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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This was my thinking as well when they came out with the Hummer 2+ years ago to premier their new battery platform. After thinking about it a bit, I just don’t think they have the engineering talent to pull it off.

The image I posted above was only half joking. You look at everything they’ve produced and there is a 12-18“ + slab under the cab of batteries. All of their new Ultium EVs are thick as a brick and weigh 1500 pounds more than the competing Tesla.

I don’t think they have the skills to make a fast, light vehicle. If they made the ‘vette perform like a ‘vette, it would weigh 5,000 pounds+ like the LRYIQ.

Wasn’t a failure of strategy, its a failure of execution. Someone at GM might well have thought about this very idea, then the engineers sat down and drew up what it would look like…


Also, a 1.5kWh cell?? Maybe they can pull out of the parking garage.
Every time I see a new EV without a frunk, I don't care really at all about the lost storage, but I do immediately think they built a bloated engineering mess. It just tells me they are either A. Lazy, or B. Unimaginative and require 3rd party suppliers to do anything of value.
 
Every time I see a new EV without a frunk, I don't care really at all about the lost storage, but I do immediately think they built a bloated engineering mess. It just tells me they are either A. Lazy, or B. Unimaginative and require 3rd party suppliers to do anything of value.
Isn’t this pretty much every non-Tesla car?

I know the Rivians and the F150 have good sized Frunks, but they are so much bigger there is a lot of room to hide incompetence.
 
Go look at the Model Y's actually left in inventory. All but like 5 are above $55k in price. With the $7500 credit available below that, that's a big gap to bridge for a lot of people. S/X inventory levels didn't budge.

There are also very few 7-seater model Y's available which would also be evidence that the tax credit is helping drive sales.

I did a little spot check on the inventory at major markets in the United States. The numbers on Matt Jung's website appear directionally correct and plausible to me for the methodology that he uses. Important to remember that these aren't precisely the number of inventory cars since it seems like duplicate configurations in the same location aren't displayed multiple times. I think the duplicate listing issue is probably overemphasized though and it should mainly affect the largest markets with the largest inventories. The numbers likely move up and down based on inventory in the non-saturated markets. Probably can't focus too much on minute movements of the inventory (even though I can't help myself). The relative inventory numbers (current vs past) are probably useful though.

I am a little disappointed at the sales above $55k price point for those that don't qualify for the tax credit (as it shouldn't theoretically matter at first glance), but the more I think about it, the tax credit could matter. If you don't qualify for the tax credit, the resale value on your $55k tesla is going to be lower than it would have been since someone with a nearly identical vehicle got it for a price $7.5k less. Not sure if buyers are that super calculating when buying a car, but I suppose it's possible. Tesla should just mostly make the trims that qualify for the credit. I'd still have the tax credit in place than not as we would be in a world of hurt without it.

Also kind of wish that Tesla would have used fleet sales a little more strategically in retrospect. It would be nice to have a way to shunt excess inventory to Hertz or whomever else when there are demand pockets. If it means a slight discount, would be worth it.
 
No idea of the validity of the survey methodology, so take it for what it’s worth.

Can never be sure without looking underneath the hood of the survey, but he should be motivated by trying to get the most accurate data and not push a specific bull/bear narrative. He also usually makes reasoned comments about TSLA, so I take this as a positive.
 
If we only had a pill to cure stupidity and ignorance.
I have several neighbors that wait for EV Jeeps and some other smoke. Those are irrelevant for Tesla.



Hope PETA will not sue as a proxy for oil lords like this 420 "lawsuit"


This will not be an issue once all vehicles use autonomy and roads are designed properly.


If @Papafox is asking questions, that is a new chapter in here. What a time to be alive!

Perhaps the weird options volume @Papafox mentions has to do with folks jockeying around for put assignments in case of a run up on Friday? Just a guess.🤷‍♂️ I’ve been wondering what happens when there are a ton of puts expiring on the same day, as is the case on Friday (according to the spotgamma video posted up-thread).

Presumably if the put covering pushes the stock price up past the exercise price of some other puts that would’ve been assigned, notices aren’t sent and they expire. Perhaps there’s a way to skew the odds of the random assignment of a notice from the Options Clearing Corporation?

I know, I know, I’m suggesting our financial system isn’t entirely fair and transparent. Say it isn’t so…
 
This was my thinking as well when they came out with the Hummer 2+ years ago to premier their new battery platform. After thinking about it a bit, I just don’t think they have the engineering talent to pull it off.

It's management. I worked in software dev for over a decade before moving into management, where I've now also been over a decade. Worked full time for several companies and corporations, and did consulting work for several others.

It's almost always a management problem. It's amazing to me that so many companies stay in business but then I realize their competition is full of the same management problems. When someone like Musk comes along, who can organize and run a very efficient company, his companies can eat any lunch they choose.

It's far more likely to meet engineers that "get it" than it is to find management that "gets it" and will efficiently move the company towards a vision. Most established companies pivot slower than a snail.
 
It's management. I worked in software dev for over a decade before moving into management, where I've now also been over a decade. Worked full time for several companies and corporations, and did consulting work for several others.

It's almost always a management problem. It's amazing to me that so many companies stay in business but then I realize their competition is full of the same management problems. When someone like Musk comes along, who can organize and run a very efficient company, his companies can eat any lunch they choose.

It's far more likely to meet engineers that "get it" than it is to find management that "gets it" and will efficiently move the company towards a vision. Most established companies pivot slower than a snail.
Companies that have nice flat management structures like Tesla are usually some of the best.

That said, it’s engineering too. Companies like GM have a lot of trouble hiring good engineering talent.
 
I was just looking at the coming Nissan Ariya (small electric SUV) to see where it lined up. OMG starting at $43k and more like $60k for the larger battery it's gonna get slaughtered by the Model Y...
Yah. But I think they will be built in very low numbers anyway. Our old leaf dealer said it would be 2025 before they get one in the showroom to look at. And our local dealer said they are not even going to do the necessary dealer upgrades to sell EV’s just to sell a half dozen Arriyas per year. I don’t think they’ll build many.

Jmho.
 
Also, a 1.5kWh cell??

Spec is 119 KW front motor powered by a 1.9KWh battery. That's over a 60C discharge rate, which means a full discharge in less than a minute. They hybrid Corvette sounds more an F1-inspired KERS package to me.

Realistically, the battery would probably exceed thermal limits in far less time than that. So maybe software limited to 10s operation at max power? Just enough for a quarter mile sprint?
 
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I was just looking at the coming Nissan Ariya (small electric SUV) to see where it lined up. OMG starting at $43k and more like $60k for the larger battery it's gonna get slaughtered by the Model Y...
The Ariya base battery pack offers a range of 216 miles. Also, because it is assembled in Japan, it doesn’t get the $7500 tax credit.
 
Gary Black claiming that lots of funds are showing interest in TSLA now that it has been beaten down so much.

It’s going to get really bumpy if the institutions start grabbing shares before the bears get out.

I’ve got some TCHquila ready for this earnings call. I have a feeling I’m going to need it one way or the other.
 
And right in the Family Joules, VW Group: :D

Tesla Heat Pump | More Range in Cold Weather | Tesla on Youtube (1 hr ago)


In case you don't know why this is funny, here's this week's news from VW Group:
The Universe maximizes irony! (but apparently not silicony) :p
 
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