Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Yes, but that just begs the question, why didn't he follow through and actually use his SpaceX shares to buy Tesla? My memory is fuzzy on the sequence of events, but the Saudi deal fell through quickly, and then what happened? Did Elon spend some time trying to pull together another consortium of investors?

He said on Twitter at the time that the biggest dealbreaker was that small investors wouldn’t be able to come along. Here is the blog post:

 
Following up on OpenAI as it relates to Elon and Tesla, my guess is that notwithstanding the parting of ways, he wanted Dojo to provide the compute for OpenAI rather than Microsoft. Remember that he tweeted a question about compute costs to the OpenAI team. Maybe Dojo isn't ready quite yet, but it may be ready in the future for an OpenAI funding round. Or maybe Tesla simply lost the bidding on this round. I noticed a few weeks ago that Elon started following Satya Nadella on Twitter.

Nah. Dojo is purpose built for Tesla's workloads. It is not a cloud AI compute platform. Worlds apart.

At the time of the split, many years ago, Elon stated he didn't like OpenAI's focus on natural language processing. Elon and Tesla needed more work on vision, which is why he hired Karpathy away from OpenAI and had him focus on vision. This goes back like 7 years or so.

The irony is that while Tesla is close to solving vision, OpenAI is close to solving NLP, which, IMHO, is needed to easily train robots (so you can tell them what to do). Both vision and NLP are needed, I think.
 
Last edited:
He said on Twitter at the time that the biggest dealbreaker was that small investors wouldn’t be able to come along. Here is the blog post:


Oh right. Yeah, that's kinda of the point of a public company, that it allows unrestricted retail investors, but then you have to deal with heavy handed regulation by the SEC, and, apparently, naked short selling (thanks Short seller Enrichment Commission!). Elon really didn't think that one through...
 
Yes, but that just begs the question, why didn't he follow through and actually use his SpaceX shares to buy Tesla? My memory is fuzzy on the sequence of events, but the Saudi deal fell through quickly, and then what happened? Did Elon spend some time trying to pull together another consortium of investors?
I don't remember it being a funding issue but lots of investors like Cathie Wood petitioned to not have Tesla go private, and that it was difficult to have retail keep their shares as a private company.
 
Yes, but that just begs the question, why didn't he follow through and actually use his SpaceX shares to buy Tesla? My memory is fuzzy on the sequence of events, but the Saudi deal fell through quickly, and then what happened? Did Elon spend some time trying to pull together another consortium of investors?
My understanding is that he did not follow through with the take private deal as there was no way to include retail investors. He mentioned Cathy Woods in the testimony today as having asked him to not go through with the prviate deal as her fund that has a lot of retail investors could not hold shares of a private company. He also mentioned feedback on twitter from several retail share holders that informed his decision.
 
Not sure about his sources but if you use the numbers from US refineries it's much lower than the numbers he quotes. As I said previously it's less than .5kWh of actual electricity per gallon.
Where does one get verified (real) numbers from US refineries on this subject matter?

As I pointed out upstream, at least in Alberta, there is a large use of electricity that doesn’t coincide with the population count.
 
He said on Twitter at the time that the biggest dealbreaker was that small investors wouldn’t be able to come along. Here is the blog post:

Musk doesn’t really care about public/ private, he just pretty much hates derivatives which screw with the share price.

He sees shareholders as investors and anyone else is a parasite that destabilize the share price. I tend to agree with him. Though I’m a bit of a hypocrite there, since I have options.

Imagine how much less emotion driven and reactionary if you could only buy/ sell Tesla shares once a quarter.
 
I don't understand your question, whether or not anyone has started looking at the 20 million cars by 2030 from a numbers perspective. That's the ONLY way I have ever looked at that goal, from a numbers perspective. And I think it a realistic and achievable goal. Whether Tesla achieves it or not is up to Tesla, no one else.

Elon is the one who made the goal, no doubt with consultation of others within the company who understood the challenges and opportunities. No doubt it's a monstrous goal but I think Tesla is very likely to achieve it, particularly if you give them a little wiggle room in terms of one or two years or a couple million in production. You see, Elon doesn't make such well-defined goals without considering how he will do it. Because, yes, that's an ambitious share of the auto market. But his plan makes sense. Elon realized, in order to have the least chance of failure, he needed to be the best manufacturer of autos. That's why he is so focused on operational efficiency and designing the cars to bring the best value to consumers.

Unfortunately, most people are lazy thinkers because they assume things they shouldn't assume. One of the most popular; that it costs a certain amount of money, plus or minus 5%, to make a car of a certain spec. Elon is constantly challenging every aspect of that assumption and proving it wrong. From the design and engineering of the cars they build to the way they are built and delivered. Elon wants to use smarter ways of doing everything to lower the price to the absolute minimum. He knows the theoretical floor is the cost of the raw materials. So he strives to create the same functionality with less material by using that material smarter. That's what's behind the use of gigacasting. It's also what's behind the constant effort to make the motors and aero more efficient. Because that requires less batteries which makes the car lighter and requires less batteries again. He even works on making the cost of the raw materials cost less.

I won't go into every way Elon and his teams are focused on making cars cost less because it covers every conceivable aspect of the process from reducing organizational/management deadweight, right down to the advertising and delivery. The combined efficiencies are headed towards being able to make and deliver the cars for half the cost of competitors. At that point, it's not a question of whether you can get 1/3 of the market, it's a given. Probably a lot more than a third of the market. A better car for less money. That's good for car buyers, new and used, and it's good for the economy and a car that costs less to build has a lower environmental impact. Even advertising dollars have a carbon footprint as does keeping acres of new cars in the sun waiting to find buyers. And Tesla's competition is really good at both of those things. Delivering real value to buyers? Not so much. That's why they are shrinking like Shrinky Dinks, and Tesla is growing like a wildfire in a dry pine forest. I expect that trend to continue because new car buyers like to get real value for their money and the competition is totally unequipped to deliver that value.

In my entire life, I have never witnessed a company perform at such an exceptional level. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla take over 50% of the market before 2036. Both Ford and GM achieved that at different points in history. This is what tends to happen when you think without artificial limitations.
That was partly my question - and thanks for your response. I am not doubting Tesla's manufacturing prowess, ability to sell cars at industry leading margins, or ability to continue to grow. I'm more concerned about how achievable it is to go from 1.3M vehicles to 20M vehicles in 8 years with the current line up, factories, etc given what happened in December with cars at the higher price points. I also believe that other car companies (whomever survives) will likely stick around because they've made Tesla-like improvements to manufacturing, etc.

The question was more regarding those who do a DCF on Tesla and are possibly reconsidering the number of vehicle sold several years out given recent inputs. If you think Q4 or 2022 was an outlier, then the goal maybe moves back a year. If you think the s-curve starts levelling off, then the entry point into the stock becomes more important. Again - this is more for the valuation argument given there's a contingent of folks here who are probably still up a ton with the stock in the low $100s, and others who could be down 50% or more.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jkirkwood001
Where does one get verified (real) numbers from US refineries on this subject matter?

As I pointed out upstream, at least in Alberta, there is a large use of electricity that doesn’t coincide with the population count.
That may be because of more difficult to refine tar sands. EIA.gov should have the numbers for the US.
 
He said on Twitter at the time that the biggest dealbreaker was that small investors wouldn’t be able to come along. Here is the blog post:

Which is incredibly nice of him to think about, as it put most of us into a much better position than we would have been if we were forced out back then. And of course we rewarded this by buying more expensive Tesla products with all the FU money we got from the shorts over the next years until the beginning of 2022 - love my 3 powerwalls and performance model 3 :)
 
Reno Gazette Journal - 15:10 EST today:

Tesla to build $3.6 billion battery, electric semi truck manufacturing facility in Northern Nevada

Excerpt:

...The new Tesla project will benefit from several incentives, said Haris Talwar, a White House spokesperson.

“They’ll get production tax credits and their vehicles … qualify for consumer tax credits from President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act,” Talwar said...

OK, that's two politicians confirming the investment (Nevada Gov. and White House). Can't wait to hear what Tesla has to say about it! I wonder if the Nevada Gov. got his days mixed up and Tesla was set to announce Wednesday at the earnings call rather than today. I mean, Tesla is in a quiet period??
 
Had an interesting conversation with a former work mate. He did a test drive in a 2023 model Y. (He has been in ours). He was dissapointed in the lack of parking sensors and parking tech for the price and class of the car. I was surprised to hear they hadn’t been restored to the new cars. I though the plan was to do all that with cameras.

Anyway. He has put his purchase plans on hold until he gets some clarification from tesla via email.

So is there a plan or is that just the result of an all vision car?

Thoughts?
Some time a few weeks ago, and probably in another thread, I noted how my (May 2018) TM3 suddenly changed what was being depicted on the UI with respect to the close quarters of my parking garage.

Much added details of my surroundings have been added to what has been depicted.

It was after I had installed 2022.44.25 or .30.

Based on what I see in the UI when in the close quarters of the parking garage, IMO the USS’s in my car have been decommissioned or, alternatively, they are running in parallel with the cameras.

The coloured arcs depicted around the front or rear of my vehicle used to also have a distance (from an obstruction) that would begin to show (in cm) countdowns from ~99 cm.

Now, the countdowns don’t show up until ~65 cm.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 30seconds
Reno Gazette Journal - 15:10 EST today:

Tesla to build $3.6 billion battery, electric semi truck manufacturing facility in Northern Nevada

Excerpt:

...The new Tesla project will benefit from several incentives, said Haris Talwar, a White House spokesperson.

“They’ll get production tax credits and their vehicles … qualify for consumer tax credits from President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act,” Talwar said...

Interesting, so I wonder if Austin will still make the Semi too, or has that changed?

They are likely planning to make the Semi and the batteries for the Semi together in that one new Nevada plant. Would makes sense from a production point of view.
 
Interesting, so I wonder if Austin will still make the Semi too, or has that changed?
When did they ever say that Austin will make the Semi? (Hard to change something that was never said.)

In the Q3 shareholder deck they only said the Semi would be made in Nevada:

1674595083704.png


In the Q2 deck the location for the Semi production was still listed as TBD.
 
Cheaper Chinese EVs are mainly due to -
  • LFP battery packs.
  • Smaller vechicle size.
  • Lower specs, cheaper msterials.
  • Lower labour costs.
Tesla's efficient manufacturing largely cancels out lower labour costs, everything else on the list Tesla csn do.

That's true in the current state of largely separated markets. Once Chinese and Western cars saturate the global market, they will be compared like for like and the three first bullets will also cancel out in terms of being competitive advantages.

Long term it will come down to things like the ability to hire the smartest people, access to raw material, government favoritism and most importantly, pace of innovation.