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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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When a company leases a car out, if the car is worth more than the residual value on the books, they book the difference as profit. Over the past couple years, the big automakers have been living large on a huge windfall from lease returns with huge residual values...
I agree with your post almost completely. However in the quoted words I think you exaggerate the benefit of higher resale values compared with residual values. Historically when residual values are less than resale values purchase options are exercised at high levels. The lessors do benefit, but much less than it would appear.

Conversely, when residual value is higher than resale value lease returns radically rise.

What that history means is that lessors typically make more consistent profits on Money Factor (i.e. interest) has they do on gains from lease returns. Tesla has been an exception for Model 3 due to the absence of a termination purchase option. Of course that is not so now.

OTOH recent Tesla price action must be wreaking havoc with lease returns from many BEV's.
There will be reporting on that in Automotive News a few months from now, if not before.
 
Deep in the money strikes may indicate desire to accumulate, unless paired with a buy as a spread.

Selling in the money puts is a way to (theoretically) acquire shares without running up the stock price. If assigned, the shares are cheaper than the stock would have been if purchased at at the time of writing/ selling the put due to inital time value.

If the stock jumps and the put expires out of the money, they still pocket all the premium, which is more than the price change from sale/ write to strike. They would miss out on rise above strike though.

On the other hand, they could also buy puts below the current price along with selling puts above it as a short term bullish volatility play. The spread between strikes (minus credit in premium) is the max at risk which allows for a larger position, more delta, and more potential profit in the short term.

All assuming those were sold puts...
Deep in the money (DITM) strikes is an excellent method to accumulate (or liquidate) significant positions while minimizing the overall impact to the security during the accumulation (or liquidation) period, especially when in concert with staggered expiration dates which align to when one wishes to complete the transactions. For smaller positions (generally under 8 figures depending on the security's float, definitely anything under 7 figures) one might as well simply purchase or sell the security directly. For larger positions, one would generally try to avoid placing a direct order which would quickly run thru the existing buy / sell order book that is anywhere near current price.

Note that this works with calls as well as puts. Let's assume one is accumulating a significant position (the reverse works the same for liquidating, of course). If one is selling DITM (high above current price) puts or buying DITM (far below current price), it generally shows clear intent to purchase a set block of shares over a set period, as most 'traders' in options will be seeking higher leverage from strike prices closer to the current price. Hence, accumulating via these methods provides the other party (market makers, generally, but also at times other investment firms) to acquire shares to satisfy those DITM sold-puts or purchased-calls gradually over time, rather than in a compressed manner, and also allows the other party to find alternative investments to replace the position one is buying from them. The primary difference between selling DITM puts and buying DITM calls is minor, but one could argue that buying DITM calls conveys an even stronger sense of commitment to acquiring the blocks of shares.

Naturally, there are times when one either doesn't care about the impact to the stock price and will just run thru the order book to complete their accumulation / liquidation (or perhaps they are intentionally trying to do so in order to change the current share price for some reason). But I would posit that DITM options are generally the preferred way to accumulate / liquidate significant positions.

What I find most intriguing with respect to the presumed large put sales by Mr. Koguan (I have no clear independent validation of the position(s) but also no reason to dispute the various numbers being posted by him and others) is that it is not clear at all that these were *DITM* sold puts to indicate clear desire to accumulate. It is quite feasible that these were initially sold by him when they were out of the money, with the expectation of TSLA rising (or at least staying flat) and the sold puts decreasing in value to be bought back cheaply or left to expire worthless. Or perhaps there was an intent to establish a base floor price, to discourage sales below that price (if so, it failed as share selling supply continued to exceed share purchase demand at each price step down). Mr. Koguan's commentary r.e. being 'forced' to purchase shares now lends credence to his sold puts *not* indicating a true desire to accumulate, IMHO.
 
Wow, Jacksonville must have really increased in Population recently! ;)🤣

edit: my idiocracy confirmed.
Really it was my fault for not being clear. Sorry about my overly terse comment, a rarity for me. For those who didn't catch it:
As I unclearly pointed out Jacksonville is large by area, not by center city. Jacksonville is the largest city in the continental US at 2265 sq.km, only three Alaskan ones are larger. All of the large ones, like the largest one, Sitka, AK, have small population relative to the size.
In Robot terms most of Jacksonville area is rural, then there is suburban that si growing rapidly and has relatively easier FSD challenges and the small center city which is not so difficult as, say, Boston, but has constant disruptions, construction and diversion.

That is the context of my discussion.
 
Simple - the haters, the media, the shorts, the establishment, everyone of them are desperate to kill this company off and finish Musk. So they are trying every avenue possible. Media is doing its job to blow this up into the fraud of the century. Media is the No 1 villain here. They will do anything to get rid of this man.
Even simpler - the trial just started.
 
Rivian and Lucid got hammered today. Perhaps people are realizing that a recession (or whatever it is) plus Tesla's pricing power is bad news for anyone else trying to sell premium EVs.

Investors in Rivian and Lucid may also be getting jittery after hearing the recent news on Arcimoto (they've halted production and could well be seeking bankruptcy if they can't raise a lot more funds).
 
Rivian and Lucid got hammered today. Perhaps people are realizing that a recession (or whatever it is) plus Tesla's pricing power is bad news for anyone else trying to sell premium EVs.
Well bears workshop drone flight got some people worried because there are like 1400 cars, or an entire quarters worth of deliveries sitting on the logistic lot. Some people are pointing to demand problems since you can order a lucid right now for immediate delivery.

 
Conversely, when residual value is higher than resale value lease returns radically rise.

What that history means is that lessors typically make more consistent profits on Money Factor (i.e. interest) has they do on gains from lease returns. Tesla has been an exception for Model 3 due to the absence of a termination purchase option. Of course that is not so now.
Its a great point. But there are still likely to be significant returns, maybe 1 in 10 or more. Some people lease because they can’t afford to buy and when the payoff arrives they don’t have financing ready.

Regardless, what happens when resale is lower than residual is the really nasty part. Then they have to start booking losses. When all of these cars were leased out based on higher purchase prices, what is the residual calculated against? This might be an issue for Tesla as well in 2024 and 2025, but growth will cover it up.
 
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Well bears workshop drone flight got some people worried because there are like 1400 cars, or an entire quarters worth of deliveries sitting on the logistic lot. Some people are pointing to demand problems since you can order a lucid right now for immediate delivery.

The writing is essentially on the wall at this point for Lucid. Rivian still has a chance to carve out it's niche with their trucks...if they can get costs under control very soon.

But for Lucid, the signs are all pointing to bankruptcy by the end of 2023 even if the economy just goes into a small mild recession. They have no pricing power. They get zero benefits from the IRA and the bleeding money.
 
The writing is essentially on the wall at this point for Lucid. Rivian still has a chance to carve out it's niche with their trucks...if they can get costs under control very soon.

But for Lucid, the signs are all pointing to bankruptcy by the end of 2023 even if the economy just goes into a small mild recession. They have no pricing power. They get zero benefits from the IRA and the bleeding money.
You mean the smooth talking accent won't save them again? :)
 
The writing is essentially on the wall at this point for Lucid. Rivian still has a chance to carve out it's niche with their trucks...if they can get costs under control very soon.

But for Lucid, the signs are all pointing to bankruptcy by the end of 2023 even if the economy just goes into a small mild recession. They have no pricing power. They get zero benefits from the IRA and the bleeding money.
I’d be surprised if the Saudis let them fail.