order of chips. At first you'll see that I don't believe them, but as I continued writing, I think I see the problem. It's maybe cost and a lack of pricing leverage for large orders IMHO. Inventory reduction also means only buy what you need and that's a loss in leverage for the best pricing. The spec on auto tends to be higher temperatures due to engine heat... hmmm, worthy of some rhetoric?

I'm repeating myself, but since COVID, I was able to secure many chips as I saw supply return with only 9 months lead-time in my worst case. Obviously I don't do volume sales, but I don't buy these chip shortage excuses either. Sure, pockets of parts missing, get another one silly. The only chips that you lock in on are typically the processor/platform and I was even able to work around that by using a slightly larger chip is all (a bit more $). Processors have families, go for the older cousin if needed.

Here's the rub I bet... cost. That larger chip costs more (than the one currently in use, and at well negotiated pricing in past years). So contracts expired and leverage was lost. I can only imagine the chaos in trying to source parts for their EV lines on a very tight budget... good luck folks!

Plus, when your suppliers are all using their own coders and builders, you get a kitchen full of cooks and a hot mess. I doubt there was commonality built-in across any of their sub-systems, which is what you'd normally see under one company roof.

 

[trayloader]

Ok, but wouldn't those sold puts only be in the open interest chart and not the volume chart?

I´m still convinced this "friendly faced" LEO guy is onto something. The "no limits"/being a whale attitude smells like a CN state orchestrated steady takeover attempt.
One guy cannot move the needle.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I´m still convinced this "friendly faced" LEO guy is onto something. The "no limits"/being a whale attitude smell like a stat orchestrated steady takeover attempt.
One guy cannot move the needle.

Here's a chuckle - I had a theory one time that Leo was Elon spelled funny. When everyone here showed me a picture of the Uncle, he was standing next to Elon and I again asked, "which one is Leo?" Silly me, but when nothing is as it appears, my creative side kicks in... So I'm with you on WhoisLeoReally?

 

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone know what is the cycle time for the IDRA 9000t casting/press ?

I would make a rough guess of around 10% slower than the 6000 ton machine. Of course it would vary depending upon the mass and thickness of the casting too. It's also possible the latest generation of casting machines has improved thermal controls that could reduce cycle times below what one might expect. That's why I would estimate 10% slower. I think Tesla was already over-clocking the 6000 ton machines.

We won't know for sure until we see it in action, even then it could speed up at any point without warning.

 

[mongo]

A quote from @Papafox daily chart analysis: Here.

“What is so strange about the options volumes on Wednesday is all the action in the 160s and higher puts. I have no idea why”

Does anyone have any insight on the implications of this? Thanks in advance.

Deep in the money strikes may indicate desire to accumulate, unless paired with a buy as a spread.

Selling in the money puts is a way to (theoretically) acquire shares without running up the stock price. If assigned, the shares are cheaper than the stock would have been if purchased at at the time of writing/ selling the put due to inital time value.

If the stock jumps and the put expires out of the money, they still pocket all the premium, which is more than the price change from sale/ write to strike. They would miss out on rise above strike though.

On the other hand, they could also buy puts below the current price along with selling puts above it as a short term bullish volatility play. The spread between strikes (minus credit in premium) is the max at risk which allows for a larger position, more delta, and more potential profit in the short term.

All assuming those were sold puts...

 

[Singuy]

I´m still convinced this "friendly faced" LEO guy is onto something. The "no limits"/being a whale attitude smells like a CN state orchestrated steady takeover attempt.
One guy cannot move the needle.

That will be foolish. You can't even take over carvana as they have orchestrated a poison pill. Trying to take over Tesla will be laughable as an individual stockholder.

 

[NicoV]

I think he made comment recently about more forced buying later this month.

Two days ago:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615367863996649473

If he has the money to be assigned those puts at $160, I don’t think there’s a big problem. He will have received some premium for selling these puts, so his cost basis for those newly acquired shares will be below $160, maybe not that much above the current share price.
He does make it sound like he has that money.
Edit: and he does look like a HODL’er, so that virtually removes those shares from the market.

 

[SO16]

Ugh. I don’t think this will go over well.

Hopefully there is stronger evidence than simply “using the wrong words”.

Elon Musk didn't lie but just used the 'wrong words' in his Tesla funding tweet, his lawyer says

The "funding secured" trial against Tesla boss Elon Musk got underway on Wednesday, with lawyers arguing the billionaire did not commit fraud.

www.yahoo.com

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Ugh. I don’t think this will go over well.

Hopefully there is stronger evidence than simply “using the wrong words”.

Elon Musk didn't lie but just used the 'wrong words' in his Tesla funding tweet, his lawyer says

The "funding secured" trial against Tesla boss Elon Musk got underway on Wednesday, with lawyers arguing the billionaire did not commit fraud.

www.yahoo.com

How is this still being talked about like 5 years later?

 

[SO16]

How is this still being talked about like 5 years later?

Trial just now going.

The whole thing is ridiculous. But I’m sure the “shareholders” (aka shorts) smell blood in the water.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So, how do you "Inverse Cramer" this?

Jim Cramer just said the S&P 500 is at a crossroads, poised to either tumble further or roar higher

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615863753462931456

 

[Mengy]

How is this still being talked about like 5 years later?

It's a FUD attack angle, a way for the anti-Tesla people to keep on the offensive in an effort to hurt or slow Tesla and Elon down.

It's not going away anytime soon I'm afraid.

 

[Singuy]

So, how do you "Inverse Cramer" this?

Jim Cramer just said the S&P 500 is at a crossroads, poised to either tumble further or roar higher

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615863753462931456

You sell option is the inverse, betting that s&p will flatline

 

[larmor]

Trial just now going.

The whole thing is ridiculous. But I’m sure the “shareholders” (aka shorts) smell blood in the water.

They smell their own blood in the water. Anything to distract from the upcoming cybertuck production and ongoing roll out of FSD software.

 

[MartinAustin]

Ugh. I don’t think this will go over well.

Hopefully there is stronger evidence than simply “using the wrong words”.

Elon Musk didn't lie but just used the 'wrong words' in his Tesla funding tweet, his lawyer says

The "funding secured" trial against Tesla boss Elon Musk got underway on Wednesday, with lawyers arguing the billionaire did not commit fraud.

www.yahoo.com

TSLA is currently 4.5x $420. How did investors get hurt? (shorts are not investors IMO)

 

[Electroman]

How is this still being talked about like 5 years later?

Simple - the haters, the media, the shorts, the establishment, everyone of them are desperate to kill this company off and finish Musk. So they are trying every avenue possible. Media is doing its job to blow this up into the fraud of the century. Media is the No 1 villain here. They will do anything to get rid of this man.

 

[FastEddieB]

So, how do you "Inverse Cramer" this?

Jim Cramer just said the S&P 500 is at a crossroads, poised to either tumble further or roar higher…

What a pathetically useless “prediction”.